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zoom 25 tough river spot zoom 25 tough river spot

08-17-2014 , 10:37 PM
PokerStars - $0.25 PL Hi FAST (6 max) - Omaha Hi - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 179.56 BB (VPIP: 60.71, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, Hands: 28)
Hero (SB): 103.12 BB
BB: 102.6 BB (VPIP: 23.17, PFR: 10.98, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 84)
UTG: 114.72 BB (VPIP: 25.57, PFR: 17.33, 3Bet Preflop: 5.26, Hands: 357)
MP: 96.6 BB (VPIP: 15.96, PFR: 9.57, 3Bet Preflop: 8.11, Hands: 95)
CO: 229.72 BB (VPIP: 22.96, PFR: 16.62, 3Bet Preflop: 5.91, Hands: 1,008)

Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 6 K J 9

UTG raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 2.6 BB, fold

Flop: (7 BB, 2 players) K J 3
Hero bets 5 BB, UTG raises to 19.6 BB, Hero calls 14.6 BB

Turn: (46.2 BB, 2 players) 8
Hero checks, UTG bets 35.6 BB, Hero calls 35.6 BB

River: (117.4 BB, 2 players) 3
Hero checks, UTG bets 56.52 BB and is all-in, fold,

been running into a lot of top 2 vs bottom set or top 2 vs middle set , thus decided to fold yet , any thought on how this could be played better?
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08-18-2014 , 03:51 AM
I'd prefer ch/call flop. Fold river, wp
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08-18-2014 , 06:49 AM
Tricky spot. The flop lead does bloat the pot. I think c/c or c/r is better
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08-18-2014 , 06:50 AM
Although your fold seems OK since the bluff rate at these stakes is very low, there is still a decent chance villain had AQTx, QTxx which ould have played like this.

So I think you should decide on turn ... fold turn, or call T&R (if all draws miss).
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08-18-2014 , 07:10 AM
C/c is best I think vs an utg raise. Allows him to barrel AAXx on blank turns and bluffs
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08-18-2014 , 08:54 AM
Villain is never raising flop with naked QT and naked QT is a minor par of most UTG-ranges from 25/17-guys
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08-18-2014 , 03:42 PM
anyone think this is a fold preflop, or is that too nitty?
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08-18-2014 , 04:32 PM
It's somewhat flippy but as a rule I always presume in the long run my top two pair is 'good'

Here are some interesting counts, understanding all these counts is important to developing a catalogue of referable ratios, which you can function against villain tendency and also against your pot odds (these are including your known blockers in flop and hand).

kk:50% 903 (0.33%) 6832 (2.52%)
jj:50% 761 (0.28%) 5718 (2.11%)
33 2625 (0.97%) 6961 (2.57%)
AQT:50% 2376 (0.88%) 2824 (1.04%)
KJ:50% 2456 (0.91%) 12428 (4.59%)
AKQ3:50% 96 (0.04%) 256 (0.09%)

The incedence of (an extra) KJ is actually slightly higher than top set + middle set, but we are flipping here aside from freeroll gradient. Also flipping(or better, so + for us) against the AQT.

The spot is in a way a very trivial flip at 100bb, but you profit from everything wider than set, topp 2 and the broadway wrap. Villain tendenceis will swing it quite alot, for instance against a tight opponent the occurence of 33 maybe 1/3 in weight vs an i.e more solid TAG BB 3b call range

Preflop is standard call and then checking all flops if heads up

Last edited by Mt.FishNoob; 08-18-2014 at 04:49 PM.
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08-18-2014 , 04:41 PM
You do get in periods when they always seem to have 33 KK or JJ and it does cause doubt. I remember really having trouble in wandering if my game is efficient or not with the standard shove on flop here. Actually not even sure about myself now. Especially reaidng that some responses say WP to a fold. I am getting my stack in either at the flop or at the turn. You have no justification in calling turn. Fold or shove, pivoting on your flush draw alone is not enough unless you expect him to give you the implieds often enough, and if he does not bluff shove his river misses then I'd be surprised.

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
8,217,220 trials (Exhaustive)
board: KJ3
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
Kd6dJh9h61.85% 5,061,57140,816
QT:60%38.15% 3,114,83340,816

It is very easy to perceive favourable fold equity in you r QT and this easily swings the 'flip' towards your favour.

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
6,236,100 trials (Exhaustive)
board: KJ3
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
Kd6dJh9h37.88% 1,511,4401,701,734
(KK,JJ,33,AQT*,KJ):65%62.12% 3,022,9261,701,734

This does not look like a flip, and it's worse when you consider that 33 weight is represented lighter than it is in this simulation. Change the AQT to QT though
ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
board: KJ3
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
Kd6dJh9h51.36% 267,15381,991
(KK,JJ,33,QT,KJ):65%48.64% 250,85681,991

or a small change like this adds some

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
board: KJ3
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
Kd6dJh9h40.40% 169,908145,036
(KK,JJ,33,AQT,KJ,KQT):65%59.60% 285,056145,036

These are not in depth enough and you will never get it accurate buy just by knowing the weighted counts of certain things tells me this spot is a flip, on a KQ2 board your KQ is alot stronger, than say your KJ on KJ7 for a lot of reasons.

Last edited by Mt.FishNoob; 08-18-2014 at 04:47 PM.
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08-18-2014 , 05:05 PM
I guess I´m a huge nit, but I´d probably fold OTT against this kind of villain.

Not saying I always do it, but what can he really have there to raise UTG, raise OTF and keep firing? I would guess we´re crushed a lot, flipping against a draw a bit and splitting very little.
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08-18-2014 , 08:20 PM
Are you asking this question to me? Because I put some ranges in.

Turn is an insta shove, there is even a flush draw just incase you are coolered. The thing I said ealier about perceived fold equity, it's plo25 and villain is against bet/call ranges. He can be raising QT combos alot, 33 is not too likely UTG, and his KJ is more often than his KK JJ and maybe even with the 33 aswell and their is flush draw against that.

You should have your read on the flop. Turn is insta shove as played. 'This kind of villain' appears to be experienced enough and his turn sizing suggests he is thinking player. He has not pot the turn aswell to make more money on river. Set should be potting as hero range draw wise is kind of strong. Maybe he has set with draw but that is even lighter.
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08-18-2014 , 10:46 PM
I gii on turn as well.
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