PLO50 - folding AAJ9r pre? - Small Stakes Pot Limit Omaha

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PLO50 - folding AAJ9r pre?

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10-08-2016 , 10:25 AM

sngrush

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 628

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Omaha Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37450308

BTN: $175.06 (350.1 bb)
SB: $104.15 (208.3 bb)
BB: $58.55 (117.1 bb)
Hero (UTG): $50 (100 bb)
MP: $101.53 (203.1 bb)
CO: $37.89 (75.8 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J

Hero raises to $1.75, MP raises to $6, 2 folds, SB raises to $20.25, Hero ???

Get the Flash Player to use the Hold'em Manager Replayer.

Hi!

MP is playing 26/13 3b 3 over 880 hands. 3b from MP vs UTG is 3 overall.
SB is playing 25/12 3b 3,4 and hasn't 4b yet over 135 hands.

Is this a fold?

Thanks!

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10-08-2016 , 11:20 AM

NMcNasty

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2004 Posts: 3,990

Is fold AA pre the new don't 3bet AA pre?

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10-08-2016 , 01:54 PM

Loctus

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 11,280

gii since it's fun and more painful for the two of them being 200bb deep imo

To be honest I'm not sure that there is much reason to talk about this spot at all. I don't think there's an edge to be had no matter what you do.

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10-08-2016 , 02:31 PM

Rei Ayanami

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 11,685

With these weak aces, I'd limp to avoid getting blown off our equity if the action goes 3-bet -> cold 4-bet -> cold 5-bet. I'd gii here though since it's impossible for anyone to have AA when we block one ace, let alone two.

In all seriousness, you can run some numbers. It's a fold if MP has a 4% PJ range and SB always has AA, unless you think MP is finding a fold with stuff he shouldn't fold with, like rundowns and good connected pairs without an ace. I thought this was a joke thread at first but it's not such a clear stack-off.

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10-09-2016 , 12:15 PM

Controlling

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2015 Posts: 593

To fold here you need to be sure that SB has AA** and that these are good AA**. If there is the slightest chance that SB is rasing here with AKKQds you should gii. The stats do not look like it, but the reason can be samplesize.

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10-09-2016 , 12:29 PM

z0mgtiltz

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 10,948

I don't think it's unreasonable to fold

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10-09-2016 , 01:21 PM

Controlling

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2015 Posts: 593

Quote:

Originally Posted by z0mgtiltz

I don't think it's unreasonable to fold

my first thought was also fold, but isn`t the slightest chance of sb having not AA worth it to gii? We are never far behind (usually only when MP calls with a rundown) but when we catch SB one time with non AA we gain some nice EV.

I have no big problem here with folding but i have also not a big problem with gii.

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10-09-2016 , 01:37 PM

Rei Ayanami

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 11,685

We have 28% against $3B4I and AA, which doesn't materially change when MP folds about a quarter of his range, the hand that kind of blow against AA.

$4B2 is 10% non-AA, and changing AA to that increases our equity to 29%, which isn't good enough. So "slightest chance" isn't really enough.

$4B3 is about a quarter non-AA, and we have about 32% when it's changed to that, which is probably enough including the times MP folds.

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10-09-2016 , 02:04 PM

Controlling

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2015 Posts: 593

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rei Ayanami

If the samplesize for SB would be bigger i would fold too. After 135 hands i am not really sure. That`s all what i am saying.

But i think the biggest value of this discussion is that some people see that AA ist not an auto gii-hand. Thats good for me.

And by the way: There is a HUD-stat called "3bet (or 4bet) is AA" for everyone who is interested in it.

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10-10-2016 , 01:28 PM

#10

NMcNasty

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2004 Posts: 3,990

I'll concede you probably have to fold aces pre once every 100k hands or so, saving you around two or three dollars.

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10-12-2016 , 02:23 PM

#11

Alsi

journeyman

Join Date: Aug 2016 Posts: 361

I think it s close

everyone said everything already, rundown vs AAxx very likely (can be donkey to 4bet OOP 200bb deep vs MP if no decent AA and it s his first 4bet)

u can expect one of them to have one or ur A blocker or many of ur straights blockers .

However, that being said, I might call in hand but if I take time to run the analysis? I find myself a fold there to avoid variance on a close or freeroll/vert unfav spot.

fold is not nit.

+1 on limp on RAG AA or even 1 suit 1 dangler
i agree with the books weak AA are drawing hands .

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10-12-2016 , 04:58 PM

#12

TrueHeart

enthusiast

Join Date: Apr 2016 Posts: 73

Quote:

Originally Posted by Controlling

Except the equities dont change (they do, by 0.01%) when you add 12 combos (AKKQds) to 6.7K combos (AA) for SB. Opponent needs to have way more non AA combos than just 12.

It appears more important fact is they both are deeper, so MP will be folding.even at 100bb eff. stacks, MP will be still folding (not calling 100%)

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10-12-2016 , 05:26 PM

#13

Rei Ayanami

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 11,685

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alsi

u can expect one of them to have one or ur A blocker or many of ur straights blockers .

No ****, the SB has AA a lot.

I really don't understand your point about straight blockers. It's a pure math spot, so just look at equities instead of trying to piece together the right decision purely with qualitative thinking.

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10-14-2016 , 03:44 AM

#14

F_Ivanovic

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 4,659

More than 100bb deep and this would be a close spot. 200bb I would probably happily fold. 100bb there's no way I'm folding. MP being 200bb deep with SB increases the chance he makes a mistake and decides to just fold not wanting to get in 200bb deep with w/e he has.

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10-14-2016 , 04:28 AM

#15

Controlling

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2015 Posts: 593

Quote:

Originally Posted by TrueHeart

It appears more important fact is they both are deeper, so MP will be folding.even at 100bb eff. stacks, MP will be still folding (not calling 100%)

Not calling 100%, but he will gii a lot if he is not a donk. I gii here happy with any unpaired random trash.

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