Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
SB ($91.50)
BB ($104)
UTG ($111)
UTG+1 ($104)
CO ($80.15)
Hero ($118)

Dealt to Hero T T

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $3, SB raises to $10, fold, Hero calls $7

FLOP ($21) T A Q

SB bets $10, Hero raises to $31, SB calls $21

TURN ($83) T A Q K

SB bets $50.50 (AI), Hero calls $50.50

RIVER ($184) T A Q K 7

Hero shows T T
(Pre 18%, Flop 73.8%, Turn 25.0%)


SB shows J J
(Pre 82%, Flop 26.2%, Turn 75.0%)

SB wins $181


Opponent was kind of a tight fish, only raising 5% of his hands, his first 3b. I have position, good odds and implied odds so I call.

Pretty cool flop obv, the only thing I'm worried about a bit is AA or QQ, still no need to slowplay and get sucked out by a 4outer or anything like that plus he'll go broke with TP, anyway.
So he thinks a while and then finally calls my raise, turn is meh but he's so tight, I dont see him ever having AJ, KJ or a lower J as tight as he is, if he has a higher set gg but he would have shipped on the flop imo plus he may have lots of AK or maybe AQ (maybe he would rather call with AQ preflop but he 3b jj so I dunno), then again he would have probably shipped the flop with that in hindsight. Also, since he plays JJ like a genius what do I know.
He obviously totally owned me with JJ, now I'm wondering if I'm thinking resultsoriented or if this is all cool and dandy. Pokerstove tells me I have 69% equity on flop and 53% on turn vs a range of JJ+, plus I only have to call 50 into 133 with 25% chance to boat/quad up.

If I had raised more on the flop or just shipped I wouldn't have had the math problem on the turn, obv or maybe I'm committed even with this raisesize so ship would have been better, anyway. His call just blew my mind, I guess.

thanks for the reply

Cooler/ thread

He creams his pants shoves a set on the flop most likely. All 100nl nits do this, and is pretty standard. You are still ahead often on the turn to make this okay even if he has a jack, you still have outs. If the turn was a jack I may fold but it seems he can still have aq and ak here alot/random flush draws.

Call on turn is horrible imo, he obv has str8 or higher set here.

Like said, I dont ever see him having Jx here as tight as he is, JJ calling the flop seems borderline ******ed to me as well so that pretty much only left higher sets that want to slowplay and other Ax and I'm good enough against that range. You are right if he only 3b JJ, QQ, KK, AA it's a fold but I think it's ok to induce that he also 3b all variants of AK and maybe AQ if he 3b JJ, and even if he also had AJ in his range it would probably be a call given potodds.
Obviously all depends on which range you give him.

Don't post results or you get result oriented fish to reply that play 5/10 at foxwoods

Calling with JJ on flop is not only borderline ******ed, it's ******ED.
Which means he can have any strong 2 pair too.

You have odds to improve and he is shoving for example AK (and other 2p) enough of the time for you to continue very easily.

All-in-all, the hand is played fine and a cooler.

PRINCEofSTUD comment might be sarcasm

I wouldn't think he would 3 bet AK, AQ from sb and be out of position if hes as tight as you think, he would flat. He's only gonna 3 bet a pair here and you button raised, so he may be very tight, but this is a time were a nit will 3 bet oop with a hand like 99-AA

Raise more on the flop.

if he has JJ here, he also has any 2 pair, so /thread

/cooler