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[PLO25] Top 2, river descision [PLO25] Top 2, river descision

09-21-2014 , 04:18 AM
    Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 Pot Limit Omaha Cash, 6 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #30868931

    SB: $29.70 (118.8 bb)
    Hero (BB): $25 (100 bb)
    UTG: $10.37 (41.5 bb)
    MP: $66.27 (265.1 bb)
    CO: $17.17 (68.7 bb)
    BTN: $25 (100 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is BB with Q 6 K A
    UTG raises to $0.50, 2 folds, BTN calls $0.50, SB folds, Hero calls $0.25

    Flop: ($1.60) A K 8 (3 players)
    Hero checks, UTG bets $0.25, BTN raises to $1.63, Hero calls $1.63, UTG folds

    Turn: ($5.11) 3 (2 players)
    Hero checks, BTN bets $4.89, Hero calls $4.89

    River: ($14.89) 9 (2 players)
    Hero checks, BTN bets $14.26




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    Villain is a decent reg. 25/20/7(3b) over 600 hands

    Hows my line? Is this a snap?
    [PLO25] Top 2, river descision Quote
    09-21-2014 , 05:04 AM
    From the button he shouldn't have AAxx or KKxx.

    The only hand that plays that way and beats you is 88xx.
    Still not sure what to do though because if he is decent he shouldn't play K8xx or A8xx that way.
    [PLO25] Top 2, river descision Quote
    09-21-2014 , 07:05 AM
    The only hands he can have here are 88, AK or QJTx plus some crappy KK, AA handsx. The decision is based o how often he raises QTJ on this flop. iP I guess with his stats not much (if he was that kind of player he'd probably raise a broadway rundown pre).

    Given he will also often raise many good AK hands pre, but call almost all playable 88 hands, I would definitely fold river until I had seen him unloading the clip over three barrels on a semi bluff when your hand looks very much like what it is. Against many players with these stats, unless much deeper, I think the most exploitative move is to fold the turn.

    His river sizing also discounts AK. Does he think A8 will pay off this bet?

    Last edited by Czech Rays; 09-21-2014 at 07:14 AM.
    [PLO25] Top 2, river descision Quote
    09-21-2014 , 08:36 AM
    honestly i probs fold river, his sizing fricking sucks, regs dont barrel like this from what ive seen, at best your chopping

    in game thou i'd call and smash mouse
    [PLO25] Top 2, river descision Quote
    09-21-2014 , 08:39 AM
    I'd say there's also small chance that button is bluffing, cause utg min bets the flop.
    [PLO25] Top 2, river descision Quote
    09-21-2014 , 03:25 PM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by bubo78
    I'd say there's also small chance that button is bluffing, cause utg min bets the flop.
    I had the same thought, but once BN sees hero cold call his raise, it should make him less likely to triple barrel if he was bluffing. Top two should be the bottom of hero's cold call range, so I would think BN would slow down sooner or later especially when the board didn't change.
    [PLO25] Top 2, river descision Quote
    09-22-2014 , 03:24 AM
    You lose to basically one hand and given the lol cbet theres enough air in his range that I'm calling. I think hes more likely to giveup after you call the flop, as opposed to after you call turn.
    [PLO25] Top 2, river descision Quote
    09-22-2014 , 08:12 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by getthatmoney
    You lose to basically one hand and given the lol cbet theres enough air in his range that I'm calling. I think hes more likely to giveup after you call the flop, as opposed to after you call turn.
    At the very least, Villain will have half as many KKxy as 88xy.

    [PLO25] Top 2, river descision Quote
    09-22-2014 , 08:13 AM
    Hm, not a bad flop.
    [PLO25] Top 2, river descision Quote
    09-22-2014 , 12:33 PM
    i would bet the flop myself and i disagree that he cant have KK or AA. the fact that the didnt 3bet and that you have blockers just makes it less likely.
    [PLO25] Top 2, river descision Quote
    09-22-2014 , 01:17 PM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Rei Ayanami
    At the very least, Villain will have half as many KKxy as 88xy.
    Vs a 40bb stack who min-rz'd I assumed any reg is 3betting all KK preflop.

    Might not be true at these stakes tho.
    [PLO25] Top 2, river descision Quote

          
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