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100NL Bottom set on coordinated board 100NL Bottom set on coordinated board

01-20-2010 , 08:02 PM
Villain is 21/14 over 25 hands. Seems pretty passive, but I haven't seen enough to make any reliable reads.

Flop raise is too small, I know. I was hoping to get him to come over the top putting me on pair+gutshot type hands and I didn't think he had much of a calling range.

Do any hands do this that I beat other than 89? What's villains range when he flats the flop other than overpairs and sets? Does villain ever have a 6?

Poker Stars $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG: $100.00
Hero (CO): $100.00
BTN: $28.00
SB: $114.20
BB: $113.60

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is CO with 5 5
UTG raises to $3, Hero calls $3, 3 folds

Flop: ($7.50) 7 9 5 (2 players)
UTG bets $5, Hero raises to $15, UTG calls $10

Turn: ($37.50) 8 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $25, UTG raises to $82 all in, Hero...
01-21-2010 , 11:35 AM
I would like to hear opinions on this too.

We are often crushed by straights and sets and an over pair would be fairly unusual here. $57 to win $145 leaves us needing 28.3% equity. Seems tough - we have about 20% vs a straight, are crushed by higher set, crush an occasionally overpair (TT here?), two pair seems unlikely. Unsure.
01-21-2010 , 12:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Harlequin99
I would like to hear opinions on this too.

We are often crushed by straights and sets and an over pair would be fairly unusual here. $57 to win $145 leaves us needing 28.3% equity. Seems tough - we have about 20% vs a straight, are crushed by higher set, crush an occasionally overpair (TT here?), two pair seems unlikely. Unsure.
I would fold against a passive villain. His almost never bluffing here.
01-21-2010 , 12:14 PM
Is check back the turn an option against a guy like this. His range for calling the flop raise is mostly sets and overpairs (he raise from UTG so not much 98s/T9s) and I would have thought he folds overpairs a lot on this turn
01-21-2010 , 12:20 PM
i call. 66 is the only hand he has for the straight. set over set is obv unlikely, i dont think we fold due to that, he could defo be overplaying an overpair. hmmm maybe not if hes passive he would prob be scared of the board. i dunno but i still call
01-21-2010 , 12:21 PM
He dosent have a straight he can only have a higher set because his opening range under the gun isnt SC.
I would call here because i think villain is scared and dosent know what to do with his over pair. And maybe thinks u are bluffing.
01-21-2010 , 03:00 PM
JT makes a straight also.
01-21-2010 , 03:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by IjustCan
He dosent have a straight he can only have a higher set because his opening range under the gun isnt SC.
I would call here because i think villain is scared and dosent know what to do with his over pair. And maybe thinks u are bluffing.
Why would an overpair call the flop raise and get it in after the draws ht?
01-21-2010 , 03:12 PM
I probably check back the turn...you have very close to bottom of your range when you bet the turn after raising the flop. Getting c/r really sucks, and you do have a decent amount of outs to improve.

I also don't think you can rule out 76s, 56s depending on the table as it is 5 handed.

As played, I think he needs to be bluffing here a lot more often, than is realistic. He basically would have to be turning 98, or an over pair into a bluff (or be really bad/tilting).
01-21-2010 , 03:21 PM
I has set. I call.

Seriously though there aren't many 6s in his range. There's a chance he took a weird like with a set, but it's just as likely he's spazzing with an overpair or a turned 2 pair.
01-21-2010 , 03:35 PM
fold
01-21-2010 , 03:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by scoop05333
i call. 66 is the only hand he has for the straight. set over set is obv unlikely, i dont think we fold due to that, he could defo be overplaying an overpair. hmmm maybe not if hes passive he would prob be scared of the board. i dunno but i still call
56, 67, 66, 89, and possibly higher sets.
01-21-2010 , 03:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by poloplaya1414
I has set. I call.

Seriously though there aren't many 6s in his range. There's a chance he took a weird like with a set, but it's just as likely he's spazzing with an overpair or a turned 2 pair.
I like how many people are discounting 6x hands, but then basing the rest of the argument on him randomly spazzing. Is it really that much more likely he is randomly spazzing than he opened 76s,65s at a 5 high handed table with a shorty on the button (who if is a pro ss, fold their btn almost always)?

Also, why if he can be randomly spazzing AA, he can't randomly c/r shove 99,88 too.
01-21-2010 , 03:52 PM
Check back turn and call river? Fold as played. I doubt villain is spazzing with worse.
01-21-2010 , 04:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DevinLake
I like how many people are discounting 6x hands, but then basing the rest of the argument on him randomly spazzing. Is it really that much more likely he is randomly spazzing than he opened 76s,65s at a 5 high handed table with a shorty on the button (who if is a pro ss, fold their btn almost always)?

Also, why if he can be randomly spazzing AA, he can't randomly c/r shove 99,88 too.
Calling the flop raise with 76, 65, or 66 would be a spazzy move. So if he's gonna do it with those hands, why wouldn't he play TT or 89 like that? And he can be randomly c/raising 99 or 88, but there are just as many combos of overpairs and 2 pairs than there are of sets and straights. We only need 28% equity to call, and we still have about 20% equity against straights, so I think there's enough spaz in his range to make a call profitable.

Last edited by poloplaya1414; 01-21-2010 at 04:30 PM.
01-21-2010 , 04:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by poloplaya1414
Calling the flop raise with 76, 66, or 66 would be a spazzy move. So if he's gonna do it with those hands, why wouldn't he play TT or 89 like that?
whatever, you argument makes no sense to me...I just know I get mad at myself when I put someone on a hand I can beat and call and lose way more than 70% of the time.

Just because someone can conceivably be bluffing/spazzing, doesn't make it a call. He needs to be doing it like >30% or whatever the pot odds are in this case.
01-21-2010 , 08:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DevinLake
whatever, you argument makes no sense to me...I just know I get mad at myself when I put someone on a hand I can beat and call and lose way more than 70% of the time.

Just because someone can conceivably be bluffing/spazzing, doesn't make it a call. He needs to be doing it like >30% or whatever the pot odds are in this case.
Actually it's more like 20% since we have a decent amount of equity vs straights. And in a spot like this where villains line makes little to no sense, bluffs are a pretty large portion of his range.

      
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