Snapping off two probable made hands? - Small Stakes Pot Limit Omaha

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Snapping off two probable made hands?

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07-24-2008 , 10:03 AM

gavz101

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 3,453

Poker Stars $0.50/$1.00 Pot Limit Omaha Hi - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

SB: $139.75
BB: $146.00
Hero (UTG): $106.10
MP: $66.15
CO: $188.00
BTN: $213.85

Pre Flop: Hero is UTG with T

Hero raises to $3.50, MP calls $3.50, CO calls $3.50, BTN calls $3.50, 1 fold, BB calls $2.50

Flop: ($18.00) 9

(5 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $17.10, MP folds, CO calls $17.10, BTN folds, BB calls $17.10

Turn: ($69.30) 5

(3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, CO bets $66.30, BB raises to $125.40 all in, Hero calls $85.50 all in, CO calls $59.10

Is this +EV in the long-run?

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07-24-2008 , 10:13 AM

JackInDaCrak

Just Another Dopamine Pump

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 9,234

In a best-case scenario (against two naked straights who have no redraws, no sets, no 9's, no T's and no hearts) you've got 33% equity in this pot.

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Tc 9d Ah Kh 12 33.33 24 66.67 0 0.00 0.333
Js Qc 3d 2d 0 0.00 12 33.33 24 66.67 0.333
2s 6c Qd Jd 0 0.00 12 33.33 24 66.67 0.333

I don't think you're gonna be in that scenario too often in a three-handed pot

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07-24-2008 , 10:35 AM

M.A.C.

newbie

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 35

i like checking the flop here, is that too weak? i mean with 4 others in the pot i would think that hte chaces are really good that someone has JQ, and they raise you off your hand. if no one happens to have JQ this time surely there is a 7J out there that may be hard to fold out.
do you guys like or dislike c/c flop here?

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07-24-2008 , 10:37 AM

M.A.C.

newbie

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 35

and i would def. c/f the turn as Jack pointed out

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07-24-2008 , 11:43 AM

soup nazi

banned

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 324

flop line. check raise> check call > bet call.. I admit its going to look sketchy check raising the flop but you might be able to fold out better hands

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07-24-2008 , 11:50 AM

Sh1LLa

adept

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 978

yea i think i'll agree with that. and don't u think firing the turn urself would be better than check and call all-in?

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07-24-2008 , 12:07 PM

Poker monkey

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 2,642

Anyone can bet and raise with the nuts. It's the folds you make when someone else has it that wins you money in the long term.

I don't think I like betting this flop into 4 people, especially if you're not following through on the turn. As played I think folding on the turn is better than calling so I guess it would be better to check the flop.

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07-24-2008 , 01:29 PM

TimberBee

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 2,956

I play it the same.

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07-24-2008 , 02:50 PM

mpkeezy

banned

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 1,014

yeah i like c/r is CO has been looser. otherwise i like bet bet bet.

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07-24-2008 , 05:13 PM

#10

Jim T

grinder

Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 565

Quote:

Originally Posted by JackInDaCrak

In the "best case" you have 13 outs. I'm not sure where the above poster got 12. You have 9 hearts plus 4 cards to make a FH. If you were just worried about how many of those cards might be in the other two hands, then I think it would be pretty much EV neutral wether you called or folded. Unfortunately, you might be up against something like QJTT, taking not only your two T outs, but ruining your two 9 outs, the 8h, and the 5h as well - leaving you with only 7 winning cards even before considering the SECOND villian's hand.

Tough fold given the pot odds and how pretty your hand looked on the flop, but pretty clear IMHO.

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07-24-2008 , 06:32 PM

#11

donkeykong2

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 3,567

only need 25% equity, easy call on the turn.

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07-24-2008 , 06:37 PM

#12

MYSPACETOM

banned

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 1,119

Quote:

Originally Posted by donkeykong2

only need 25% equity, easy call on the turn.

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07-24-2008 , 06:39 PM

#13

MYSPACETOM

banned

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 1,119

Quote:

Originally Posted by Poker monkey

It's the folds you make when someone else has it that wins you money in the long term.

Or making people fold when they have sufficient equity to call.

Folding here is a small mistake.

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07-24-2008 , 06:40 PM

#14

JackInDaCrak

Just Another Dopamine Pump

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 9,234

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jim T

You need to re-evaluate your out-counting technique.

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07-24-2008 , 07:55 PM

#15

Poker monkey

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 2,642

Quote:

Originally Posted by MYSPACETOM

Folding here is a small mistake.

If you know exactly what the other players have. Versus a straight and a set + flush draw you have what 5 outs?

You could be making a small mistake by folding but you could also be making a very big mistake by calling. If the best case is that it's more or less break even, I'm not sure this is going to make up for the non best-case occasions.

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07-24-2008 , 08:48 PM

#16

Dr ship it

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 587

Quote:

Originally Posted by Poker monkey

Anyone can bet and raise with the nuts. It's the folds you make when someone else has it that wins you money in the long term.

Very well said.

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