Villain is 21/16/2 OVER 345 hands; Steal from SB = 10 of 20; C-Bet Flop = 12 of 15; C-Bet Turn = 1 of 3


Bluff the river?

Comments on any other part of the hand also welcome.



[rake removed]

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter By DeucesCracked Poker Videos

UTG: $163.20
CO: $100.00
BTN: $201.45
SB: $162.05
Hero (BB): $108.10

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BB with J Q
3 folds, SB raises to $3, Hero calls $2

Flop: ($5.70) 4 T 8 (2 players)
SB bets $4, Hero calls $4

Turn: ($13.30) 7 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $9.75, SB calls $9.75

River: ($31.80) A (2 players)
SB checks, Hero ???

otoh this ace changes nothing to your range, i don't see why you would call flop with an ace and bet the turn unless you specifically had the NFD in which case I think you raise a decent amount of the time OTF... He probably has 99/8x and isn't folding because a gazillion draws whiffed and the Ace looks like the perfect card to bluff even though it isn't

fwiw i like a flop raise, we are ip and can barrel any spade/9/J/Q/K/A with decent fold equity + pot equity, or just take one off with a GS + 2 overs if some bad card peels like a 2/3/5/6/7. Feels pretty gross when he 2barrels the turn here and you have to fold with good equity

If you're liking a flop raise raise while thinking of barreling though then how often are you expecting him to actually flat a flop raise OOP on this board as opposed to be 3betting or folding.

I think you played it fine raising the flop would give villain a chance to make us fold our sweet bdfd and gutshot plus overs. River looks like a good spot for a valuebet but I still would fire here sometimes.

I raise the flop and go from there without a specific read that he's always 3-bet or fold OOP when facing a flop raise. If he is then just adjust in the future. I would not bluff this particular river, I can't imagine he's checking to check/fold as his air probably gives it one last shot on that river a large % of the time

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if you can vbet a Ten/JJ/show up with an ace here then betting river is fine

I doubt many people in 100nl are good enough to bluffcatch this river with villain's likely range. So Def bluff it

Overbet 50-60$

Flop and turn are good imo. Dislike raising flop for the reasons apo stated - it would suck to raise here and get blown off our equity.

For me this would really depend on gameflow/image/how much of a station I think he is. In a vacuum I don't mind making it $24 and hoping to get him off a T9/99 type hand. If he does bluffcatch wider than we expected, at least we get a useful note out of it.

looks like a good bluff to me.

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I Dont think our hand is good enough to call but think it's too good to fold. And I don't think we have much if any equity, it's not even so good a board to cbet.

Well your value bet range here probably includes: J9 T8s T7s 87s AT A4s KT QT, that's around 57 combos, which is kind of a lot, so i think you can bet twice with QJ, and your missed flush draws u didn't raise flop with.

I c/, why would you be firing your JT,T9,JJ and all thin value hands. Plus all the draws bricked.