villain is 45/39/3.7, 3bet 12% over 30 hands

Ongame Network $100.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
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BB: $82.80
UTG: $58.15
Hero (CO): $100.00
BTN: $100.00
SB: $99.00

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is CO with Q K
1 fold, Hero raises to $3.50, 1 fold, SB raises to $12, 1 fold, Hero calls $8.50

Flop: ($25.00) Q 2 A (2 players)
SB bets $16.00, Hero calls $16

Turn: ($57.00) Q (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets x

We have 71$ stack left on turn, what do you think is best bet size?

Half pot turn, shove rest on riv

he likely checks turn with weak aces, bluffs. wouldnt mind checking turn, betting small on river, or jaming over his river lead if he takes a stab. good to practise some balance here as well checking back.

45/39/3.7, 3bet 12%

balance

doesn't compute

but the idea of checking back for balancing against better guys is pretty cool

did you notice i said "practise" as it seems most ssnl payers are looking to become solid enough to move up? also, a 30 hand sample really means nothing so I'm not sure why you're even refering to it Gabbao.

betting turn insta folds out bluffs, and sometimes very weak aces. now if we check, villian can talk himself into either bluffing the river (sometimes rare) or valuebetting worse. at that point if we shove we give villian a decent enough price on a call. this scenerio is much more likely to get paid off than betting the turn... regarding the balance I mentioned, occasionally we will have a weak Ax here that we cant bet for value that will check back looking to get to showdown, and we cant just be checking with weak hands everytime in this spot....also, I dont think villian expects us to have any raw floats after we call flop.

Imo checking back is seldom winning any more money as villian can't expect hero to fold river with ax to a bet on river since he checked turn. So if he has a hand that valuebets river he will probably at least call a bet on the turn if not a second one on the river. With air he will mostly just c/f river since it's such an awful spot for him to bluff. Also by checking back turn you pretty much define your hand as a hand with showdownvalue as you never check back turn when you floated the flop. So i think hero should give himself the opportunity to win villains whole stack by betting turn (probably half pot is fine) and shoving river.

this is possible. however where do you think villian is more likely to call a bet (with a wider range) from us, on the turn, or on the river after we check back turn?

btw i think turn would be a standard bet if villian and hero had any agressive history at all. this is more of a line i use for relative unknowns.

Does anyone else think that shoving turn wins as much from hero/value calls as we win from river bluffs/value betting worse? I think it might be close.

this is a possibility. not sure if id use it as my 'goto play', but certainly reasonable in an agressive game flow.

I think between betting a checking back it's really marginal. You will have a better chance getting in all money if you bet the turn since if you check villain could check back river and now you can't appropriately shove.

Again though, i see either play fine.

villian can't check back river, were IP. also not sure after villian checks turn if we can ever bet turn and jam river. more or less we are trying to get 2 streets of value, and deciding which street is most likely to get paid off... but yeah turn bet, river bet is very close.

Not sure I can think of a hand I'd like to bet this turn with

Exactly.

You're not going to bet an Ax on the turn imo.... Also, floating this flop with anything weaker than a Qx is pretty bad.

...So, if he knows even a little bit about what he's doing (definitely not a given) then you should be checking this turn with everything.
Just because its easier to get the money in if we bet doesnt mean that we should in fact bet.

Good point.

chk imo you will stack Ax on the river anyways

half pot imo

bet something gay like $7 cause if you check this you'll get value on the river, but you'll never STACK him.

I actually think it's the other way around: if he DOESN'T know what he's doing we should be more likely to ck turn. Bad players, like this villain, are more likely to think a turn bet = a Q. A somewhat more thinking player is more likely to see this bet as a float/steal or an A protecting on the basis that he knows we "should be" slowplaying our trips.

+1

If we c and villain c on the river what is our bet sizing?

I'd bet half pot on the turn.

I like a really small bet here, we want to encourage strange things to happen... works especially well against villains who are like yours. Not that your sample size is very conclusive...

Something like 19bb ... and tank shove river (or instashove, just don't take a 'normal' amount of time.)

whats our percieved range for chk turn bet river?

It's not like we induce many bluffs by checking behind on the turn because 99% of the time we have a hand we want to show down then. also shoving over his river bet will likely get Ax to fold (we don't rep any bluffs, noone ever takes this line as a bluff) whereas I can't see him ever folding Ax to a turn and river bet.