Hey guys,

Since we last talked, my friend and I have established communication again. The heated dispute was whether one should wait for a safe turn or not with a monster draw, given you knew the villain had a set. Well, you can't dispute the numbers. If you have perfect info, the EV is better to wait for a safe turn while holding a monster draw given these conditions:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/15...v-line-913621/

Fine. He's still wrong about God, but whatever.

***

9 handed, 2/5 game. Effective stacks $800

I'm in the SB with: QQ57

It's min-raised to $10, and half the table calls. Including me. Hey, I know its not the best hand in the world, shucks it's not even in the top 37,816 combos.... but I might flop top set. And Asahi says thats okay in his guide. So, no hating.

Flop, $70 in the pot: QJ4

Hot dog! Top set!

I check. And I check because I'm thinking about my little discussion regarding safe turns, and it dawns on me with half the table in, someone has a straight draw, someone has a wrap, someone else a flush draw... and I just don't see much EV in betting, and having everyone call. OR, betting, getting re-raised, and forced to put it in.

Everyone checks.

Turn: 2

Cool. This looks about as safe a turn as anything.

I check. And I'm checking because, I'm thinking someone's gonna take a stab here. And I want as much money in now as I can get.

Someone bets pot. Someone min raises. Someone calls. I shove. Everyone grumbles. I get one caller.

River: A

My queens hold up. The villain had a set of jacks.

***

So I'm pleased as punch, I tell my friend thinking he will be overjoyed to know that not only have I accepted his logic, I am applying it. He tells me I play like a water fish, and now we're not talking to each other again.

Any thoughts here guys?

Was he a close friend? Special friend? If yes then you should probably try to reconcile in some way, maybe go see a therapist.

Not sure what kind of advice you're looking for tbh, this isnt a psychology forum.

So if you have a draw and know it's impossible for villian to fold to a bet, there more ev in waiting to see if you hit?

Mind blown

Thanks Darth.

Well, I suppose the question could be rephrased...

How bad was my play?

Bet the flop. The last thing you want to do is give free cards to all those $hitty draws out there. If you pot it, an 8-high flush draw is folding, whereas if you check it down, you're letting him beat you.

You are a water fish

The way it played out was about the best you could hope for, so I don't know what you want from us.
Your logic is idiotic btw.

The thing I'm amazed with is there is another player playing as bad as you by checking middle set! I see better plays at 10PLO

**** why did i read this****

omaha is so tilting

Thanks Devil. I guess I was reluctant knowing I was out of position, and to build a pot when about 27 outs or so could hit against me on the turn. But your advice leans towards hand protection/having others fold out their equity. I have talked to others who expressed similar sentiments, particularly in a passive game. Or to check-raise in an aggressive one.

Lol, Kutty... I did have my suspicions.

Hah! Well, yes. As it played out, it worked out swimmingly. But, as I play around with the probabilities of this approach being positive EV... I don't see it. For instance, it's about 12% to hit a set, and only about 60% of those sets will be top sets. Even a top set could well be an underdog on many flops, and to factor in that in this situaton, I gave infinite odds for everyone to hit their draw on the turn ... I wonder if a bare QQxx could be played profitably from the SB.

How would you have played it?

Actually, I found the play money tables on Stars to be tougher than my live PLO games. And I'm not joking.

How would you have played this hand?

You are just ahead of the curve.

i would of just bet like 80% pot on the flop and seen how the others reacted and clearly when it got to the player with middle set i can only imagine he would of raised you so you could of just got it all in there!

just another point to make, when you check with top set your missing value from middle set/2pair etc that want to get the money in on the flop cause they don't want to see a flush come either so not betting is just a huge mistake.

also in omaha you have to bet so you know where your at in the hand and you can give your opponent some sort of range! like going into the turn you litterly have no idea what anyone has!

you should probably bet the flop but check raise is fine too so many way and in first position especially if you have a super nitty image. it's nice to have backdoor hearts so you can keep betting without fear on a quarter of the straight hits

We were all water fish at some point, it's nothing to be ashamed of.

you're ****ing terrible. i can't believe u play this game for real money

Thanks man, much appreciated. That all sounds quite reasonable. I just find myself in a position where I could be committed with very marginal edge, if any. Or building a pot where I could be dominated on the next card.

Perhaps that is simply unavoidable in this spot. I'm leaning towards not playing such a weak hand as QQxx in the SB. Or early for that matter.

Hi OF, you know, at the time I don't think I even acknowledged the backdoor flush as having anything but negligible value. Thanks for bringing this to my attention.

Much appreciated, Nirwanda, but I don't mind the abuse. I've done well for myself in the NL live games acknowledging my inabilities. I have found that what one posts on the internet, and how one plays at 3am, are worlds apart for many. But they are "tilted" so the play don't count, it doesn't need to be exposed, brought to the light of day, or ridiculed.

Instead, I see a lot of "grey" hands being discussed. This has very little practical value. As Tommy Angelo once wrote, these are the hands that we spend the most time on, and have the least impact on our return.

This hand is maybe not so grey!

Lol! Thanks ED.

***

Sidenote: I am fascinated with the interplay between expectation and variance. EV is meaningless to me if it can't be achieved within a reasonable time frame. For instance, we have a number of baccarat games that are susceptible to the dragon count, but I have no use for a 7% edge with the sort of variance that it entails.

Likewise, I talked to a very disciplined gentleman who shortstacked PLO and lost 100 buy-ins. $20K vaporized essentially playing AAxx. He is doing well now, as a deepstack player, and basis his game around position and capitalizing off fold equity.

If anyone wishes to discuss ideas around variance reduction techniques in the live PLO game, feel free to chime in. This was probably an extreme example, so much so that it even being a +EV play is questionable ... but I thought it might get the ball rolling.

I was thinking about variance reduction after watching the $10K PLO, and reading up on PLO tournament strategy.

They tend to raise less preflop, as they can't afford to miss the flop (no opportunity to rebuy like in a cash game). They want to reduce variance by getting as far as they can in a hand, without having to commit additional chips. So we might not see a 3bet from T987ss or the likes because if the flop comes K22, their hand is garbage now.

This applies to cash games as well. By raising less hands pre in attempt to push our equity edge, we also reduce variance by playing less inflated pots and having the option to invest more money after we see how the flop hits our hand.

This idea is similarly used in modern portfolio theory for stock and mutual fund investments. Portfolio managers can determine what level of variance they would like to be limited at, while still attaining a certain level of equity or expected return on their portfolio (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_portfolio_theory for a basic understanding)

This is especially applicable to me (and others who want to reduce variance), as I don't have 25 buy-ins at the 1/3 PLO that I'm playing right now, so I need to reduce variance all that I can. While this may reduce short-term equity gain, for me, the equity/variance trade-off is worth it.

Hey Devil,

Interesting you should mention investing, as playing around with Sharpe ratios was always my fascination in various forms of advantage play. I have a little bit of issue with MPT in that quantifying the variance of separate asset classes can be a somewhat speculative endeavor, but thats probably another topic. However, insofar as PLO is concerned, I found a few posts by Aesah that might be of some merit:

And ...

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/15...nyone-1258189/

Now, Aesah may well have changed his views on this over the past few years, but perhaps I could drag him over to this thread for any further thoughts.

Best,
Flux

(ps One hiccup to softer preflop, I've found, is the lack of skin in the game makes it difficult to get value on the hands that hit. There's probably a balance to this, but I'm still wrestling with it)

Man I know this is gonna sound narcissistic but IDGAF, I feel like I used to be smarter (or at least better at posting). Every time someone links one of my old posts I'm like "damn that's a good post". Also I'm drunk.

So, is a water fish different than a land fish?

+1
you may be a fish OP, but so is the majority of posters in HSPLO, so don´t worry

Well, a fish is a fish of course. But a water fish is the quintessential fish frivolously frolicking in his natural habitat.

Have you ever looked at a pool of fish, singled one out, and said to yourself:

"That fish is very fishy."

?



That was a water fish.

I had that experience with a waddle of penguins once. It was in Japan.

^ I like your style

😂😂😂

"There are these two young fish swimming along and they happen to meet an older fish swimming the other way, who nods at them and says "Morning, boys. How's the water?" And the two young fish swim on for a bit, and then eventually one of them looks over at the other and goes "What the hell is water?"