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100NL deep table while almost not deep, river sizing 100NL deep table while almost not deep, river sizing

12-30-2012 , 10:47 PM
    Poker Stars, $1/$2, $0.40 ante No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #15189561

    CO: $203.60 (101.8 bb)
    BTN: $410.16 (205.1 bb)
    SB: $325.50 (162.8 bb)
    BB: $540.24 (270.1 bb)
    Hero (MP): $653.52 (326.8 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is MP with 5 6
    Hero raises to $6, CO folds, BTN calls $6, SB calls $5, BB calls $4

    Flop: ($26) 5 9 8 (4 players)
    SB bets $14, BB folds, Hero calls $14, BTN folds

    Turn: ($54) 5 (2 players)
    SB checks, Hero bets $42, SB calls $42

    River: ($138) K (2 players)
    SB checks, Hero bets $150




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    Villain is really weak reg, half-donk probably, running 35/28 with huge 3bet both IP and OOP. Total 3b 16%. He's donking a lot, especially this session, starting with nuttish hands and ending with well i dont know what exactly but i noticed him c/f blanks once his donk gets called.
    He views me as a never folding type of guy, probably bluff-happy too.
    BB standart passive calling station 58/14.
    Thoughts on river sizing?
    And it's 200NL, my bad.
    12-30-2012 , 11:02 PM
    With your image this looks good
    12-30-2012 , 11:05 PM
    Why is villain a weak reg? He plays weird by your description but not necessarily bad. Does he call too much vs. strong ranges?

    I think you only rep JTs as a bluff on the river so I doubt a decent handreader will ever pay you off with worse (unless you turn hands into bluffs a lot).

    If he's bad enough to just go "lol pair/2pair i call" then your river size is ok.
    12-30-2012 , 11:07 PM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mg0698
    With your image this looks good
    what air is in op's range when he calls a bet 4 handed on a drawy board w/ a player left to act?
    12-30-2012 , 11:11 PM
    hate the sizing
    110 and 220 is both better
    12-30-2012 , 11:14 PM
    As optimistic as it sounds, I prefer shoving this river or betting at least 200(because of your image). I doubt that his ranges will be elastic if u bet 50 more.

    And wtf with his flop betsize
    12-30-2012 , 11:25 PM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by JohnnyPanic
    what air is in op's range when he calls a bet 4 handed on a drawy board w/ a player left to act?
    not much maybe 66/77 turned into a bluff or JT
    12-30-2012 , 11:42 PM
    yea dont see the point in betting 150. Go bigger or smaller.
    12-31-2012 , 01:08 AM
    Here's my thoughts:
    If i go a lot bigger like proposed almost 2x pot i ensure myself way too much FE which I dont really want.
    He seems to have in most cases a fairly weak SDV (89/K9 is probably the best hand he can have) like A9/Q9/J9 and maybe some 8x with side equity like 87/86/8T. So all those hands I think really want to call vs me.
    So then a smaller bet, not even PSB bet doesnt make that much sense since im not maximizing value at all.
    What i think I achieve by slight overbet is make him to assume that i polarized my range a bit more while still having a fair amount of bluffs (JT maybe T9 turned into a bluff, some AQ type of hands with BDFD) and maximize my value.
    Also he might have some slowplays in his range (as low as 67) which are never folding yet are always calling. The only hand i 100% of the time am maximizing value by betting 200$ or more is K9.
    One last thing, I dont really ever use 2x potbetting as a part of my game, while often go for a slight overbet, Im just not comfortable with it as it's harded to predict the outcome so for my overall game it's slightly better to bet the size i chose to.
    @cashy & izanagi, why do you specifically hate my sizing? Pagepuga mentioned his range being inelastic but that's really hard to tell and in most cases he's more wrong than right imo.
    Last last thing: he's not good enough to ever make overbet bluffs himself, so because of that don't you think his game influences him to fold more often (if not always) w marginal holdings vs a huge overbet?

    Last edited by tobe4funas; 12-31-2012 at 01:10 AM. Reason: last last thing
    12-31-2012 , 06:53 AM
    It's a good spot to overbet, but make it bigger (or smaller) like people advocated.
    12-31-2012 , 10:12 PM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by tobe4funas
    Here's my thoughts:
    If i go a lot bigger like proposed almost 2x pot i ensure myself way too much FE which I dont really want.
    He seems to have in most cases a fairly weak SDV (89/K9 is probably the best hand he can have) like A9/Q9/J9 and maybe some 8x with side equity like 87/86/8T. So all those hands I think really want to call vs me.
    So then a smaller bet, not even PSB bet doesnt make that much sense since im not maximizing value at all.
    What i think I achieve by slight overbet is make him to assume that i polarized my range a bit more while still having a fair amount of bluffs (JT maybe T9 turned into a bluff, some AQ type of hands with BDFD) and maximize my value.
    Also he might have some slowplays in his range (as low as 67) which are never folding yet are always calling. The only hand i 100% of the time am maximizing value by betting 200$ or more is K9.
    One last thing, I dont really ever use 2x potbetting as a part of my game, while often go for a slight overbet, Im just not comfortable with it as it's harded to predict the outcome so for my overall game it's slightly better to bet the size i chose to.
    @cashy & izanagi, why do you specifically hate my sizing? Pagepuga mentioned his range being inelastic but that's really hard to tell and in most cases he's more wrong than right imo.
    Last last thing: he's not good enough to ever make overbet bluffs himself, so because of that don't you think his game influences him to fold more often (if not always) w marginal holdings vs a huge overbet?

    Like your thought process here. A weak regular is going to simply have an extremely hard time calling down here with his perceived range even if he thinks we are bluffing if we 2x pot it(He could level himself into a call which is what we want though like why the hell would you 2x pot it but I think they find a fold way more often since he is weaker).... I would probably do a pot sized bet on this river if I didn't know how he reacts to overbets. Could go even smaller but if we do a 1/2 pot bet it seems like such a fishy strong bet by us.
    01-02-2013 , 08:53 AM
    I dont hate your sizing tobe.
    is villian aware of the image you have of him? ie does he know u think hes a half donk weak reg..
    either way i think he levels himself and folds all the hands that we actually wanted calls from.

    I kinda agree with cashy as in i like betting like 101-109 on the river

          
    m