this is possibly tl;dr, and also maybe completely useless, or possibly just an HEM filter artifact.....

I'm on a big downswing and I'm trying to fix my game. I know I'm too damn nitty (20/14), but trying to play wider always results in spew. I've been messing around with the HEM filter to try to isolate general spots where I suck, so I can fix them. For no particular reason, I started filtering by pot size.

These are all my PLO100 hands for the last few months (200k or so total) where VPIP=true and final pot size < 10bb:



don't worry about sample size - smoothness says it's fine.
obviously these hands are mostly me winning w a cbet.
looks good.


Same filter except for pot size between 10 and 40 bb:



I'm just getting owned here. Does this mean I'm giving up too much on the turn, not cbetting enough turns, or cbetting turns too much and c/f'ing rivers?
I'm tired and I can't figure it out.


Same filter for pot size >40bb:



big pots are back in the + column, which is good I guess.


If anyone has some insight I'd love to hear it, or feel free to tell my I'm losing my marbles or doing something wrong. Very curious whether these results generalize to ssplo regs, ssplo nits, or just me.

first impression:

looks like u give up to much, if u got called otf/ott!
Also i assume u bluff to less.

Yeah, you give up too much/barrel too little.

Under 10bb: You cbet and take it down
From 10 to 40 bb: you gave up because you didn't connect with the flop
Over 40: You've kept barreling because you had something

So don't be a nit and empty the clip sometimes with air.

Actually I would succest you to filter area from 10bb to 40 bb a bit more spesific and check it. Like 10-20, 20-30 and 30-40. It gives you more info. I bet that most of those losing pots are about 20bb or little under (raise - call, cber-call, c/c and b/f if you're ip).

Dude dont believe the guys saying you cant bluff at micro/small stakes. Think those guys dont know the new games and play a little higher.

actually proud of my red line at micros/small.
@yeye sorry tommy there is no pride in poker

2/3 barreling is really good at plo25-plo100 if you hand/villainread very well. The games have changed significantly and there are a lot of solid guys at those stakes.

Some are on scared money and even fold top2 pair on scary boards.

Overall you are just to passive on turn, barrel harder. Adjust your game, try donk-lead-bluffing on good flop textures and 2nd barrel safe turn for your range, try experimenting with that.

And good luck, hope i dont see you at my tables ;D

I'm a big loser in 20-30 bb
worse in 20-30 bb
actually a marginal winner 30-40bb

I guess I'll dig into those the 10-30bb hands and see if I can figure anything out.

^ also dont make runbads over a small sample affect your overall play.

So I think your biggest leak is pretty much what I and F3rz said. You give up too much after the flop. What is your cap between flop cbet and turn cbet? I think you'll find it from there.

Slimyf, stop creating a monster, dont want to end up like frankenstein

I'm not sure did I fully understood you, but I don't mind helping people out. There are counter strategies for everything, so most of us are safe.

true my biggest flaw is helpimg people, i should stop its -EV.

since im going for plo100 fulltime i hope we did not create frakensteins monster

@offtopic: lol at galphond trying to yoing plo10000 tables with the greek,

you meant 'gap', right?
yeah, my turn cbet is only 38 vs 60 otf.

must barrel more, but I think also I'm not positional enough pre, which results in a lot of multiway pots oop (where I tend to have to give up more often on the flop or turn).

If you already are a big winner at these games, maybe you shoud accept to loose some middle size pot and taking alot of smal and beeing in the best shape in the huge ones. I like this strategy that consist to taking a stab, sometime two(40% may be enough) and then giving up when facing too much opposition.
You may have a leak but fixing it could create some other ones like lowering your winrate in the fullstack pots.

Yeah, gap. Sry about my english. I'm too lazy to check it out every time.

Seems like you're a big winner in these games.

Looks like you're giving up some medium sized pots, so you can win the big pots. Seems like a solid strategy.

Run the same filter but add "Saw Turn" and "Not(Cbet Turn)".
Same for River. This will give you some insight on your Turn and River thoughts.

Unfortunately I use PT3 so the naming conventions may differ slightly but its the same principle. Also you need to determine if this same filter shows similar findings during a time when you wasn't on a downswang.

Ditto. But for some clarity (if you have the time or an inquisitive nature) I would run the same 10-40 cbet filter when we;

• WTSD (obv we know what the $ is here but review some hands played)
• 3Bet/Face 4bet
• CBET Turn
• PFR IP
• PFR OOP
• 3Bet IP
• 3Bet OOP
  

Dip diving like this into the MI should help you unravel this ball of string !! if you have a printer, then print the results, stats and graphs, positions, etc.. and make notes on a pad as you go along. It'll help you come to a conclusion.

The ego is a wonderful thing, as the others have said, you are giving up too much on the turn, probably missing good barrel spots as bluffs and value. If i was a reg, I would be floating you constantly maybe even OOP on paired boards.

Hand reading is the biggest thing that will allow you win a lot more of these medium sized pots which are what separates an nut peddling/decent reg into a crushing solid player.

Giving back to the community improves your game a ton and most of the advice given in this forum is misleading a lot so be aware of that.

I looked at your stats in HEM, have ~1K hands on you which although not a great sample, is enough to see where the leaks in your overall PLO strategy are. Not going to give out specifics but you play like a cute little mouse and while although you are very cute and furry, are not very scary when encountering lions, tigers, bears, or even just a newborn kitten.



In general a lot of your postflop stats are what you would see from "fish" players despite the fact that you are playing 20 vpip rather than 50 and so your range interacts with a random * * * flop a lot differently.

somebody post a winning 10-30bb graph and convince me.
please.

wonder what the heck happened there after ~90k hands

Guess my ipenis needs 1 cm also. Thou can't compete with Mad "Agre$$ion" Twatter

thx guys

i guess mine just shrunk a little then. looks to me like about 4x more per hand

Oh, sry. Missread your graph. Nom. And as a apologize I can assure you that you win in real world.