Game is .50/$1 100 NL-ZOOM 6 max

UTG with ($130) limps $1
Hero with 44 UTG+1 ($275) raises to $4
folds around where villain completes for $3

Flop ($9): AAA
Villain checks
Hero bets $4
Villain calls $4

Turn ($17): 3
Villain checks
Hero bets $9
Villain calls $9

River ($35): 10
Villain checks with $117
Hero bets $75

Obviously this is here because villain called. However villain should not be able to call often. If he is calling, what is he calling with (besides quads). I don't want to influence thought processes too much, but obvious pot is not polarizing/punishing enough to force off 88s. While river can fill his aces with 10s with pocket 10s, we're repping pretty much JJ+. Winners at 100 NL+ would be great.



^ HOW THE F**K DID THAT HAPPEN?

why would you ever bet this hand OTR?

Unnecessary

2/10

Hello, posted this hand into the mid-stakes as well just fyi if you lurk those as well.

As we have no history, villain must assume we're taking a TAG 3-bet approach of premium hands and not a loose-spewy line like 7-8 suited. Thus our range consists of A-X and PP, also we're trying to rep like QQ KK here. Perhaps I'm biased, but if you had a hand like 55s as Villain and you faced this $75 bet on a $35 pot, I'd wager a lot that it's a losing call at 100 NL zoom against hero's perceived range in the long run. I cannot fathom it being proper for UTG mid PP to ever call this over bet because what is he really beating. We have to be turning a lot of lower PP into bluffs to make this profitable. Since this is ZOOM, you should be playing close to GTO and he does not know we're deviating.

My thoughts. Or you could make life simple and just shut down the river and hope hands hold. Absolutely a fine play, but I honestly believe the weaker play considering villains actions.

You're never taking that line with an ace, and everyone knows that, so what makes it to the river that you expect to fold?

Are you bluffing? Are you value betting?

Why can't you check and win sometimes? River is looney tunes.

When the board has almost no cards that change ranges significantly I wouldn't expect many people to fold after calling the flop.

Edit: Oh and when ranges are so close together by the turn and river I doubt that sizing is ever good.

It's not like u 3bet pre, you're isoing a limp so your range is nowhere near as strong as your perception. Your river bet just looks bluffy and out of control.

I think the global consensus is that the line is too risky / torching money on fire without any solid analysis.

FIRST - As for the idea that we cannot take this line with an Ace, that is ridiculous. I would take that exact line with an ace. Small value flop, turn and overbet 2x river hoping for a hero call. If villain does make aces full of 10s, he will feel forced to call the overbet. This is probably the most profitable line as well.

SECOND - Our range is uncapped? (not sure if using the term correctly) - we can hold anything from 22 to KK as we UTG+1 raised. Our hand range is supposed to be stronger than UTG limp/call range.

LASTLY - checking behind is going to lose majority of the time. We don't have enough show down value against a UTG limp that calls down two streets. Usually consists of pocket pair higher than our 4s. Thus we should use our perceived range against his supposedly weaker range. It just so happened in this particular situation villain slow played KK for whatever reason.

Will leave this thread on this note. This is my analysis and if you think otherwise, well there's not much to be said. But I hope you see the merits in my line of thinking at the very least - whether you agree or not.

*** side note ***

taking this overall approach at a live/regular cash game will create dynamics where you actually can get massively paid off on nutter butter pot bets if you get caught throwing in these river bets. obviously frequencies of bluffs vs nuts should be far less.

No body is arguing you didn't think about your play well enough. They're arguing whether the conclusions you draw are valid or relevant to the bet and the sizing.

I don't remember anyone saying that but if they did I certainly agree that you can take this line with Ax.

Uncapped means that your range contains all strong value hands and I agree with this as well. To some extent I would expect villain to be uncapped with Ax as well, but will be missing big pairs for the best full houses a lot of the time.

You can't bluff everytime you don't have showdown value especially on dry boards like this one. Not to mention people limping utg are probably going to be bad/fishy so you really don't have to bluff here. I would say your 44's probably have some showdown value but yea not a lot. Think they have even less bluff value though bc you'll get called a lot here.

Dude this is an anonymous poker forum where people give out FREE advice. Take some criticism a little bit better and you'll learn a lot. It's usually not personal until someone makes it so.



Don't think you have to cost yourself so many bb in live cash games to get bad calls. Most live players aren't good.

riv is w/e, turn is really bad

P1: when a fish limp/calls UTG, they probably have a pocket pair.
P2: Its probably better than your pair
P3: Fish don't fold
C1: Betting t/r is bad.

P4: there's a chance you have showdown equity if you didn't bet turn / river
C2: Betting t/r is bad.

P5: Your never getting value from worse once u get called on the flop
C3: betting t/r is bad.

MC: Betting t/r is bad.

I could be wrong, but is this a classic case of folding out worse and only getting call by better?

That being said he did limp, so his range is quite weak. I guess you dont really have any bluffs here but in my experience an open limp is very fishy, and if u dont have any reads and playing someone you dont have any experience against, i dont think taking such a thin line is a great idea IMO. Also, he could have limped in with a small suited ace, so even though u have more aces in his range he could have an ace here. And generally speaking weaker players tend to station alot. Also given he called twice even though he limped you have to give him a range of like atleast 66+, so getting someone to fold a decent fullhouse is quite ambitious.

Overall i think its too thin against someone you dont have any experience or strong reads against.

The first is right. But in Zoom, you never need to balance your range like this. I would solely valuebetting Ax here to get massive value from PP in this way. I would barely do bluff in this way as it is costly when I make a mistake.

yeah i mean just because you raise UTG doesn't mean you can only have JJ+, even if you lead flop and turn

he can peel with a ton of hands on the flop

he can call with any pair on the turn

and he can call with any pair on the river just because that sizing and that line looks SO bluffy and spewy

i like checking back the turn for pot control and maybe picking off a bluff on the river from the villain

Pre-flop is marginal/fine.

On the flop I'd rather go bigger as I don't think $4 achieves protection (broadways likely call anyway, drawing to a boat).

Turn bet makes little sense unless the flop bet was specifically to induce light peels which you're now aiming to fold out. Otherwise just check back and hope for a check on the river, or maybe bluffcatch a bet.

Then on the river as played just give up. Overbet is super spew as villain will have quads pretty often.