what are your normal swings like? - Small Stakes Pot Limit Omaha

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what are your normal swings like?

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07-16-2019 , 05:30 AM

nightmaretilt

centurion

Join Date: Apr 2018 Posts: 182

i have sessions where i will lose several buy ins fairly quickly. i lose 4 buy ins often, and on my worst days even more, before factoring BI won

the best players I know lose many BI during bad sessions, 5+ seems standard

what do your swings look like when you play? How many BI do you lose before factoring BI won, how many do you win before factoring BI lost??

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07-16-2019 , 08:51 AM

any four cards

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2019 Posts: 515

i think swings within 10BIs plus or minus is fairly normal. it highly depends on the number of tables and session lengths you play too. also playing style has big influence on swings. personally its mostly around the 5BI range, but it dont play too many tables and not too long sessions

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07-16-2019 , 01:58 PM

DumbosTrunk

Verified Coach PLO5

Join Date: Apr 2017 Posts: 8,069

I can't stomach the idea of losing 5 BI so I call it a night after two. I pretty much min-buy so that means $600. I think the strict stop-loss is good for my BR management too, especially as I am pretty new to PLO.

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07-16-2019 , 02:23 PM

MarshMan114

grinder

Join Date: Oct 2018 Posts: 580

Live or online?

My live 1/2 has very bad players with tons and tons of limps/callers preflop and people pay off almost anything. With a max buy in of 200 it’s not out of the ordinary to be in for 2-3 buy ins before starting to turn a profit. You just keep building a pot woth nut hands/draws until it hits. Then you can push people around more.

My 5/5 game plays big though (usually a button straddle and half the table has $1500+) and like DT I can’t stomach more than 2 bullets of $600. But that game plays more reasonable in the sense that not all hands go to show down and I can wait for decent spots.

Marsh

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07-16-2019 , 03:20 PM

Phil Me Up

adept

Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 808

There are several conversations on this topic scattered throughout 2+2. Short answer / gross simplification: expect "normal" swings between 10-15 BI when playing well, and expect hellish downswings that make that # seem trivial when not playing well.

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/3...hread-1109761/

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07-16-2019 , 07:45 PM

Adebisi

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 2,966

I usually play somewhere between 1500-2000 hands a day. 5 buy ins in either direction in a session I don’t even notice. It happens probably 10 days/month minimum. 8 in either direction, I notice. 10 in either direction is rare. I beat a guy for 10 buyins pretty quickly like a year ago. I still remember that session. I might have won 5 buyins yesterday, I’m not really sure. I think I had couple of -5 buyin sessions last week, not really sure.

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08-14-2019 , 10:28 PM

schm2231

centurion

Join Date: Mar 2019 Posts: 101

I am on an enormous downswing, so anywhere between 5-10 on the regular. I am just nitting it up because I can't get a run out to save my life.

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08-14-2019 , 10:45 PM

.isolated

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 21,495

My biggest upswing was very large and I'm not sure you're asking about that. Since playing 5c plo, my biggest downswing in 40k hands has been 8 stacks on two occasions though my sdv is 140bb/100 so I'm swinging 5 either way a ton.

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I am just nitting it up because I can't get a run out to save my life.

Stop tilting.

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08-15-2019 , 12:06 AM

schm2231

centurion

Join Date: Mar 2019 Posts: 101

I mean you are not wrong... it's very frustrating.

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08-15-2019 , 02:19 AM

#10

Travbana

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 1,573

More tables and longer sessions will increase the buyin-swings , you can easily get 10+ buyin swings both ways if you play more then 4 tables and longer sessions. It's very common to battle with weak fish/regs for 400bb pots.

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08-15-2019 , 12:18 PM

#11

wolfbook

grinder

Join Date: Dec 2016 Posts: 466

It is about more than just the swings. I have a lot of winning and break even sessions. The less frequent losing sessions (and the number of BI lost) start to be unimportant in the bigger picture.

Concentrate on every hand. And try to make the right sized bets for each situation because those bets start to add up over a session. Over the course of a year you can shift a lot of losing sessions into break even sessions just by caring about every check, bet size and fold.

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08-17-2019 , 07:03 AM

#12

FellaGaga-52

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2018 Posts: 8,919

used to be radical, not they're insane ... thanks for asking

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08-20-2019 , 12:31 AM

#13

jungmit

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 1,990

Imagine if less idiots played. Would be so much less variance. Let's do our best to make sure idiots quit, then we don't have to worry about such big swings.

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08-20-2019 , 10:09 AM

#14

DumbosTrunk

Verified Coach PLO5

Join Date: Apr 2017 Posts: 8,069

Quote:

Originally Posted by jungmit

Imagine if less idiots played. Would be so much less variance. Let's do our best to make sure idiots quit, then we don't have to worry about such big swings.

Actually the main reason I win is due to idiots. I won 2.5k in one session a couple days ago - my best score - then went on a 1.5k downswing over the next two sessions. All this pretty much min-buying for $200. So yes, it's a swingy game, but no, we don't want the donkeys to quit anytime soon.

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08-20-2019 , 01:30 PM

#15

jungmit

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 1,990

Quote:

Originally Posted by DumbosTrunk

Actually no it's not. You won because ubhutvsine hands that were better then your opponents and the held up. Don't fool yourself. Even if u played good players you would have won

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08-20-2019 , 02:08 PM

#16

jungmit

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 1,990

Supposed to say you won because you hit hands

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08-20-2019 , 05:24 PM

#17

pucmo

adept

Join Date: Mar 2016 Posts: 1,188

20 stacks down is a good session start and might get to one of those losing months.

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08-20-2019 , 10:48 PM

#18

nightmaretilt

centurion

Join Date: Apr 2018 Posts: 182

does anyone know if swings are more or less extreme in HUPLO?

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08-21-2019 , 03:15 AM

#19

PokerPlayingGamble

banned

Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 4,669

I would guess less extreme, because no multiway all ins. Although it depends, if you are battling regs then you should have much bigger downswings than if you are bum hunting fish.

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08-21-2019 , 09:27 AM

#20

jungmit

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 1,990

Quote:

Originally Posted by PokerPlayingGamble

I would guess less extreme, because no multiway all ins. Although it depends, if you are battling regs then you should have much bigger downswings than if you are bum hunting fish.

Why would battling regs give u bigger downswing ?

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08-22-2019 , 05:38 AM

#21

+EVillain

grinder

Join Date: Jun 2018 Posts: 569

Quote:

Originally Posted by jungmit

Why would battling regs give u bigger downswing ?

The edges are smaller in theory, variance gets cranked up the smaller advantages become. Of coarse playing a stuck rec on blowtorch mode will also increase the variance lol

PLO: pain, loss, oblivion

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08-22-2019 , 11:00 AM

#22

Haunt3d

enthusiast

Join Date: Apr 2019 Posts: 81

I play live, and I would say 20-40 buy in downswings are to expected a few times a year in crazy games. 1 or 2 worse could happen.
30 buy in - in a month wins are also pretty possible.

I mean, it’s plo. If you’re good and LaGgy expect to win 59-61% of your sessions probably, if you’re taking the high variance lines to squeeze out the most profit.

Tight players not going after the smaller +ev spots and making less big bluffs are going to have less crazy swings.

It’s just like no limit hold em, only expect to win less often ( in frequency, not in dollars)

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08-22-2019 , 01:49 PM

#23

pokerzplayerz

banned

Join Date: Aug 2019 Posts: 45

the way i'm going to play it i can only go on a 156 buyin downswing over a year.
that's if i play every saturday night every week of the year.

However I wouldn't make it that far anyways. i wouldn't have any money left to play since a 156 $100 buyin downswing at 1/3 is like 46 grand.

I could probably stomach a 50 buy-in swing before i consider if i wanna keep playing or not. hopefully its a upswing so i can consider buying in deeper.

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09-01-2019 , 07:58 PM

#24

FellaGaga-52

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2018 Posts: 8,919

Quote:

Originally Posted by FellaGaga-52

used to be radical, not they're insane ... thanks for asking

"now" they're insane .... that is

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09-16-2019 , 07:17 PM

#25

nightmaretilt

centurion

Join Date: Apr 2018 Posts: 182

I end a lot of sessions feeling emotionally exhausted. I just ended a rough session like five mins ago. Some days its so easy to detach from the results, but other days the losses feel really brutal for some reason. The pitfalls of being a simple primate that can not process variance I guess lol. I have become more numb to the swings over time, but When you earn a bunch of EV and realize none of it the losses just start to feel awesful

Do any of you ever feel worn out by Omaha variance?

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