What's my edge? - Small Stakes Pot Limit Omaha

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What's my edge?

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08-20-2019 , 10:50 PM

Double Down

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2003 Posts: 3,434

I'm newer to PLO and don't know the #s too much.

Guy in my local game likes to gamble it up, any time I want to he'll go $500 heads up all in preflop where he gets 4 cards and I get 5. Obviously a great opportunity EV wise but high variance so I'm trying to figure out what the EV is.

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08-21-2019 , 12:57 AM

txdome

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 18,323

Don't know, but obviously take him up on it every time. Borrow money if you need to.

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08-21-2019 , 01:06 AM

wolfbook

grinder

Join Date: Dec 2016 Posts: 466

OP, you said it is high variance. I doubt it is high variance. The edge is going to be so huge that this is printing money. And like TX said, borrow money if need be to get the ball roling. His offer to play won't last long when he starts to see you constantly crush him. Hopefully he won't quit until you are up a cheap motorcycle. If he is stubborn, loaded and/or a degenerate you might get up a car before he quits.

You are almost a 60% favorite.

Last edited by wolfbook; 08-21-2019 at 01:34 AM.

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08-21-2019 , 01:07 AM

Double Down

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2003 Posts: 3,434

He also offered to go 4 cards each but I get to start with two aces. Is there anything I'm missing or is that also a pretty sweet offer?

(Just in case anyone was wondering, there's 0 chance it's some kind of scam)

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08-21-2019 , 01:18 AM

Double Down

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2003 Posts: 3,434

Quote:

Originally Posted by wolfbook

OP, you said it is high variance. I doubt it is high variance. The edge is going to be so huge that this is printing money. And like TX said, borrow money if need be to get the ball roling. His offer to play won't last long when he starts to see you constantly crush him. If things go well he won't quit until you are up a cheap motorcycle. If he is stubborn, loaded and/or a degenerate you might get up a car before he quits.

Maybe. I guess I'm trying to figure out what my ror is during the session if I have 5k.

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08-21-2019 , 01:39 AM

wolfbook

grinder

Join Date: Dec 2016 Posts: 466

Starting with AA each hand is a 65% favorite in a 4 cards versus 4 cards battle.

The real trick might be to size him up and figure out which prop to do first. And after you have won a lot of money from him on that prop bet and he is about to quit, then offer to switch to the other prop bet and continue to crush him.

Last edited by wolfbook; 08-21-2019 at 01:49 AM.

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08-21-2019 , 04:34 AM

SolarAU

old hand

Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 1,795

I think the more poignant question is what you're going to buy with all that free money. Hookers & blow is a good starting point I would think.

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08-22-2019 , 04:21 AM

OmahaDonk

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 5,767

Quote:

Originally Posted by Double Down

Maybe. I guess I'm trying to figure out what my ror is during the session if I have 5k.

This is my first attempt at this so not sure if I'm right. From what I found:
Risk of Ruin = ((1 - (W - L)) / (1 + (W - L)))^U

Where:

W = the probability of a desirable outcome, or a win
L = the probability of an undesirable outcome, or a loss
U = the maximum number of risks that can be taken before the individual reaches their threshold for ruin

W = .6553
L = .3447
U = 10 for your 5K roll

ROR = (0.6894 / 1.3106) ^ 10 = 0.00162185175 or 1 in 617

This is for your AAxx vs random hand. Not sure what the odds are for 5 cards vs 4.

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08-23-2019 , 07:43 AM

thegr8str8

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 551

5 cards vs 4 is a massive ****ing edge. Would take it over AAxx vs random 4c hand.

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08-23-2019 , 03:37 PM

#10

smoothcriminal99

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 1,595

uhh do this until he stops???? why even play poker this is way more profitable and less variance. ya id be suprised if RoR is over 1% for 10 buyins of this

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08-25-2019 , 12:52 AM

#11

SeaKing

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 5,429

Quote:

Originally Posted by thegr8str8

5 cards vs 4 is a massive ****ing edge. Would take it over AAxx vs random 4c hand.

You would be making a mistake.

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08-25-2019 , 07:39 AM

#12

Double Down

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2003 Posts: 3,434

Quote:

Originally Posted by thegr8str8

5 cards vs 4 is a massive ****ing edge. Would take it over AAxx vs random 4c hand.

I acknowledge that this might not be right, but a hand with 5 cards has 10 distinct 2 card hands while 4 cards has 6 distinct 2 card hands. 10:6 = 5:3. So 5 starting cards should win 5 out of 8 times = 62.5%.

Is that a terribly wrong way to calculate it?

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08-25-2019 , 10:17 AM

#13

Shocked

centurion

Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 166

Wtf, this is literally the best investment you could make in your life. What are you waiting for?? Take $5K with you and get him to agree to ten flips in a row. The ROI here is insane.

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08-25-2019 , 06:58 PM

#14

wolfbook

grinder

Join Date: Dec 2016 Posts: 466

Quote:

Originally Posted by Double Down

Just working it out in my head, your number doesn't take into account diminishing returns on more cards. I think the 5 card vs 4 card is almost exactly 60% which is what I stated earlier. And the AA 4 card versus random 4 card is 65.5%.

Last edited by wolfbook; 08-25-2019 at 07:03 PM.

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08-25-2019 , 08:07 PM

#15

Double Down

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2003 Posts: 3,434

Quote:

Originally Posted by wolfbook

Good point. Thank you.

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08-28-2019 , 06:38 PM

#16

pokerodox

The Situation

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 4,889

Please report back. And do it now.

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09-02-2019 , 06:10 AM

#17

The Standard Station

grinder

Join Date: Oct 2018 Posts: 645

Quote:

Originally Posted by wolfbook

IF he's a degenerate?? I dont think thats in question here. My advice would be to hurry to the next game he will be at, do this as much as possible because chances are he offers it to other ppl and hopefully doesnt get buried before you get your chance

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09-02-2019 , 06:13 AM

#18

The Standard Station

grinder

Join Date: Oct 2018 Posts: 645

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shocked

Wtf, this is literally the best investment you could make in your life. What are you waiting for?? Take $5K with you and get him to agree to ten flips in a row. The ROI here is insane.

Ya i think the gto way for sure is getting him to agree to a certain number of flips prior to the first one

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