It was his first post on here, so obviously completely true

Lost most of my riches at PLO20 last night, but did a hit and run to make it back at NLO later on...

Several hands like these, would have be fun if I had won them...


Hand Information
Pot Limit Omaha, 0.2 BB (8 handed).
Hand History converter courtesy of pokerhandreplays.com

Table Information
Seat: 1 Player 1 ($72.35) Small Blind
Seat: 2 Player 2 ($63.6) Big Blind
Seat: 3 Player 3 ($25.15)
Seat: 5 Player 5 ($20)
Seat: 6 Player 6 ($6.4)
Seat: 7 Hero ($67.3)
Seat: 9 Player 9 ($19.19)
Seat: 10 Player 10 ($14.7) Dealer
Dealt to Player 10


Preflop (Pot:0.3)
Player 3 FOLD
Player 5 FOLD
Player 6 CALL $0.2
Hero RAISE $0.9
Player 9 FOLD
Player 10 CALL $0.9
Player 1 CALL $0.8
Player 2 RAISE $4.7
Player 6 FOLD
Hero RAISE $8.5
Player 10 CALL $7.6
Player 1 FOLD
Player 2 RAISE $35.1
Hero ALL-IN
Player 10 ALL-IN
Hero $48.9
Player 2 ALL-IN
Hero RETURN $3.7

Flop(Pot: $146.7)



Turn(Pot: $146.7)



River(Pot: $146.7)


Showdown:
Player 2 SHOWS

Hero SHOWS

Player 10 SHOWS

Player 2 wins the pot: $48.9

My eyes are bleeding

It was obv at plo2

That HH format is the worst thing I've ever seen. Why does it show what hand player10 was dealt in the beginning if we are "hero" in the hand? And don't get me started on the action itself

888 HH's work with few to no converters, not even the one here on the forums.

running under ev? ain´t no thang, ain´t no thang...

Swingaments! Stakes?

big majority zoom100, a little bit 50, a little bit 200, a little bit 500, a few hands 2k, as it should be

busted my bovada roll and had only a $5 tournament ticket left, ran it back up to $520 in about a week or so. Feels amazing.

That's where I'm at. I withdrew the whole roll after my 100bi run under EV and decided to take a break. I had about 500 bucks I could use for tournament tickets. Played some $5 NLHE donkament when I was drunk and almost final tabled and used that to run it up to $120 at plo5 over a few hours. I forgot how soft the micros were.

Haven't played yet since that night as I've been addicted to a new video game but I plan to get back on the horse in July. I bet it takes me 2-3 months before I can get out of the micros and back to small stakes and probably another few months before shots at mid-stakes if all goes well.

On the plus side I've "made" very good money on the withdraw. I got a bunch of bitcoins chilling out that have gone up over 50% in value since I withdrew so it's like I went on a super heater while putting in 0 time.

I personally invest in bitcoin. Recently went on a ~AUD$200-300 upswing per bitcoin. Happy days for all!

how many hands did it take you to run 100 buyins under EV?

It was over about 55k hands. I basically went a month and a half not winning a single all-in and went crazy mentally. When taken in context of my entire year though it isn't as bad. I'm under EV about 130bi over 300k hands. According to pokerdope the 100bi downswing had a 10% chance of happening in 50k hands which is even more crazy as that is a high percent, and is way more common than I would have ever guessed. I took a month off basically and started back up this weekend playing 1k hands. I'm back at PLO5-PLO10 because I refuse to deposit more money until the downswing stops and I can be confident I can win a pot and get in a better mental state.


note:
I feel like I'm only bitching here and I just need to put it past me, nothing I can do to change it or change the RNG. I'm not going to be saying any more about it or answer questions about it. Still makes me sick to my stomach thinking about it as it was about 20k in equity out the window.

decent setup otf

if it makes you feel any better I'm ~40 buyins below EV in my last 15k'ish hands

ayesha curry just tweeted this hand talking bout how rigged it was

When they told you online poker was dead
iPoker - $0.25 PL Hi (6 max) - Omaha Hi - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 155.36 BB (VPIP: 75.00, PFR: 37.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
BB: 46.44 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
UTG: 28.6 BB (VPIP: 80.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 6)
Hero (CO): 118.12 BB
BTN: 78.44 BB (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 3)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 4 J A T

fold, Hero raises to 3.4 BB, fold, SB calls 3 BB, BB calls 2.4 BB

Flop: (10.2 BB, 3 players) K 7 Q
SB bets 5.08 BB, fold, Hero calls 5.08 BB

Turn: (20.36 BB, 2 players) 2
SB bets 20.36 BB, Hero calls 20.36 BB

River: (61.08 BB, 2 players) 9
SB bets 30.52 BB, Hero raises to 66.04 BB, SB raises to 126.52 BB, Hero calls 23.24 BB

SB shows 3 2 K Q (Two Pair, Kings and Queens)
(Pre 45%, Flop 37%, Turn 55%)
Hero shows 4 J A T (Straight, King High)
(Pre 55%, Flop 63%, Turn 45%)
SB wins 37.24 BB
Hero wins 231.64 BB

I often see people claiming this, but Im fairly sure variance simulators cant calculate the probability of running x BI below AIEV in y hands. It calculates the probability of a player with a certain winrate running above or below his expectation by x BIs over y hands. Thats two way different things! There is NOT a 10% chance of running 100BI below AIEV in 50k hands, that probability is way way way less.

It had been about a month since I was on pokerdope. I guess I misunderstood what the chart was saying. I have put in similiar numbers and reran the simulations and then re-read the description text. It was 10% chance of having a 100bi downswing over a 100 million hands not 50k like I thought. It didn't take the hand number variable into account which I thought.

Having a 100bi downswing with an EV of 5 bb/100 is 14% anywhere within 100 million hands. (170bb std deviation) This is heck of a lot lower than I thought and it sure helps to read it. 5bb/100 is an extremely modest winrate for bovada so I'm feeling a lot more comfortable.

Their version of downswing is also losing money not running below EV. If I lose 5bi to stupid decisions I never considered that a downswing, I considered that being an idiot/playing poor, hitting the top of their range, etc. I think I may have been using downswing incorrectly. I didn't actually lose 100bi since I have a positive winrate. I was just 100bi under EV so I wasn't even comparing apples to apples which makes it sound even worse than it really was when comparing to pokerdope stats.

I've been playing with it for a good half an hour this morning and feel much more comfortable about it. When I enter my longterm winrate in there and look at the downswing stats chance of it happening anytime over 100 million hands is basically non-existent, 75-bi downswing is 0.22% if I just take my lifetime winrate since I had a hud. Losing over just a 30k hand stretch is only 13% and basically having a downswing over 30bi is about the same percentage.

TLDR: It sure helps to read correctly as some assumptions I was making on the stats were just so out of line it's not funny. The variance isn't even remotely as nuts as I originally thought since the simulations are over 100 million hands and not the number you enter for the charts below. I'm feeling much better about it now.

you get it in set over set, he hits quads, you obv consider that bad luck/downswing. also looks nicely on your ev line.

if you 5bet aces, get in 60% of your stack, shove a monotone flop and get called by a flopped flush with KKxx drawing dead, what´s that? no bad luck?
if you 5bet ****ty aces against a T987ds rundown, being only slighty fav, get in 60% of your stack again, shove on K22r flop and take it down, is that good luck? or do you deserve 100% of your equity there? still your ev line and your actual winnings line are identical in the latter cases.


all in ev line is nice and everything, but a deviation from your all in ev line to your actual wr is only one part of running hot or cold.

I have to remind everyone to keep in mind AIEV line is ALWAYS a better indicator of your true winrate than the greenline

Ran 10 buyins below EV in under 1k hands, debating if I want to continue living on this planet

I think most people grossly overestimate how much a graph tells you about your game. Nothing beats good old individual hand analysis

*The observer has to be a very knowledgable and skilled player to estimate what hand analysis tells him about the other player's game ;P