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PLO25 Triple barrel? PLO25 Triple barrel?

03-31-2010 , 02:29 PM
Party Poker $25 Pot Limit Omaha Hi - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BB: $18.70
UTG: $52.22
CO: $24.19
Hero (BTN): $76.63
SB: $25.00

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BTN with J J T A
UTG raises to $0.85, 1 fold, Hero raises to $2.90, 2 folds, UTG calls $2.05

Flop: ($6.15) 9 6 T (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $4.38, UTG calls $4.38

Turn: ($14.91) 7 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $14.17, UTG calls $14.17

River: ($43.25) 7 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero ?

Ok so betting 2 streets with all my draws is standard, I think. What to do on the river? If he has a boat, I really expect him to bet out. Is a b/f here a good play, given that there are a lot of draws in his range that have missed?
PLO25 Triple barrel? Quote
03-31-2010 , 03:28 PM
Really tough spot. The only hands you are behind that would fold are KKQx/KQQx + fd or KQQJ/KKQJ, and maybe T98x.

If we assume he's only playing top 20% hands utg vs a 3bet, then using ev++,

(KQQJ,KKQJ,KKsQ*s,KsQsQ*,KcKQc*,KcQcQ*)&20% 679 hands
(TT**|99**)&20% 4020 hands
(T98*)&20% 1144 hands

If we assume he leads a boat 75% of the time that leaves 1k times he has a boat, 1k times he has a straight, and 700 times he has an overpair.

I think I check it back and hope he had like QJ+fd. I think u get looked up too light if you bet less than 1/2 pot, and he only has $30 left so u don't have alot of sizing options.
PLO25 Triple barrel? Quote
04-01-2010 , 04:35 AM
*bump*

^^Thanks for the numbers, very useful. So if I assume he's folding all his overpairs, and folding a straight say 20% of the time when the board pairs, am I not getting the ~30% fold equity I need for a half pot bluff to be a good play?
PLO25 Triple barrel? Quote
04-01-2010 , 06:04 AM
I would show it down.
PLO25 Triple barrel? Quote
04-01-2010 , 06:51 AM
check river you have some showdownvalue and his range contains of draws and some TP or 2pair alot here. Reads on villian would be helpfull.
PLO25 Triple barrel? Quote
04-01-2010 , 07:24 AM
Check. You have plenty of showdown value and he would have bet a straight already. He's either got a 2p that you're beating or a boat.
PLO25 Triple barrel? Quote

      
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