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100nl, Flop Nuts, Can I Save  on River 100nl, Flop Nuts, Can I Save  on River

04-04-2012 , 05:08 PM
Villain is 36/20 fish. Folds to c-bets 56%. And only goes to showdown 27%, so he's on the less crazy side.

CO: $118.57 (118.6 bb)
BTN: $142.06 (142.1 bb)
SB: $106.69 (106.7 bb)
BB: $98.50 (98.5 bb)
Hero (UTG): $103.63 (103.6 bb)
MP: $232.95 (233 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 8 9
Hero raises to $3, MP calls $3, 4 folds

Flop: ($7.50) 7 T 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $6.62, MP calls $6.62

Turn: ($20.74) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $17.55, MP calls $17.55

River: ($55.84) 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $46.88 MP raises to $93.76

I have $30 left. And it seems impossible that my hand is good. But I'm getting such good odds. I really wanted to just fold and save $30.

Also, should I have sized things differently after the turn paired to leave myself room to fold? He was bad so I was kinda auto-piloting going for max value.
04-04-2012 , 05:11 PM
Quote:
Villain is 36/20 fish.
id call here. if hes a fish he can deffo have worse hands here, im sure were getting odds here to call all day everday
04-04-2012 , 05:13 PM
I think against a fish, no you can't fold, as he could have A6 or another 89 hand (and possibly very rarely something else I can't think of).
04-04-2012 , 05:20 PM
i'd just size my bets bigger and overbet jam river vs a fish.
as played i'd still call as i expect the fish to have 6x some of the time at least. i also expect the fish to raise sets/two pairs on this flop, so i'm not all that upset calling here.
04-04-2012 , 05:49 PM
Seems to be a clear call for $30. You need to be good less than 20% of the time, and although I can't stove anything right now, just by counting card combos you're well above that figure against a range of TT, 77, 66, 76, 98, and A6s.
04-04-2012 , 06:00 PM
Man I always hate when this happens, but I think it's still a call even though we're not good very often.

Board: 7h Td 6d 6c 2h

Hand 0: 20.455% { 9h8h }
Hand 1: 79.545% { TT, 77-66, 98s, 76s, 98o, 76o }

And that's assuming he's always slow-playing everything, never bluffing, and/or shoving worse for value. Not the worst assumptions against this type of player, but they will show up w/ some rando 6x or whatever at least some % of the time.
04-04-2012 , 06:10 PM
just pot pot jam vs fish imo
04-04-2012 , 06:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mintewek
just pot pot jam vs fish imo
Yeah, this too.
04-04-2012 , 06:21 PM
Yeah I really need to experiment more w/ different bet sizing against fish. Lately I've been over-betting flops like this and it seems to work reasonably well. Fish seem to care more about the absolute $ amount vs what % of the pot it is.
04-04-2012 , 09:51 PM
Ye not going to fold. I also agree that shoving river is +ev vs this player. He isn't folding overpairs let alone trips
04-06-2012 , 01:39 PM
Like other people have said, pot pot shove. As played can't fold.

      
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