Poker Stars $200.00 Pot Limit Omaha Hi - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Hero (SB): $581.25
BB: $272.70
UTG: $211.55
MP: $259.25
CO: $347.90
BTN: $200.00

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is SB with J K Q 9
4 folds, Hero raises to $6, BB calls $4

Flop: ($12.00) T 5 J (2 players)
Hero bets $10.00, BB calls $10

Turn: ($32.00) A (2 players)
Hero checks, BB checks

River: ($32.00) K (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $15.00, Hero raises to $75.45\

Villain was 23/10/1.4, wts 38%, w$sd 40%, in about 100 hands. No more reads.

What do you guys think? His check behind on the turn + bet sizing on the river represents low flushes or the nut straight the majority of the time imo. Maybe sometimes he can turn low 2 pair or a set into a bluff, but I think it's rare.
Do you think I can represent the nut flush (I have the nfd blocker) and make him fold a high % of the time?

I actually like it. Villain seems nitty enough for this work. I wouldn't look too much into his high WTSD as that's probably only based on 3-4 pots he's been involved in. I don't think you need to make it so big though, 58.50$ gets the job done just as well.

I would like it better if he bet bigger. A lot of times when people bet small like this I find they are trying to induce bluffs/don't plan on folding and want to make calling a raise cheaper. That said he has nitty stats and you do have the nut blocker, so it's definitely a viable play and I would expect it to work enough to be profitable. If I were to make this bluff, I would definitely be mashing the pot button because of his small bet size that he made to seemingly price himself in to call.

i don't really like your line. if i was villain, i'd never believe you would c/r instead of betting the nutflush.
so his bet represents a flush, probably a decent one. if you think he's bluffing much, you can call with your nut straight. so if he's betting for value with a flush here, he's gonna call you imo.

i think i'd just 3barrel him here.

i like it if he's a really good player, it's bad vs anyone else.

Seriously don't try to bluff someone with such a high WTSD. You can do that vs people who loves to see monsters everywhere. Not vs a huge station. It's only 100 hands but his wtsd is off the chart so I wouldn't be surprise if once his stats has converged, if he would still be over 30%. as a default, at 1/2 I never ever fold a flush there.

idk is it really good or bad, but i think willian will be thinking that you might bluffing here a lot because of his river half pot betsizing (which is look in your eyes like a cheap bluff or a value with a small flush) and after you cheked two streets.

hope that didnt sound dumb

+1
very strange line u took by checkin turn and c/r river reppin only one hand the nut flush

agree, think a lot of villains talk themselves into a call with almost all flushes here.

I think repping the nut flush is a bit of a stretch.

Your check on the turn, followed by a check on the river is a little too fine. If you had the flush, that's taking a big risk with the nuts that your opponent would bet the river. With that line after turn is checked through you'd have to stab at the river with the nuts or you'd potentially lose two streets of value trying to be tricky.

I'd struggle to believe that story. With a nut straight or lower flush he has a perfect bluff catching hand. I'd often call that line with most flushes.

ur line makes no sense

Just to clarify, on naked A bluffs (K in this case)in general.

The reason they often don't work is that people try to be tricky with them and usually decide to make them on the river. Hence the story is disjointed. If you'd bet out on the turn and the river, it would be a tough call for any hand on the river. Even a check on the turn and a lead on the river paints a better picture for you. As played I'd put my opponent on the nuts just slightly more than 0% of the time.

Personally If i'm making a play repping the nut flush I'd rather rep the hand as obviously as possible. Big bets on turn and river. You're saying to your oppenent "I HAVE THE NUTS!!! ARE YOU LISTENING, THE NUTS I TELL YOU!!!!"

At least if you do get called down with a straight or weak flush you gain a lot of information about your opponent and his tendencies to call down light.