I have quite a bit of history with villain, we played a couple of HU matches and sometimes speak on AIM.

There's no crazy dynamic., although my image should be somewhat laggy and I do vb light. I think he usually plays ~6 tables and seems solid.


BTN: $502.90 (251.5 bb)
Hero (SB): $626.40 (313.2 bb)
BB: $617.95 (309 bb)
CO: $504.50 (252.3 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A T
CO folds, BTN raises to $6, Hero calls $5, BB calls $4

Flop: ($19.60) T 5 8 (3 players)
Hero bets $16, BB calls $16, BTN folds

Turn: ($51.60) K (2 players)
Hero bets $38, BB calls $38

River: ($127.60) 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $90, BB raises to $557.55


There are plently of missed draws, but villain can obv have a flush too. My Ace blocks a few flush combos and importantly the nut flush. I believe villain would be more inclined to raise smaller with <Q flush, especially with somethimg like 6h7h.

More simply:
facing over-raise
nut flush blocker
many missed draws
no crazy dynamic
both our ranges are wide and uncapped
not been in this spot vs villain

Here's my analysis:
1. I doubt villain would shove less than a flush.
2. You have a lot of flushes when you bet river in this spot.
3. You definitely have much more non-flush hands if you vbet this thin, villain might know this.
4. You have a very good bluffcatching hand.
5. People do not bluff hardly as much as they should in these kind of spots.

Considering all these, especially five, I would snapfold :-) If villain had a history of shoving over 3barrels with missed draws then you have to call this, but I'm guessing 95% of regs at 200nl just never make that move so this makes it a fold imo.

i don't think you should level yourself here.
you donked so it will be very hard for you to have a big flush; but
imo i don't think most players would expect you to fold a set

if you don't donk J9 67 then i think its a little thin to go for 3 streets here

i mean, i kind of get it, people aren't slowplaying to now raise T8 or something

the sizing is pretty meh by him given how many flushes he should have and your probable inability to call, but it's really up to you (since you know him) if he could bluff here

If you speak with him on AIM I think that could significantly raise the chance he has air here, depending on certain things. I couldn't blame you for calling, particularly since he reps {QhJh}.

Also having the Ah is incredibly key here but I think you already knew that.