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PLO25: hopeless bluff? PLO25: hopeless bluff?

03-03-2011 , 09:54 PM
Poker Stars $25.00 Pot Limit Omaha Hi - 5 players - View hand 1213048
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Hero (CO): $46.80
BTN: $24.20 - VPIP: 89, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 0.8, Hands: 18
SB: $75.83 - VPIP: 30, PFR: 23, 3B: 6, AF: 4.5, Hands: 233
BB: $9.75 - VPIP: 54, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 2.3, Hands: 54
UTG: $25.00 - VPIP: 32, PFR: 21, 3B: 8, AF: 2.5, Hands: 133

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is CO with 4 5 4 5
UTG raises to $0.75, Hero raises to $2.60, BTN calls $2.60, 2 folds, UTG calls $1.85

Flop: ($8.15) T K 2 (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $4.00, BTN calls $4, UTG calls $4

Turn: ($20.15) A (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($20.15) J (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $14.00,

like/dislike line? my redline is terrible looking for more river spots to bluff. ty
PLO25: hopeless bluff? Quote
03-03-2011 , 09:55 PM
pf fine

flop betting half a pot 3way.. Just burning money. give up.

River... LOL



U dont need to win every pot.
PLO25: hopeless bluff? Quote
03-03-2011 , 11:09 PM
that river bet is rather amusing to be fair lmfao
PLO25: hopeless bluff? Quote
03-03-2011 , 11:19 PM
next time donate to the red cross instead imo, atleast this way you get a tax deductable receipt
PLO25: hopeless bluff? Quote
03-04-2011 , 12:10 AM
Not as bad as others are making it out to be imo (I've personally bluffed in even worse spots many times), but yeah def ill-advised and -EV. Would be a much, much better bluff had btn folded flop and you were hu with utg on river.
PLO25: hopeless bluff? Quote
03-04-2011 , 12:37 AM
betting $7-8 is so much better

hell $5 probably works just as often as $14
PLO25: hopeless bluff? Quote
03-04-2011 , 02:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spenda
betting $7-8 is so much better

hell $5 probably works just as often as $14
If the btn was good, I would agree, but against someone who appears to be fishy, I'd go at least 1/2 pot if I were to bluff here so as not to entice him to call with some bogus aces up hand.
PLO25: hopeless bluff? Quote
03-04-2011 , 03:07 AM
Betting flop isn't fundamentally bad, but you're probably better off giving up with the absolute worst possible hands for each situation on such drawy boards. A vast majority of hands that you would prefer to fold, actually get the correct odds to call against your range here, which means your bet is pretty clearly -EV.

The river play pretty much goes against game theory. Your bet is a mistake regardless of your four cards (!). This may not be intuitive. I'll try to explain:

Even if neither villain folds absolutely any hands on the flop, their pre-flop ranges end up making the nut straight over 60% of the time. The actual probability of someone having the nuts on the river is even higher, because a lot of the hands that don't end up being Broadway OTR just fold the flop. Therefore, betting 14$ with any non-nut hand is a losing play even if villains fold everything but the nuts, because either will have the nuts too often for a bluff to show a profit.
Ok, QQxx without the straight could just maybe get enough FE to make it a passable bluff with this sizing (because having the queens means there are less nut combos left). But even then, you'd much rather make a significantly +EV bluff by betting 7$ while seeming to have an equally strong range.

The difficult part for a lot of people to understand is that betting 14$ is a mistake with the nuts as well (unless hero is abusing someone who doesn't know the rules and shoves 222x because he has quads). In the perspective of both villains, in case he does not have the nuts, it's very likely for either of Hero or the Other Villain to have them, in which case it would be a mistake for them to call with any non-nut hand unless the bet is so small, that it could plausibly be a +EV bluff, in which case a non-nut hand could get the odds to call against a betting range of [nuts, occasional bluff].
Betting big here does not achieve "looking like a bluff that doesn't want to get called so they'll call!", it simply should not get any value from even the 2nd nuts and below, and of course always splits the pot with the other nuts. But even that doesn't make 14$ a +EV bluff sizing, simply because of the probability of running into the nuts.
Bluffing against the nuts is indeed hopeless, which answers the original question.

Cliffs: when the splittable nuts (mostly straights, maybe boats in extreme cases) are piss easy to make, betting big is a mistake regardless of hero's hand
PLO25: hopeless bluff? Quote
03-04-2011 , 04:22 AM
river is bad, flop is marginal. against 2 players for sure someone will have the straight/Draw.

On the flop ur saying u either have a Set/ Draw / FD. on the turn the straight hits, and you do not continue ur betting which means ur hand is likely to be either a Set / FD. Then the river puts a J on which means any Qx combo is calling. So i dont think betting is good here. i think Q9 would look you up here. or even 2 pair considering the way you played your hand.
PLO25: hopeless bluff? Quote
03-04-2011 , 05:31 AM
Bet turn if you're going to bet river.... Bet turn and expect a 3 on the river.
PLO25: hopeless bluff? Quote
03-04-2011 , 05:57 AM
i moreoften flat this hand IP than oop pre. give up postflop
PLO25: hopeless bluff? Quote
03-04-2011 , 06:16 AM
Vanhaomena & Spenda
At PLO25 against non-regs it's definitely not the same to bet $14 or $7, smaller bet will often get called lighter just as crashwhips said. I still think smaller betsizing is probably slightly less bad.

Anyway, just give up postflop...
PLO25: hopeless bluff? Quote
03-04-2011 , 07:47 AM
ty for th helpful responses.
PLO25: hopeless bluff? Quote
03-04-2011 , 10:27 AM
I'm as loose as it gets preflop, but I ]'m not a fan of this 3bet. Hands like 4455 and 2266 get you a lot of trouble with a lower SPR, it's pretty hard to get away from set over set situations (which were always on the wrong end of) in 3bet pots.

A Cbet here 3 way is suicide.

If you want to bluff people off of more pots, fire more 2nd barrells on the turn instead of taking a bet check bet line. You want to have your opponent's range nailed on the hand to bluff a river profitably.
PLO25: hopeless bluff? Quote
03-04-2011 , 10:30 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vanhaomena
Cliffs: when the splittable nuts (mostly straights, maybe boats in extreme cases) are piss easy to make, betting big is a mistake regardless of hero's hand
Of course at PLO25, the rake kills you for this, but people will pay you off with TTxx to make up for it.

Not betting the nuts OTR is a bigger mistake than betting the nuts big, on the other hand.
PLO25: hopeless bluff? Quote
03-04-2011 , 12:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by yrmom
I'm as loose as it gets preflop, but I ]'m not a fan of this 3bet. Hands like 4455 and 2266 get you a lot of trouble with a lower SPR, it's pretty hard to get away from set over set situations (which were always on the wrong end of) in 3bet pots.
3bet is fine here tho not completely standard. Your reasoning is flawed, you want to 3bet these type of hands partially because of set over set situations. For one, your 3bet discourages btn and blinds from entering the pot, and if they're not in the pot that's less people that can overset you. Also, if the flop is K95r and you get the money in a single raised pot, you're often going to be oversetted but are going to have trouble getting away from it (and if you do get away from it you could be making a big mistake since villain could just have top 2 or pair plus triple-gutter). On the other hand, if you get it in on the same board in a 3bet pot you're going to be crushing their range and can happily stack off.

Set over set in hu and 3 way pots isn't that common even in Omaha, if it seems like it is, that's because many players at low stakes PLO are only putting a lot of money in on the flop in single raised pots with a set or better.

Also, the reason I think this bluff is not utterly terrible is because utg has taggish stats and button is passive fish and you should never be bluffing or vbetting less than the nuts in this spot, so I think he would bet if he had the straight, and so you can weight his range away from the straight and only have to be really worried about getting through button. And if you were going to bluff, I think somewhere from $8-$12 is the best sizing.
PLO25: hopeless bluff? Quote
03-05-2011 , 11:07 AM
I didn't say I hate this 3bet I'm just not the biggest fan of it. I still do it sometimes, too. I'd rather 3bet hands like TT33ss or JJ22ss than 4455ds by a longshot, but we work with what we get.
PLO25: hopeless bluff? Quote
03-05-2011 , 12:39 PM
+1 to crashwhip

its good/necessary to 3bet to thin out the voume and multiwayness of dryer overpairs which cooler our hand+ we have position, (i wonder if everyone goes crazy im pretty sure its +Ev to flip preflop aswell?)

TT33 JJ22 are pretty similar in strength, at least 4455 has alot of str8 board combinations...
PLO25: hopeless bluff? Quote

      
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