Folks, I really need honest opinions on this because I know why I did it, felt good when I did it, but is this the right thing to do?

I actually messed up a bit in this hand and forgot that it was 4-way and not 3way. PFR bets flushes. When he doesn't lead this flop,I feel confident he doesn't have an FD. Other villain was playing something like 30/19 and had bluffed a few pots. I actually had bluffed him off a hand before HU with a large reraise. I had nothing but air, but he folded.

I thought my F/E against him in this hand was minimal but I wanted to blast out whatever equity was in the PFR. But, we had an UTG limper that I honestly forgot about. Huge mistake, huge huge mistake. If I had known he was there, i fold this hand. For the sake of discussion, let's assume he isnt there. I mean he did fold here, but we're fortunate.

Is this a profitable line to take against this villain? He pots into 4 people, so that shows strength. If he just had an FD I doubt he pots because he'd want stacks not to blow out the rest of the field. But maybe he has top 2 and an FD. Possible.

Here's my thinking. If villain has a set we've got outs and he'd need to have Kh,Ah sooted to have us crushed. Not impossible, but if this is how he plays that hand, he's not getting value.

Villain might have top 2, but my overpair helps if the board pairs and it's not the top 2. I also have 2 clean outs.

Lastly, I have 2's, 3's, and 7's for straights. It's unlikely the villain has all 3 of my ways to improve beat on this flop. So I thought I had at least 40% equity against the range of hands he'd bomb with on this flop.

Are we making a good move here?

Your str8 counting is shall we say ambitious...I think you should just call the flop and play in position.

7's should say 6's. Sorry about that.

wp - you have lots of equity vs. most stuff (specifically everything except KK/AA with better FDs), and i don't think seeing a turn helps you make better decisions

you are 3:2 dog against a bare set and 7:3 dog against nut FD with a pair.really should call here

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call or fold imo.
i would very often jam here against a normal bet, but given COs nice sizing tell, and it being multiway, i don´t think we need to get involved here too heavily. call or fold, actually leaning towards folding.

To me the decision was raise or fold. Ideally, I could bluff scary turn cards, but I wouldn’t be bluffing…lol. Calling also gives a great price for PFR to call. I’ve got the 3rd nut flush draw here and if I can kick out K-high I will. If I get run by A-high, well then I should have folded this hand preflop. To me the reasons for raising are that we have some F/E, we’ve got 3 separate draws, the worst of which is to the nuts (binking a Q) but the other two could be live, on has to be live. Worst case is a hand like A399 suited to the heart. That type of hand must be included in the range here.

I did this after the fact, but tried to do so in the hand (in my head and I got a 45% number) as well, this was not an instaship, that’s for sure.

I say we assume he has a higher FD + Set 30% of the time. Against those hands we have about 18% equity. About 40% of the time, he has two pair and no FD. About 20% of the time I’ll give him a pair + FD (lower) and a wrap. And finally 10% of the time he folds his equity to us and we take it down.

Running sims through pro poker tools we get a merged equity of 53% on this flop. If I give him sets + FD 50% of the time and take it from the two pair plus FD we go down to 44% equity. I know I’ve done equity calc’s before where I was the one betting big on this flop and someone came over the top with a hand I didn’t expect and sure enough they had 40%+ equity against me and I considered folding. So my in the moment 45% number doesn’t seem too offbase.

By raising, we get to realize our equity and get our hand in at the peak of our equity (be it 18% or 65%+ against a rundown) against his assumed range. How the cards run out is a bit irrelevant if our read is good and we make a plus ev play. I’ve been watching a few poker vids and running equities of the video presenter versus hands he went in against and what at first looked like dubious plays really turned out to be +ev. And when I thought about what cards could come on turns and rivers, I was pretty amazed. By could, I’m not talking 2 outers.

I don’t like calling here though guys. Call seems like such a passive line and he might fold to our flush bet if we get there. We don’t want that, we want him to call us and only his sets will. Rundowns will shut it down. If we brick the turn, we don’t get to see the river because now our equity is much less with only one card to play and we’ll need to fold simply because may not be getting the right price (assuming he pots again). Though on brick turns, say a jack, propoker tools doesn’t show our equity decreasing all that much against our range. Calling is hoping we get there and folding turns if we don’t. Raising is saying we’ve got equity and charging him to prove his hand is better.

I like that style a bit better.

Getting it in is not bad but if some one else shows interest and gets it in your screwed. You have like no fold equity against a pot sized bet...he's getting it in. I mean I'm not folding many turns but getting to see if the action explodes behind us is beneficial. You also May be able to fold on non heart cards in between 5 and 9 besides the 6 obv

Are people actually suggesting to fold OP+OESD+FD here?

The man has arrived.

I would fold on the flop for sure. Thinking the flush is live is kind of ambitious. Imo we are just fliping at best and we rarly if ever dominate his stack off range, evenif its plo10.

There is always an exception to the rule, but if the player isnt a complete ****** this is an eazy fold.

I don't know what land you live in, but set+FD is a rare hand

sensible potting range on CO here:
http://www.propokertools.com/simulat...5%29&s=generic

Our equity against such a betting range:
http://www.propokertools.com/simulat...2s3h&s=generic

Set+ better FD combo count
http://www.propokertools.com/simulat...4%25&s=generic

Combo count of range that gets to flop
http://www.propokertools.com/simulat...5%29&s=generic

Seeing such numbers, we can make a few conclusions:

1) Set+FD is rare as ****

2) All of you guys should totally keep on folding our hand here and then come play me HU

so you have 30 percent chance to lose your entire stack and 70 percent to win a small one.sure is a negative ev situation

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nh

if it was MP leading flop it would be much closer, vs CO this is just snap gii

U either have best hand or best draw vs one opponent usually. Wp and u force some random 45 and 94 etc to fold behind you by raising