Villain 22/21 over 80 hands

Anyone 3barrel this vs relative unknown?

Now I've checked is crai > c/f?

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
SB ($98.30)
BB ($115.40)
UTG ($100)
Hero ($150.40)
CO ($184.95)
BTN ($219.20)

Dealt to Hero T J

fold, Hero raises to $3.50, CO calls $3.50, fold, fold, fold

FLOP ($8.50) 4 Q 9

Hero bets $6.00, CO calls $6.00

TURN ($20.50) 4 Q 9 6

Hero bets $14.50, CO calls $14.50

RIVER ($49.50) 4 Q 9 6 5

Hero checks, CO bets $25, Hero??

I'm c/c with A hi.. I guess you could check min raise.

I wouldn't barrel river because all the draws that you could barrel missed. Only 78 remains. I would definitely bluff a lot of diamonds and hearts though. As played I'm check-folding.

I actually quite like a check/raise here. Once he calls to river he has way more missed draws in his range than he does made hands, and seeing as he'd probably raise his monster hands (2pairs/sets) to protect them earlier in the hand, his river bet looks a lot like either a missed draw or a hand like Qx going for thin value against our pair + draw. Plus it's a line we could easily take with our own monsters as it allows us to get value from his missed draws which otherwise fold.

Against a complete unknown it might be slightly iffy though. Do we know anything about villain's bluff tendencies?

Agreed, stack sizes are a bit of a problem, with 100bb it would be less risky to c/shove as bluff. But I still think c/raising pretty big will get a lot of folds.

call.
J is high enough to call here and if he is not bluffing then - tough life.

I think a fold is best on the river. Your line of bet, bet, check, reps either a missed draw or a marginal value bluffcatcher. In villains eyes he can value bet with TP. With hero checkraising the river after betting the flop and turn looks very bluffy to villain. A hand you are trying to rep would have lead out all 3 streets. IMO

Im quite liking the crai here. His range consists of missed draws, queens and some strong 9's. The triple barrel most likely gets called by his queens due to board texture and it obv folds out his draws. I think a crai can fold out queens enough for it to be a good play, epecially as a good part of his river betting range will be missed draws that will instafold.

crai > cf > bet > c/call imo tho crai is only slightly ahead of cf an cf is by no means a bad play.

just fold...he will not fold to your raise

Enough missed draws in his betting range that he will have to fold, unless you think hes shipping them (very doubtfull)

Reason I think crai is good is because I expect him to check back all his 9s, and a good amount of his queens. (what would you do in his spot with KQ or QJ?) This means his betting range is weighted heavily towards missed draws imo.

either way i think it's a spot in which it's hard to be balanced.

Luckily we don't have to be balanced.

Our two questions are 1) should we bluff cbet the river? and 2) if we check, can we profitably C/R?

Question 1 is much easier to answer I think.

Bluffing is only going to fold out weak pairs and better high card hands (or unpaired hands that we have beat, not that there are very many of them). He will rarely fold Qx (or TT/JJ) and this will be the majority of his range. I think his range going to the river looks like this {QJs, QTs, KQ, AQ, TT, JJ, JTs, KJdd, KJhh, AJdd, ATdd}. So that's 40 combos of hands and of those only 6 are high-card hands against which it is clearly +EV to cbet.

In fact, if we cbet $34 on the river, we would need to add at least 17 more combos of easily bluffable hands to the above range to make it a good bet.

Cbetting the river is burning money.

________

Whether it's +EV to C/R the river is much more complicated of a question.

His range for betting the river once we check to him now will be weaker than his range going to the river given that he's not always going to value bet his weaker 1 pair hands.

The important question is what range we want to fold with a river C/R. If we only want to fold the high card hands, then we can C/R smaller - to say $55-$60 - and therefore risk less on the bluff. If we want to fold his top pair hands, then we need to raise bigger obviously.

I think there simply aren’t enough combos of him bluffing relative to him value betting in order to try and fold only his bluffs. So, I think if we want to C/R the river it needs to be big. The question is how frequently he folds TP to this line. Without reads, I think it’s probably bad.

Ultimately, I’m in the C/F camp.



As an aside, I think C/R here with KK/AA would be really cool.

c/c with A-high would be bad


List a range to justify this. I'd be surprised if you can.

c/rai is awesome

lulz.

if the villains range is missed draws or monsters, why the **** would you ever check raise on the river? if you think there are some Qx in his range, why the **** would you ever checkraise?

well i agree with your reasoning,but we have to recall that oppo is unknwon and we dont know his tendecies

its very unlikely he has a monster given his two calls and the betsizing on the river.

He doesn't need a monster. He can bet/call Qx here %100 of the time and turn profit. This river is getting checked behind so often that we are hardly ever check/raising Qx+ here.

that's not necessarily true. if we play against a good player he'll own us in spots like these once he knows what we do with our air/weak made hands.

You realize that "100nl" in the title refers to the buy in, not the big blind?

+1

Well, he *should* be able to b/c Qx here 100%, but if he can't hand read, he'll just sigh/fold

c/f 5s riv but bluff lots of A,heart,diamond rivs

haha nice post. can't really hate a bluff here, it's pretty much the worst hand we get to the river with.