I'm at the WSOP cash games playing 1-2-5 omaha. I'm not being results oriented I first guessed this but knew I had to call. There's $100 in the pot preflop and I have K/K/J/3 with 1 club.

Flop is K/6/5 with two clubs. Player 1 goes all in for $90, player 2 repots all in for $310. Next player who is a whale hitting every hand repots for like $1,100 or something. I have $800 and strongly consider folding. I know literally half the deck I lose to. I lose to any 2,3,4,7,8,9 or club. So essentially there are what 4 other clubs so a total of approx 22 cards I have to dodge twice. I ran the sims and I'm like 44% to win. However if one of them has a set I'm 33% to win.

It's $800 to win $1300 so I think I have to call? Just curious if you guys call.

It weighed on me a few months ago I folded a very similar hand where I had Q/J/XX and the flop was Q/J/2 rainbow and 4 people were all in. Board bricked out and Q/J would have held and that was for a similar amount of money.

Its 800 to win 2100.

No.

Don't look for reasons to fold top set especially multiway. Very few scenarios I can think of if any. Maybe if you are super deep and there's a dry side pot and someone with top pair plus nut wrap plus nfd pots it...even then probably calling and shipping brick turns. It's never happened to me though in thousands of hours of playing.

You really shouldn't be thinking anything other than "I can't wait to get my money in good here" most of the time. Otherwise, you're just playing scared money. It's going to be +EV almost always.

Think it through, You decided to play this hand, and hit the nuts on the flop. No way you chose this hand hit the flop nuts and fold

There are theoretical spots in PL5 and PL6 where you should consider folding top set = nuts but I've never seen an obvious one

This spot is printing, you should be excited they let you get all in instead of having to play a turn.

Agree with this.

I'm curious what sim you ran where you had 33%. I feel like you're in better shape against the entirety of ranges here, but I also have zero experience in WSOP live plo tournaments.

The only argument I would see is that your tournament life is more valuable and you get to pick a better spot. But how often are you going to get an even better spot than this before you're short stacked? My understanding of plo tournaments is that getting deeper is going to be even more +EV in the run up to the bubble and pay jumps. Since it's hard for people to shove all-in, and you can take flops and realize equity without putting your tournament life on the line.

I think he is just location wise at the WSOP, but playing a normal cash game, not a tournament.

I concur to all the above, hard to see this being anything but a +EV jam.

I'm going to go off the rails a bit here ..

1) Yes, it would be interesting to see the 33% sim .. if that's the case, then it's bad math. You need 800 to win 1600 (2400) and it's not there at 1300. (But see below)

2) There are cases in PLO where folding the nuts may be OK. But in most of those cases your hand can't improve .. it can improve here.

3) Yes, they may have a lot of the stub .. but you can hit River if they hit Turn .. or just shut them out on Turn.

4A) Pick a range against 'hot whale' Player. Let's say you are 65% against him to win 1000 .. so +150 EV

4B) Now you are putting in 300 against 800 in the main pot. This is well within the right pot odds at 'supposed' 33% .. so +162 EV

4C) If you apply 33% to the whole pot (2100), then you are +157 EV (but you're not) Not sure how you're putting in 38% of the pot and still have +EV here?

My point is that 4C doesn't apply when there's such a disparity in the amount you are putting into the side. It's essentially a split pot at 1000 in the side and 'only' 1100 in the main.

Your EV more than doubles when you break down the two pots as I suggest here. Yes, you have to win the side before you can scoop the Main .. but there's zero chance you are not the favorite in the Side and they are probably sharing cards as well.

My math might be wrong, but I'll really battle you that my thought process is not flawed here .. you still ready to fold the nuts? GL

it's really not.

anyway, easy smash all in. besides you are looking at this the wrong way. all you have to do is beat the maniac. it doesn't even matter if you lose to the other guys. stacking off here is majorly profitable. sometimes you will have the maniac destroyed. usually you'll be a 2:1 fav vs some funky draw. occasionally you'll be flipping vs something ultra premium. so it's win, win, draw.

right. think of this as two separate bets. first bet is 500 at even money against a whale who can practically never be a favorite against you heads up. like, he needs to have wrap + FD and your other two opponents need dry sets with none of his outs. second bet is 300 to win ~790 or whatever, you need about 28% equity there, which it's pretty hard not to have with top set against 3 other hands who, again, are likely sharing outs.

aside from that, the answer to your overall question is lol nope, get it in.

Thanks for the responses. I got the 33% after I saw the hands and put into cardplayer odds. Another player had a set so 2 of my outs were dead and against a wrap and flush draw I was surprised also it was so low. Yeah I guess I'm never folding, but it's interesting even heads up I'm 45% to win against that hand

I guess I'm thinking about pot odds wrong. Still not clear on why it's not $800 to win $1,300

There's $100 in preflop. Another guy adds $90, then $310, then $800. There's now $1,300 in the pot and I have $800 to call all in. I guess do I count my $800 as part of the pot so its $800 to win $2,100? is that the thinking? Guess I don't get the pot odds thing, feel kind of dumb.

Nice troll OP.

Your pot odds calculation was actually correct moginsburg.

Pot Odds and Equity use the same numbers .. it's up to you on how you want to analyze them.

Pot Odds ... 800 to win 1300 .. 1 to 1.63

Equity .. 800/2100 .. You need 38% Equity to make a +EV call.

Don't get too caught up on 'exact' holdings when looking at spots. But you do kind of end up in the same place when looking at the types of holdings/ranges that you might be up against. Discounting/sharing outs in PLO is huge even when Player's fold out.

IMO the live tell of Player mucks is more important in PLO than NL. If a Player has to vacillate over a fold then you can assume that they were semi-connected to the spot, but not nutted and/or the Turn card changed their perception of their equity too much to continue. If a PF 3-bettor snap mucks on a middle Board then you can 'safely' assume that an over-pair has hit the muck. You may also be able to manipulate the pot so that 'flush draw only' holdings will fold out and thus your flush becomes a live Plan B to your wrap. Getting those T to Q flush draws to fold out can really improve your chances at a profitable spot. GL