This was a hand I played live at Dusk Till Dawn in Nottingham (UK) this Saturday evening.

UTG + 1 is TAG good, thinking and experienced, button is LAG has shown some gutsy and creative bluffs and has been paid off with the nuts a few times as well. BB is a gambler and not a good player.

Blinds £2/£2

Stacks
SB 200
BB ~ 30
Hero 200
UTG+1 ~170
MP ~ 130
CO 200
Button ~ 400

Dealt to Hero: QQJ5

Hero calls, UTG +1 calls, 2 folds, Button calls, SB folds, BB Raises to 6, Hero calls, UTG + 1 calls, Button calls.

Flop K103. (pot £25)

Checked around.

Turn K.

Checked around

River K.

BB bets £25 and is basically AI, Hero Calls, UTG + 1 folds, Button Raises to £72, BB calls ~£2 more.

Hero?

dont know what u think he is raising with since there is literally no reason to bluff here unless he thinks JJ is good and ur folding exactly QQ since its what u have damn near always with this action.

Just fold, expect to see bad aces or some KTxx that didnt wanna bet the flop/turn for whatever reason.

I guess the point is that he has "literally no reason to bluff here" as you said, and yet I can't imagine a LAG player 1) flatting the button pre with any AA hand, then checking this flop back 2) not betting trip kings (or the overfull) OTT.

lag might read hero for best hand and fish for third best hand and attempt a multipurpose raise.

is lag aware the fish is nearly all-in?

doubt anyone is doing this at 1/2 live, just fold

str8, thats what I was saying, which means he has exactly JJ and is trying to bluff out exactly QQ, which is optimistic to say the least.

OP, overlimping something like AA82r OTB here is pretty standard IMO, and its what I expect to see somewhere in the neighborhood of 90% of the time, with the rest him having KTxx that didnt bet the flop for god knows why, and then checked the turn since its doubtful anyone calls after that action and hes got the field almost always dead to 2 outs.

Sure, but I can't see him checking back the flop once its checked to him with AAxx.