Villain and I have a long history with each other. He has been up the past 2 days since I have been on a tilt bender. This session was the first time I was actually winning and giving him pressure.

I have check shoved him off of some huge pots when he did bet river. So I was thinking about bluff raising here since I know his river range is pretty wide. Often times when he 3bets, he would usually bet or check call. Rarely ever check fold. I have seen him check/call and peel with some weak hands. And I wouldn't be surprised if he was reverse floating here with some overpair or just any random pair.


Notable stats
Bet river 55%
3bets 60%
cbet in 3bet pots 55%

$0.25/$0.50 Pot Limit Omaha Hi
2 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
Hero ($209)
BB ($84.90)

Pre-Flop: ($0.75, 2 players) Hero is BTN 9 7 A 10
Hero raises to $1.50, BB raises to $4.50, Hero calls $3

Flop: 2 5 7 ($9, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $6.50, BB calls $6.50

Turn: 3 ($22, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: 3 ($22, 2 players)
BB bets $17, Herooo raises to $55?

If I do raise to $55, I think I need him to fold at least 41% of the time

AF and AFQ otr would be interesting too, but i think here agaisnt him u dont really represent much, so i think i would call u here a lot with any flush, straight and QQxx+...

i mean what u try to represents, 55xx or 77xx, this or air, so since u range is so polarized and i would expect you to bet the turn with both of this against this villain, i think i can find there easily a herocall!

and since he 3bets and float peal light, he can have here easily 2345 and stuff like this, so i would give up here a lot and wait for better spots...

the line you took is a little weird and just smells like bluff. if you two are heads up, then I'd expect a bet on the turn if you're trying to represent 55XX, 77XX, 35XX, 37XX on the river. bets from 35XX and 37XX seem kind of automatic to me on the turn, because of the other two hole cards that you might have with your bet on the flop: clubs, or 3544, 354A, 3542, 3567, etc.

So if that's the way you played it, and you're trying to represent 55XX and 77XX, then you'd be doing so without the flush draw, and would easily follow out a 3/4 to pot sized bet on the turn, as you have decent to good fold equity. A check on the turn with those hands just doesn't make sense to me, because you lose a good chunk of value in the fold equity, in my opinion.

So what hands are in your range at the river? I'd eliminate 55XX and 77XX, because of the line you took. If you followed up with a continuation bet on the flop and then nothing on the turn, then I'd assume you caught some of showdown value: A4XX, 46XX, 75XX, 73XX, 23XX, 35XX (all with no flush draw). Or you just have nothing.

If I were him, I'd probably throw out A4XX and 46XX. At this point, he probably assumes that you know he has a 50% shot of throwing out a good sized river bet. If that's the case, he/she would assume that you'd pot bet the turn to get value and get him/her off of his/her flush draw.

So you come down to the river and he/she bets almost the pot and you raise it a little over 3x, I narrow the range to the following hands: 23XX, 35xx, or the nut flush. MAAAYBE the second nut flush.

When you raise the river though, you set yourself up for the following:

1) Player folds the following hands: any two pair, set of threes, low flush (ten or lower is reasonable fold).

2) Player calls you with the following hands: Jack high flush or better, QQXX, A4XX, 46XX. The reason why I keep A4XX and 46XX in the range is because of the metagame going on. If you two have played a few sessions together, then he/she probably knows you know he/she will river bet half the time, and, thus, has pretty good showdown value for the river. Realize that as you catch on, he/she will catch on and end up turning river bets and river raises into good value. Not a whole lot, but will happen from time to time, until he/she notices that you notice.

QQXX is the only two pair hand I see him/her calling you with. KKXX and AAXX would have been re-raised pre-flop, and if you check on the turn, then to him/her: you have nothing but a flush draw, flush draw with a pair, 35XX, 73XX, 32XX, or nothing.

3) Player raises with the following: 35XX, 35XX, 73XX.

I think that overall, you had a good board to do that move on, but just chose a bad spot to do it. To take the line you did, means that you back into a pretty sexy hand with two running cards. Not unreasonable all things considered, but just a really lucky spot to be in.

BOTH of you have at least a minimal amount of fold equity with bets/raises on the river. BOTH of you are probably decently smart enough to notice that.

I'd just give up. I'm assuming you would be betting a set on the turn? So you're repping a full house with a 3 or possibly a high flush?

What's the worst you're expecting him to bet for value on the river? Him betting an overpair here makes little/no sense.

I think calling>raising, but both seem pretty bad.

if you are going to start betting on the flop you need to be continuing on these turns. I have no problem either betting or ck'ing flop, but if I bet flop its with the intention of following through often. As for river, if you want to raise I'd make it larger but I expect it to be just slightly profitable.