HAND 1

Villain at the time was 20/15/2 with 35% steal and 100% fold to 3b over 100 hands (obv small sample).

I hadn't 3 bet much and decided now was a good time. I realize hand wasn't THE BEST to 3 bet with, but sometimes the spot is there and the ideal 3 bet hands aren't coming. I'm comfortable with it, looking more for post-flop analysis. If it REALLY bugs you, pretend its T9s.

No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($33.17)
MP ($40)
CO ($102.50)
Button ($160)
SB ($100)
Hero (BB) ($102.30)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 10, 9
3 folds, Button bets $2.50, 1 fold, Hero raises $8, Button calls $6.50

Flop: ($18.50) K, K, 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $12, Button calls $12

I decide to be turn b/c I picked up some nice equity, and alot of pp's will float this flop/fold turn.

Turn: ($42.50) J (2 players)
Hero bets $24, Button calls $24

River: ($90.50) Q (2 players)
Hero?

What's the best play here? Push? Check/call hope the odd FD pushes? Thing is, not a lot of Kings he has here that I beat, and JJ/QQ are definitely part of his range here. Might c/f even be the best line?

Would love to see others analyze this.

HAND 2

This one's fairly straight forward, so instead of the HH hassle I'll just write this one out.

Assume 6 players, all 110bb effective stacks.

MP with 21/19/6 over ~150 hands opens. He has 50% fold to cBet (2/4). He's folded twice to the 2 3 bets he's faced thus far.

Hero in BB has yet to 3 bet in session, decides to 3 bet now with 65.

MP Calls.

FLOP is T 2 7

CBet? Why, Why not?

Hand 2: Check calling the river seems the intuitive play. Gives villain an opportunity to bluff with missed fd. Boats are definitely possible as are under pair which I doubt is paying you off. he might also valuebet hands like AJ AQ with not to mention Kings. I feel like we do get decent value by checking and calling as we do if we bet and he calls and we don't have to face a bet make soul read to shove situation. However villain has to be thinking that when he bets we fold out worse and only call with better so he might check a lot of hands behind rather than go for thin value

Hand 2: I think this might be a check fold situation or try on bullet. this flop does not hit your perceived range at all and to boot you have 0 equity. If villain is decent you being OOP will be hard to make profit with this flop. though if it is the fist time i've 3bet i'm probably firing the flop no matter what because we might take it down and I dont want it to be obv the next time a dry flop comes and I bet it

hand 2 c/f... his preflop flatting range for ur 3b is probably like 77-JJ, some unpaired suited highcards, TJs, etc...

u should bet when u have pot equity or fold equity, u have neither here

Hand1: If there is JJ and QQ in his range, then there should also be some AK. AK ist 8 combinations but JJ/QQ is only 6 combinations. KQ is another 6 combinations. I don't see a value-bet on the river, but I think betting is still superior than check-folding because of the dead-money. Just geht it in.

Busted draws are not in his range imo.

Hand 2: c/f. You might have some fold-equity, but your pot-equity sucks. So taken together your equity is not sufficient for a profitable c-bet and c/c needs no comment to show that this would be a bad idea.

you really think someone valuebets AQ on this river not to mention AJ??? and what missed flush draws are you talking about, exactly? aren't a lot of FD combos raising the flop anyway?

I would c/f both hands. I think 1 was played fine up until river.

Shove the first hand. While villain can get to the river with a FD, he'll often have put in a raise somewhere, so you can discount busted flush draws from his range some- plus some of his FDs will have paired the Q or J and will be happy to check behind. He'll have a boat a decent amount of the time, but you easily get called by worse often enough to shove. Let him decide if he wants to call down w TT or floats that made a pair or whatever... if he can get to the river w KQ he can get there KT/K9 even, maybe AK though that's less likely with the action.

Second one I'd generally c/f. That board's going to hit his flatting range pretty well and you have no equity.

I think if we shove we HAVE to get called by AQ to make it better than c/fing, and I think that can be somewhat discounted already due to flop/turn action, and even if he does get to the river with it, he has to be afraid we're nutted since he can easily be nutted too... also, I'm assuming we have a really clean image and no aggressive dynamic to speak of

dude we bet like 60% of pot on the turn; a busted flush draw is possible. yes if villain is the type to have AJ or AQ then it is possible that he may choose to value bet considering we aren't checking with a boat. we didn't have much of a read on villain so i think these are possibilities at this limit. also how did OP play the river incorrectly

what I mean is, name the combos of missed FDs that he will bet on the river, taking into account PF/flop/turn action.

betting either AQ or AJ is incredibly ******ed. you think he expects us to check-call with like JT or something?

I didn't say he played the river incorrectly, we don't even know how he played the river. I said I like his play up until the river

yeah based on OP i'm not sure if villain will bet the river either as I prev stated; however at 100nl I think you do see it esp from AJ more so than aq unless its AQ of s. OP made a good bet size on the turn and that also looks like its the final bullet to a lot of 100nlers. and misunderstood your statement about the river

I did a quick stove... you'd probably want to discount QQ/AK/JJ to some degree as he's likely to 4bet those some, and maybe he folds K9s some, but the 3bet is kinda small so I expect him to flat fairly wide.

There's ~ 2/3 PSB left, so we need a bit less than 30% equity to make shoving 0 EV, which we'll have against a more pessimistic range than I put in here.

But yeah, it's certainly not a fistpump shove or anything.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

29 games 0.005 secs 5,800 games/sec

Board: Kc Ks 7s Jh Qd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.172% 55.17% 00.00% 16 0.00 { Tc9h }
Hand 1: 44.828% 44.83% 00.00% 13 0.00 { QQ-TT, AKs, AsQs, AsJs, K9s+, AKo, KQo }

Cool, thanks for the responses, guys.

The results:

Hand 1, checked the river, villain checks back and show 88. I open up my note box...

Hand 2: I cbet, felt weird about it after. My rational at the time was his range was like AQ, AJ, JJ-99 or so, and since the majority here is overs, and he'll probably fold them, it's a decent cBet. But in hindsight i think c/f is correct. His PP call range can be wider, and he can call w overs.

Well, I think I'd put his range at something more like this probably:

Board: Kc Ks 7s Jh Qd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 58.696% 56.52% 02.17% 13 0.50 { JJ, 77, AQs, K9s+, Ts9s, AdQc, AdQh, AdQs, KQo }
Hand 1: 41.304% 39.13% 02.17% 9 0.50 { Tc9h }

and that's getting called by 6/12 combos of AQ, which might even be a bit optimistic... and AJ/TT are never calling unless he's really fishy. so I mean yeah a shove is likely +EV, so I guess it just depends on how well we can play against him after we check. personally I wouldn't expect to get bluffed very often once we check, and if his bluff % is what I think it is checking is better... but I don't know for sure.

also, what about betting $15 or something? I might like that more than c/fing. I might toss around really exploitable betsizing like that too errantly against unknowns though.

Hand 1: How exactly did you pick up good equity against his calling range on the turn? Your equity is at best 15-20% at the turn and you probably don't have much fold equity either. What are you expecting him to fold that's better and call with worse with a HPB?

When you pick up a draw on the turn, it usually makes betting a better option as the bluff now has to work less often to be profitable and the river pot is larger when you do hit your hand. And there are plenty of hands that might call the flop and fold the turn. I would make the turn bet larger though if I am repping kings.

When you pick up a draw on the turn, it usually makes betting a better option as the bluff now has to work less often to be profitable and the river pot is larger when you do hit your hand. And there are plenty of hands that might call the flop and fold the turn.

I would make the preflop 3-bet larger (you don't want a call) and the turn barrel larger.

usually makes it better, yes...but there I don't think so with paired board and FD