No PLO HUD, only note I have is he potted a 15BB pot on the river, and folded to a 1/2 pot raise. I think obviously if this is a call, its a bluff catcher, but, is it a call?

Bet bigger on turn

Your note on him makes me want to call this but him potting into 2 players I think I cry and fold

Raise flop bigger, bet turn Much bigger, fold river
oh, and 3bet pre

If you had this to do over again, how much of a bet would you be willing to call if the CO had made it a different size? $10, $15?

Whatever the answer to that question is, I believe you should have bet that amount on the river. Worse 2 pair combos will call, and non-nut straights will also call in many cases. But you get to set what you’d be willing to pay, not given them an opportunity to set the price without having a monster.

To me, you must be checking the river to fold to any bet. That’s probably not said as best as I’d like. Let me try again. On the river you miss your flush draw and a straight hits the board. UTG should have a premium hand but since we have no stats on him, he might have 6789 and not AAKT. 3betting pre would have helped us narrow his range a bit. The CO though, is probably more likely to have the 6789 type of hand.

Thus, I assume you read the situation as “one of these guys has a straight, so I need to check/fold and man, I hope no one bets!” If so, then just fold and move to the next hand. But if you have any intention of calling a bet, why not bet yourself what you’d be willing to pay. Now, someone could come over the top of you as a bluff. That’s plausible for sure, but maybe they would have bluffed you anyway if you checked to them? OOP I think we have to try to protect our thin value hands on the river, imo.

In this case, the river bet can’t be large enough to give you odds to call if someone does raise over the top of you.

All very good points, and I am going to read this over some more. I checked the river because I thought I had showdown value, and could get there cheap. UTG also checks. Putting yourself in the shoes of the CO... A half pot bet gets flatted by UTG on the turn. River goes check check to you. If you are shoving for value here, how often are you expecting to get called, and make more money here?

Not really. I thought one of them hitting a gutshot here was possible, but not probable. I thought instead of completing a gut shot, it was more likely to have made someone a smaller two pair. If I bet half pot here, and get raised, that looks super strong, as there is only like a 1/3 pot bet left, and it looks like I might not be able to fold. My thinking was there was a very good chance I had the best hand, but it wasn't a hand I wanted to face a raise with.

As it played out, I think a smaller bet by CO, say around half pot or a little less looks alot more convincing that he has it. I don't see him expecting his bet to get called very often, seeing how the action went leading up to it.

Low straight draws are weighted. We expect UTG to raise a set on flop or turn.

Bet turn much higher as stated

Folding river

Everyone here says fold riv but not me. I LOVE to value-check/call these rivs, especially against spewy donks. Sure they could actually have it from time to time but I find that the majority of the time, it's a missed draw.

There's a double flush draw on this board which both missed. Could be a pair+flush draw type hand on flop, then picked up a second flush draw/and-or broadway straight draw on turn. Misses everything so decides to pot at it.

I check/call here and expect to scoop

+1

I would almost certainly call this HU, but not 3 way.

And yes, 3 bet pre, bet more flop and turn.

A few questions...

Why HU, but not 3 way. The action the way it went, does the fact that the UTG player is in the hand make that much of a difference, given the way he has played it?

If I do 3bet pre and/or bet more on the flop and/or bet more on the turn, and the rest of the action remains the same, CO is shoving much less than a pot size bet on the river. Would that still be a fold?

UTG and I, it appears, have shown some weakness when it is checked to CO on the river (maybe you disagree). CO has done nothing but call up till this point. Other than maybe some A2 with A high diamond draw, what hands better than top 2 do you expect him to show up with here? If he flopped or even turned a set, with redraws to the nut flush/straight, that's a very small range, no? Is it big enough of a range for a fold though?

I think it's unlikely that UTG has something that beats us, but we have the A and K of spades which does suggest that the other players in the hand are not drawing to a flush, or if they are they have something else to go with it.

That the hand is 3 way works against us for 2 reasons. Firstly, there is more chance that someone is in here with a straight draw, which secondly reduces the chances of someone bluffing, and therefore i don't like calling 3 way without some kind of solid read on the situation which we don't have.

And finally, given this information i think it's more than a possibility CO has made his straight and is check calling. From what i have seen of these stakes, there isn't nearly enough value betting.