Villain is 18/13/3, agg factor of 2.6 over 1k hands.

Agg freq Flop 34%, Turn 42% River 58%

Pretty decent player, but other than that niether of us have shown down a bluff with each other so no major history.


Full Tilt Poker $100.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Hero (SB): $101.00
BB: $108.00
UTG: $226.05
MP: $109.25
CO: $133.15
BTN: $193.20

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is SB with T 8
4 folds, Hero raises to $3, BB calls $2

Flop: ($6.00) 2 5 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $4.00, BB calls $4

Turn: ($14.00) 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $9.00, BB calls $9

River: ($32.00) 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $20.00, BB raises to $92, Hero ?

It was an insta shove if that makes a difference. Just wanted a quick line check.

wtf trivial fold

tough spot, but against this tight of a player I think it is a fold

what are his WWSF WTSD W$SD?

cry a little as u fold

Can someone explain to me why this is a fold. I call here thinking he could have a 5 or a straight easily. Wrong?

trip 5's is not likely b/c preflop tends to fold out most low cards. even if he has a 5, a 5 can only call here, not raise. same for a straight, can only call not raise.

the board is paired and there are three parts to a flush out there as well.

this opponent is either bluffing or he has a big hand, and trip 5's as well as a straight are only marginal hands on this board.

Im not sure either, I dont think its a trivial fold, but it depends on how your BvB battles have been going imo. This has the markings of a pre-planned bluff, he could be doing this with a A5/45/34 if he is bad

one thing that kind of makes me lean towards an easier fold is that a lot of the middle suited connector cards that a BB might call with in this situation (67s,78s,56s) arent in his range obv

Over 1K hands you should have some read on his overbet shoves.

I'll say one thing, and suprised no-one has pointed this out (I think it's key):
his River Agg% is completely ******ed.
58%. Are you kidding me? That's way above the most aggressive players I have similar samples on (even factoring in his tight range, running well, etc. it still has to be bad/ridiculous).

This guy must be fighting for River pots so much it's untrue.

So I think bet/folding everything but a boat on the River is probably pretty bad versus him. Particularly with a flush.

Do yourself a favour: go scout his River bets in HEM/PT and make some notes for future spots like this versus him...

This is why I want to know opponent's WWSF, WTSD, and W$SD. The values of those stats might make it clear that he needs to call.