Ive been shorting 2-4 PL for the past few days about 8 hours total and Im up about 1k, so Ive been doing well, but Im really in a tough spot here.. and with the wierd stacks Im not sure what to do, the button just sat, but roywing is a regular as far as Ive seen.

PokerStars Game #17021509609: Omaha Pot Limit ($2/$4) - 2008/04/27 - 00:39:44 (ET)
Table 'Magnya III' 6-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 2: AfterU2 ($1133.30 in chips)
Seat 3: UWZERO20 ($328.80 in chips)
Seat 4: Larry Emdur ($664.10 in chips)
Seat 5: Roywing ($436.80 in chips)
Seat 6: bargi bargeo ($208.30 in chips)
AfterU2: posts small blind $2
UWZERO20: posts big blind $4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to UWZERO20 [7d 7s Jc 9h]
Larry Emdur: folds
Roywing: raises $10 to $14
bargi bargeo: calls $14
AfterU2: folds
UWZERO20: calls $10
*** FLOP *** [Tc 7h 6d]
UWZERO20: checks
Roywing: bets $32
bargi bargeo: raises $106 to $138
UWZERO20:?????????

Use converter. fold as tt and 89 are much more likely on a rainbow flop.

fold every time

Are we really sure that it is that easy? Villain is at the button and we do not have any info on him. He could do this with a lot of hands, and as an unknown I would probably put him on a range like this:

89 - 40%
TT - 40%
66 - 15%
107 - 5%

Against this range we are actually 45% to win the pot and will only have to put in another 194 to win 266 if my calculations are correct. Ofcourse we have the original raiser to worry about, and this is obviously a problem. Villain could also have 89TJ or a similar hand which makes it even worse for us. But, with positon and a fold from OR I think this might be a shove. Our redraw to the nut straight gives us extra value which IMO can make this hand playable.

folding is bad.

FYP

tough spot since you're trapped btw the two players. you dont know what Roy is going to do / have, I think waiting for a better spot is a good play since you dont have the nuts and a very weak redraw.. do you really want to get all your money into this sticky spot?

and I did fold, because of that fact superstar... I felt like there would be a lot of better spots along the way, esp in omaha..

the preflop call is marginal. I like the flop fold but try not to think in terms of "finding better spots".

YOu can't get it in much better than 3 way with a set vs two villains with obvious straights. Especially when you got a gut shot to a probable chop. Roywing probably raised preflop with a run down and either flopped a straight or Cbetted with J+gut shot draw... if he's got TT, whatever, but that's a small sub set of his range. Even if you know with absolute certainly Bargi flopped the straight, you still should call. Folding is frigging ******ed here unless you know with high degree of certainty one of teh villains has TT.

I repeat, the call is a straight equity call. Yes, we're probably behind, but it's still +EV to call.

Not calling is just bad poker, and there isn't really room to argue. Yes, villains' probable ranges would tend toward some of the worse cases (TT > 66, and 89s will tend to come with a Q, counterfeiting our gutter) but it's not gonna be nearly enough to get a call to -EV.

Here, just in case you nits need to be spoon fed:

board: Tc7h6d
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
7d7sJc9h 45.78% 267,264 14,829
89** 54.22% 317,907 14,829

End up 3 way:

Main pot:
Omaha Hi Simulation
478,165 trials (Randomized)
board: Tc7h6d
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
7d7sJc9h 34.35% 157,539 14,027
89** 42.28% 139,429 126,085
TT**,66**,89** 23.36% 51,861 120,239

Side pot:
Omaha Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
board: Tc7h6d
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
7d7sJc9h 48.48% 285,533 10,646
TT**,66**,89** 51.52% 303,821 10,646

The distribution is probably wrong... 89 is probably a much bigger range and TT smaller with 66 and T7 eating up probably like 10% total. But I find it shocking someone with 15 posts got it so much closer to the mark than anyone else so far. It's probably not a shove since dragging villain (original bettor) is a highly desirable result for us if he's on T7 or a gut shot draw. We'd also like to leave some money to get value if we boat up (gonna be really hard for villains to fold given pot odds, espeically if PF raiser calls)

Approaching poker as strictly a mathematical problem to be solved ignores the fact that people are not machines. I am not saying you are incorrect about the equity in the hand. But you have to consider the effects of the action you are advising him to take.

He is new to $2/$4. He could easily be up against an over-set, or the nut straight - and he has only the full house re-draw. If he had a flush re-draw, I would say it's a no-brainer. But being able to fold the second-best hand, if you really feel you are beat, is an important ability to develop. Imagine he loses this pot, and then starts doubting his play because "he just knew he should have folded that hand." One-way ticket to deteriorating play.

Analyzing hands and game flow in an "equity vacuum" as if the players involved have no emotional or psychological reactions to the outcomes of their decisions is just as flawed as simply playing your own cards.

There is also the chance that he has the redraw to the nut straight which helps a lot equity wise. Ofcourse he could be up against both 8910J and 101098, but if you always expect that the villains show up the very top of their range, it is going to be tough to both learn and to play the game.

So are you saying he should choose a less +ev way to play the hand, so he wouldnt doubt himself??

Get it in here. Folding sets in raised pots when under 100bbs deep is pretty bad.

Roywing (villain leading flop) is VERY LAG and c-bets close to 100% of the time, so there's no guarantee that he has any part of this flop and is willing to come along if you raise/call.
Villain raising only has 50BB and if he's mildly observant he will know Roywing is LAG and could have 98xx, 66, TT, T7. With only half a stack I push in over the top. Grizy's calcs showed we're 45% against a 98xx and we're only in bad shape if villain has TT and even then we have a small redraw.

board is too dry to get middle set in here; if it was coordinated 2 to a suit, I'd have a much easier time justifying getting it in when a villain playing for 50BBs makes the raise.

The fact we're virtually guaranteed to see the river (since borgin won't have enough to bet us off the turn) adds to the call. If PF raiser raises, then as already posted, we have very good equity against his range too. If he calls, then it just adds to the value of our draw.

Again, folding is bad here unless you somehow you can say with a high degree of certainty you're up against a set of 10s.

I think your analysis is slightly off grizy. It's not hard to be in bad shape here when you have the only set, especially since hands that hit this flop more likely contain some of your outs than not, and when they contain 2 or more outs, you are in bad shape.

However I think it's a marginal shove. 66 would be an autofold and TT would not be marginal at all, nor would 77 with a nut gutshot.

I agree. It wasn't me that categorically said any set is an auto call. If any of the following were true I'd fold:
1. we had no gutter
2. the flop raiser were deeper.
3. if there were a flush draw we didn't have.

I don't mind a flop shove, but I rather call and drag villain 1 in. Only time we wouldn't want this to happen is if he's holding T7

Yeah I was using 'shove' as a general term meaning get all the money in on the flop or turn.

The problem with the gutshot is the same problem vs opponents who have straights with coordinated hands. Your gutshot is often dead, while having 779J instead will often give you a 10%+ chance of winning the pot outright or at least splitting.

Yeah, I mentioned in my post villain's hands are often biased toward hands that counterfeits many of our outs, but the numbers are so convincing with almost 50% equity vs a random 89 it's very hard for us to not extract 33% out of a call.

I don't think we disagree so I am gonna move on and go back to grinding out some more MTTs to meet my monthly goal (12 to go)

i agree with grizy. not calling is def bad. if it's headup, i'd be more likely to fold though.