I made an calc analysis on the hand in this thread:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/15...-hu600-754045/
My analysis is on page 2 but I'm copy/pasting it here:
Basically I'm not sure about the calc itself on the turn.
Get kind of confused, seems like a ton of implied odds to me.
The 2273$ of implied odds (simplified situation) happens 20% of the time, but is that already accounted for from the flop calc, or is 20% of 2273$ (around 450$ top of my head) the actual net profit from implied odds every time we call the small 2.5x flop raise ? (would probably make more sense)
Also, might already be a mistake about the amount needed to BE on the turn (300$) (ok, just realized it is a mistake and it's 240$, I'm pretty sure Doesn't change my main concern about turn calc though)
Thanks for the answers, sorry for the long post.
If you assume villain is never folding, it's easy to calculate:
You call 384$ to win 1236$, getting 3.2 to 1. You need to make your hand around 24% of the time.
You have around 19-20% equity (18% in HE but a little more in PLO for obvious reasons)
Let's go with 20% and 25% for simplicity's sake.
When you call, you lose 385$ 80% of the time = 308$ and make 1236$ 20% of the time = 247$, or a net loss of 61$.
Since you're only hitting 1 out of 5 times, you need to make 300$ in implied odds on the turn to BE when you do hit. (pretty sure this is incorrect now)
If you make your hand, I think it's fair to say that you have villain in terrible shape.
If he had a hand on the flop (since we're going with the times he does), he has 20% equity max with a set trying to fill up, or is completely crushed with a lower straight and pretty much drawing dead.
Let's be optimistic for villain and say that he has 15% equity on average when we hit.
Now he stacks off on the turn with 1050$ effective behind in a 1810$ pot.
You will make 2860$ 85% of the time and lose 1050$ 15% of the time.
2431$ - 157.5$ = 2273.5$
That's almost 2000$ more than what you need to make to BE. (Doesn't this only happen 20% of the time or is 20% already accounted for from the flop calc?)
That's why when you say we should fold if we know villain is strong 100% of the time I just can't agree given how much you stand to make when you hit, obviously.
Now, in reality it's the opposite. If villain is always bluffing, we don't want to draw since he's not stacking off and therefore we have no IOdds at all.
Other interesting calc:
How often do we need villain to have a strong hand (understand stacking off on the turn with 1000$ left into 1800$ pot) to make our call BE implied odds wise?
When villain C/F on the turn we lose 60$. When he shoves, we make 2273$.
If he shoves 3% of the time, we're making a profit (68$ and lose 58$ when he folds 97% of the time)
If this calculation is correct, which I think it is, folding in this spot is ridiculously -EV, unless we think villain is bluffing more than 97% of the time.
And I'm not even counting the times he is indeed bluffing and decides to shove the turn with 0% equity into us...
