Villain is somewhat tight 20/15/5 agg 2.6 with a flop c bet of 58%. Elected to call pre as there was a fish i the blinds, generally i'd probably mix in calling and 3 betting w/o the fish.

Hate him betting into 5 players with a fairly respectable cbet %, so 230bb deep i think this is a standard call.

Like his turn bet even less - at this point i'm not even thinking about bluffing rivers, i just want a cheap showdown.

River is an interesting card. Any other spade makes this an easier bluff imo, as i don't think he buys that i have drawn twice to a bare non nut flush, and hands that contain K-T flush draws obviously connect with this board pretty well on the flop where we would raise, so i'm not sure our bluff makes a lot of sense.

His bet river 13% (1/8); fold to river bet 67% so he may well be CCing a non-nut flush.

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
PL Omaha $0.25(BB) Replayer
SB ($26.57)
BB ($23.88)
UTG ($49.83)
UTG+1 ($59.98)
CO ($25)
Hero ($78.98)

Dealt to Hero A J Q 9

fold, UTG+1 raises to $0.75, CO calls $0.75, Hero calls $0.75, SB calls $0.65, BB calls $0.50

FLOP ($3.75) 4 J 9

SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 bets $3.05, CO folds, Hero calls $3.05, SB calls $3.05, BB folds

TURN ($12.90) 4 J 9 6

SB checks, UTG+1 bets $10.49, Hero calls $10.49, SB folds

RIVER ($33.88) 4 J 9 6 A

UTG+1 checks, Hero.....

Don't see us getting value from worse, he probably doesn't have jj or 99 which would be what we want to fold out with a bet. I check.

Check, he's never folding a flush since the As hit, also since he's tight preflop he wont be showing up with 6high flush like those 60/40 guys. Since we block all sets it's unlikely he's got one so i dont see any reason in betting here.

Can we raise this flop for value are we not ahead of his range?
If not why is calling better?

Thanks

With a c-bet of 58%, which is on the lower side of decent, and betting into 5 players, I expect him to have a range probably limited to AAxx w/spades, JJ, 99, J9 with extra (his J9 is likely to be hands like 9TJQ) and wrap/flush combos.

if we got it in, i expect we'd have no better than 40% on average.

No need to bluff with a hand this strong.

I'd raise the turn and checking the river seems like the only play he rarely folds better and veeeery rarely calls worse. I guess if you think his flop range is that strong you can probably just call turn. I would also 3bet this deep on the button 100%

wp, check back river. I don't think it's likely he folds many or any flushes when all the straight cards missed. You have plenty of showdown as well. I could probably get on board with bluffing KQJ9

def. not betting this. seems like a game theoretical disaster to do it.

I knew when i posted this with my analysis that i had made the right call, and i think my analysis probably swayed most of the posting too :P. I did indeed check it back and he had AJJxss - at the time did feel like a missed opportunity, but given our line i think he still calls his set here often as our hand looks much more like a missed wrap than a flush once A hits.

Does anyone consider bluffing if the river is any spade other than the A?

If you're not calling flop and turn with a bare non-nut flush draw, then if you do have a missed wrap on the river, it would def have spades no?

Not necessarily - a wrap with non nut spades raises this flop imo, as do other strong hands like J9KsQs.

Hands like 789T can definitely take the line i did.

Is raising the flop with non-nut spade wraps vs this range profitable?
(If we're under the assumption he is not planning to b/f the flop)

I agree wraps like 789T(no suit) can take that line, but it seems less profitable if we don't have a decent amount of spade wraps in our river range. (This allows more fold equity from bluffing some spade rivers)

Against that exact range, yes.

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation

2,489,520 trials (Exhaustive)

board: 4 J 9

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
AsAxsx, JJxx, 99xx	39.88%	983,105	19,308
8stcjcqs	60.12%	1,487,107	19,308

turning hand into a bluff would be good on spades that complete straights, like 8s, Ts, Qs, Ks, because in this cards he would have a lots of hands better than yours that would fold (all straights). plus, on this cards your bluffing range should be 0%, because either your perceived range has either a flush or straight.

on this rvier, what worst hands he has and fold to your bet?

you will be balanced in this spot if you bluff your missed wraps and value betting your flushs. if you are betting this hand on river, your river bet won't be balanced because then you would be betting your entire range.

Would folding turn be bad? Our hand hasn't improved and if we are behind now we have no outs to improve. If we are ahead (which won't be too often) then we may well have to play a guessing game on a few rivers. Like you said yourself OTT you were just hoping for a cheap showdown and if I ever feel like that then it usually means you should probably be folding.

thats much closer to value than bluf

Well I think its pretty exclusive, I'm assuming if we add other similar strength hands our equity will go down.

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

board: JS9S4C

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
asaxsx,jjxx,99xx	52.87%	315,671	3,086
qsjctc8s,ksqsj9	47.13%	281,243	3,086

Along that logic, would you consider folding flop?

I think flop call is fine. Sure, there isn't too many ways to improve if we are behind now (we do have BDFD tho plus runner runner straight!) - but villains range for betting flop is going to be slightly wider than his range for betting turn. Plus we have position. It's probably not a big mistake to just fold flop but I do think calling is fine.

^ yeah agree I think folding turn is actually ok. When i played the hand i felt uneasy about his turn bet and ultimately is this spot against this villain one where we are going to have a significant edge with such a marginal hand? I think its's perfectly reasonable to take a $5 hit and move into the next hand.

In regard to the notion and fact that "Folding Flop" was brought up:



As played this entire hand looks ok/fine but we can give some credence to folding turn in this spot.

Yea his flop range is wider, but I think were under the assumption it's

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation

1,537,500 trials (Exhaustive)

board: j94

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
asaxsx,jjxx,99xx,jt98+	77.20%	1,160,036	53,927
adqdjc9c	22.80%	323,537	53,927

I think thats rough, but not unreasonable- our true equity is probably somwhere between 30-35%

Agreed position will give us more opportunities for fold equity and cheaper showdowns, but

1) Absent any meaningful reads, what is our strategy for after the flop? (as you said it's a guessing game)
2) Does this strategy give us enough equity to make it profitable? (will it raise our equity from 30-35% to above 50%)


It seems like on the turn, versus a thinner range, we are at best around 30%. If we can use position to raise our equity to over 50%, then we have an edge. Does that sound reasonable?

Well, we are getting 30% pot odds OTT, so as long as on the river we lose on average as much as we win then calling is a b/e play.

As far as our equity goes, he has to have some J9xx in his range (which we are doing ok against with our overs); the caveat being it's always J9 with extra, given his tight stats and EP raise.

I'm not sure I agree,

I'm trying to give him a range where we have at least 30% equity on the turn

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation

2,003,260 trials (Exhaustive)

board: J94

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
AsAXsX,JJxx,99xx,JT98+,KQJ9,AQJ9,AKJ9,KJT9,KsKXsX,QQJT,KsKJTs,QQJ9,KKJ9	71.65%	1,352,493	165,675
AdQdJc9c	28.35%	485,092	165,675

Maybe I'm missing some hands? Although, if we also consider the hands included in the range that would be removed (ie JJ23) I'm not sure there are enough hands to give us 30%

Also, if we go ahead and say that we have 30% equity to call turn (pot odds), I don't really see how we are going to win as much as we lose on average.

We are inherently ahead on the river only 30% of the time, and alot of those times we can't really get much value from worse and must basically hope for a cheap showdown. We also have really poor reverse implied odds against better (if the river blanks I assume you hero call some % of the time).

So I'm not really sure we can realize that 30%, let alone find another 20% worth in fold equity to make the play breakeven.

Not saying it can't be breakeven, but I think we would need a solid plan to realize the 30% equity we currently have and also successfully bluff enough to compensate the other 20%.

Thoughts?