100NL: Flop is all clubs, I have Ac and A high GSSD; He raises - Small Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

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100NL: Flop is all clubs, I have Ac and A high GSSD; He raises

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02-28-2011 , 06:11 AM

Lego05

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 25,234

Villain is 19/16/2.8; 3bet = 6% over 84 sample; Cold Call = 6%; Vs. CBets has folded 3 out of 3

I often fold pre-flop, but I decided to raise here because of a fish in the sb.

[rake removed]

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter By DeucesCracked Poker Videos

BTN: $124.95
SB: $80.30
BB: $100.00
Hero (UTG): $100.00
MP: $68.00
CO: $230.90

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is UTG with A

Hero raises to $4, 1 fold, CO calls $4, 3 folds

Flop: ($9.00) Q

(2 players)
Hero bets $7, CO raises to $24, Hero ???

02-28-2011 , 06:20 AM

Janice7776

adept

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 973

Whats your image, do you have f/e?

02-28-2011 , 06:27 AM

Lego05

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 25,234

Probably something like 26/22 and being decently aggressive.

I've only seen the guy face 4 cbets ... haven't seen much postflop play from him. Not really too much to go on for him specifically to say how much he might be bluff raising here.

02-28-2011 , 07:00 AM

billybeartku

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 5,835

call/bink/stack him. ez game. if you jam here, you're too often getting in bad vs a solid made hand (two pair/flopped flush/set)

you have to realize that ppl don't really bluff raise pfr on a monotone board like this.

02-28-2011 , 07:04 AM

JsTs

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 5,250

Call is bad though

02-28-2011 , 07:05 AM

billybeartku

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 5,835

Quote:

Originally Posted by JsTs

Call is bad though

call is bad but reship is even worse imo.

02-28-2011 , 07:05 AM

Lego05

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 25,234

Quote:

Originally Posted by billybeartku

If I bink the board will be 4 clubs. How easy will it really be to stack him?

02-28-2011 , 07:06 AM

billybeartku

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 5,835

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lego05

If I bink the board will be 4 clubs. How easy will it really be to stack him?

i didn't really mean stack stack him. i mean you can get at least one street of value. he'd for sure get stubborn and call one bet with all his made hand. and on the river, you can just make a small enough bet for him to sigh call.

02-28-2011 , 07:11 AM

JsTs

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 5,250

Quote:

Originally Posted by billybeartku

call is bad but reship is even worse imo.

The only way to win all of villains bbs is to jam flop.

02-28-2011 , 07:13 AM

#10

billybeartku

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 5,835

Quote:

Originally Posted by JsTs

The only way to win all of villains bbs is to jam flop.

and you're okay with shipping in your stack in bad shape vs all his value raise range? If you like variance, be my guest.

02-28-2011 , 07:14 AM

#11

JsTs

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 5,250

Are you looking at stack sizes? It's pretty easy for villain to lolfold if you put a dime in on the turn or river if you hit flush.

02-28-2011 , 07:15 AM

#12

Vanilla Thunder

NVG All-Star

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 16,783

Quote:

Originally Posted by billybeartku

Assuming that we always get one street when we hit, which I definitely don't think we'd (I myself most certainly wouldn't turn my set, which would be sdv at that point into a bluff if I were hero in this spot on a club turn), folding can't be that bad? What do you do in this exact same spot with A

, leaving is with no gutshot?

02-28-2011 , 07:15 AM

#13

billybeartku

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 5,835

Quote:

Originally Posted by JsTs

Are you looking at stack sizes? It's pretty easy for villain to lolfold if you put a dime in on the turn or river if you hit flush.

you really think tha'ts gonna happen? i gurantee you he's gonna call one more street try to boat up with his two pair/set and will get stubborn with his flush hoping that you shut down on the river.

02-28-2011 , 07:17 AM

#14

Vanilla Thunder

NVG All-Star

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 16,783

Quote:

Originally Posted by JsTs

The only way to win all of villains bbs is to jam flop.

I agree with this but we'd be doing ****** as hell vs villains range and it'd most certainly not be a +EV jam.

02-28-2011 , 07:17 AM

#15

billybeartku

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 5,835

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vanilla Thunder

, leaving is with no gutshot?

in my personal opinion, I prefer folding to calling to raising (Ac2d).

02-28-2011 , 07:19 AM

#16

JsTs

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 5,250

Quote:

Originally Posted by billybeartku

and you're okay with shipping in your stack in bad shape vs all his value raise range? If you like variance, be my guest.

Hey, fold might be the best play. Villain needs to fold like <15% of the time to make a jam profitable, but who knows if he's ever raise/folding more than zero%. Flatting flop is definitely fishy though.

02-28-2011 , 07:23 AM

#17

billybeartku

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 5,835

Quote:

Originally Posted by JsTs

i didn't say calling is better than folding, in my opinion, i prefer folding to everything else. it's just that we have a gut shot which if we hit, we're good against 2/3 of his value range (set/two pair).

02-28-2011 , 07:27 AM

#18

JsTs

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 5,250

Yeah so many combos of 2p and sets in his range!!!

02-28-2011 , 07:54 AM

#19

icehawk84

old hand

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 1,725

The problem with calling is that we only get to see one card. It's probably a losing play actually, when you consider that we're never getting paid off on a club turn. We're getting 2.4 to 1 immediate and we're about a 3 to 1 dog to hit on the turn. Villains range is also weighted toward clubs, which means we're even more unlikely to hit. Sometimes we get it in good vs. sets on an offsuit J, but we often get it in bad vs. his flushes as well.

Shoving could also be -EV if he's never raise/folding. I still think I make the play just for image and gambool obv.

02-28-2011 , 08:20 AM

#20

udo lattek

centurion

Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 184

whats his bet% against missed cbet?

you may go for a c/r as you have good equity against any range on the flop

02-28-2011 , 09:56 AM

#21

Gaszzzz

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 2,935

if you don't think he bluffs this flop ever you can just fold. if he does then i like calling because he will continue to bluff on cards that you hit

02-28-2011 , 11:38 AM

#22

sgxou

adept

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 920

you dont have equity to jam here, if we assume the weakest part of his range is two pair here. according to your description i would put villain on made flush or set which have you crushed. bet/fold flop.

02-28-2011 , 12:07 PM

#23

TeddyPicker

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 407

I really want to just check that my maths and assumptions are correct here.

If his raise/call shove range is 2pr, sets and flushes he has 30 value combos at most (assuming he always flats your open w/ KK, QQ and 44, and that he has 54s-JTs and 75s-J9s). I'm not advocating that that is his range, just using that range to set a benchmark for the sake of the following maths.

We have ~35% equity vs that range, so would need ~32% FE for shoving to be better than folding?

Which would in turn mean that he has to have around 14 combos of bluffs or so for shoving to be +ev?

02-28-2011 , 02:34 PM

#24

billybeartku

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 5,835

Quote:

Originally Posted by TeddyPicker

vs a 19/16, AF 2.8 nit on a monotone board, we can safely assume that he doesn't bluff with high frequency, if any at all.

02-28-2011 , 02:38 PM

#25

TeddyPicker

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 407

Quote:

Originally Posted by billybeartku

vs a 19/16, AF 2.8 nit on a monotone board, we can safely assume that he doesn't bluff with high frequency, if any at all.

I wasn't trying to advocate a shove, call or fold tbh, I was just checking that I was doing the underlying maths correctly.

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