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Theory:  Turn c/r vs. lead again w/ awkward stack sizes Theory:  Turn c/r vs. lead again w/ awkward stack sizes

09-08-2009 , 02:59 PM
One of the areas I've been trying to improve in is correctly identifying villain's stats / tendencies wrt stack sizes in order to get max value on strong made hands against a opponent's range that's heavily weighted toward draws.

Example:

Each player starts with 160 BB, you are UTG+1, villain is CO. You raise 3.5 bb with Kh Ks 3s 4h. CO calls. BB calls.

Flop, 3 players (10 bb):

Kd 8c 9c

You flop naked top set.

BB checks, you bet the pot. CO calls. BB folds.

Turn, 2 players (30bb): 2d

So, it's a totally safe turn card, but there still are a lot of rivers that are going to make the hand hard to play out of position. If you bet the pot here and he calls, you are still 120bb deep on the river in a 90 bb pot. If it comes a club, 7,T,J,Q and depending on the villain, 5 or 6, this is a difficult spot.

So, you're torn between trying to get value for your hand on the turn or risking giving a free card that allows him to hit one of his draws. The classic dilemma.

At what aggression statistics do you feel comfortable in going for the C/R here? What about against an unknown? Obviously, the C/R is the "best" play if you are sure villain will bet, as you get the bulk of your stack in here and now and the river play is automatic no matter what comes. How sure do you have to be? Is this more often a bet for most folks w/ these stacks?

I realize that this theoretical situation is heavily opponent dependent. If you know the guy in position likes to bet when checked to or will barrel his draws no matter what, then obviously C/R is optimal. And obviously, if you have the CO as a loose passive fish, you know he's taking the free card more often than not so you should bet and get value while you can. I'm not so much talking about these spots where a decision is clearly better one way or the other.

I'm just trying to figure out a good baseline to operate from when it's a gray area -- when the stats look like that of a normal TAG or for someone whom you have no reliable stats or reads on. If there's a side of the fence to fall on, which side do you fall on?
Theory:  Turn c/r vs. lead again w/ awkward stack sizes Quote
09-08-2009 , 03:38 PM
Bet. Obviously a c/r is best but having it checked back is an absolute disaster. Also betting hides your hand strength. This is just a cbet plus second barrel if you bet. c/r screams strength and will likely fold out bottom set or top two which are hands you want very much to stick around.
Theory:  Turn c/r vs. lead again w/ awkward stack sizes Quote
09-09-2009 , 03:20 PM
Guess everyone else must have this all figured out.
Theory:  Turn c/r vs. lead again w/ awkward stack sizes Quote
09-09-2009 , 03:32 PM
once you get to this kind of situation, how you progress is entirely read dependant so therefore there isnt a 'standard' line.
Theory:  Turn c/r vs. lead again w/ awkward stack sizes Quote

      
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