Don't know much about villain, over 124 hands he plays 16/13 0% 3bet 2.0 AF and 100% cbet. All over this micro sample.

At the flop i decide to c/r him because it's likely i have the best hand since i block many combo's. Besides that i can extract some value out of worse aces and draws.
The turn is quite nasty, bet/call or bet/fold if he raises??
As played i want to check/fold the river, too nitty?


Hero ($202)
BB ($149)
UTG ($108)
UTG+1 ($104)
CO ($101)
BTN ($100)

Dealt to Hero J A

fold, fold, CO raises to $2.50, fold, Hero calls $2, fold

FLOP ($6) A J 8

Hero checks, CO bets $4.50, Hero raises to $16.50, CO calls $12

TURN ($39) A J 8 Q

Hero bets $26.50, CO calls $26.50

RIVER ($92) A J 8 Q 5

C/f I think. There are two hands he could have that you beat and I don't think they call a shove/bet if you check anyway

Would it be too nitty to say not to bet turn?

i like your sizing on the flop and turn.
when u bet the turn it is 90% B/fing and 10% B/Calling. clearly for value.
when he calls, this is pretty sick playing any blank on the river OOP.
his range pretty much scare the crap out of our AJ, but as big as the pot- i guess unless he could slow play a hand like TXss or such, you must shove river.
if you put him on FD that could hit the turn 40% of the time or more- c/c turn c/f river.

easy check fold river. i like the turn bet a lot.

I think turn is a +EV bet, but im not rly sure if u might call it a bluff or a value bet since we probably get called by fewer worse hands than better and mainly are just betting him off worse Ax which i think would just check it down if we checked...

since we are c/fing on a river blank, why is the turn a good bet?

I think on the turn we can extract some value out of worse hands that will check the river behind. I don't think he is the type that will turn made hands into a bluff on the river. That is basically the reason why i folded the river on his shove.

easy c/fold imo.
with these stats his range is very broadway heavy + virtually every hand beat us: flush, any AQ + T9 + JJ + 88 . when we bet turn here we hope we get him off AA, AsKx but i doubt these hand fold here.

This is a typical merge scenario and it's guaranteed that shoving river will show a immediate profit.

If he is the type to get stubborn with ATo and still have it on the river then he will fold those, instead of shoving when we check it to him.

If he is the type to only call with better hands on the turn, he still rarely has the flush because almost all combos of those are combo draws on the flop and are jamming flop, and of those that are not, they've a baby flush and are overwhelmingly jamming turn. Betting turn and river is then a bluff versus his better bluffcatchers i.e his dozens of combos of AQ and 9To and a few slow sets which beat us.

Think cf is very weak.

Lol @ thinking villain will shove AT imo.

Villain can also have any K-xs, which is not a combo draw, as well as 76s/56s hands.

He's 16/13 and he's CO

Interesting note: If the Ace or even the Jack were the offsuit flop card I would be c/f turn