BTN: $173.14 (Fish)
SB: $122.75 (Good regular)
BB: $114.80 (Rock)
UTG: $68.06
Hero (CO): $160.86

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is CO with 8 J J 7
1 fold, Hero raises to $3.50, BTN calls $3.50, SB calls $3, BB raises to $17.50, Hero calls $14, BTN calls $14, SB calls $14

Flop: ($70.00) 9 6 6 (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, BTN bets $70.00, SB folds, BB folds, Hero...


Button is a fish, 52/20/11 and goes to showdown a lot.

It took me almost the full time bank to make a decision on the flop. Would be interesting to know how others would reason here.

We can discuss preflop too (I think limping may be better than raising) but the most interesting part is obviously the flop decision.

Just 52/call flop.

It's pretty close. It comes down to whether or not you think he's ever potting with anything other than 6xxx or 99, and I think he is. Most fish don't bet full pot with a full house in this spot (99 is less likely than 96) so i would guess most of the time he has 6xxx or a draw (nut flush draw+ or T87+) and maybe 1-2% of the time is bluffing. You need ~40% to put it in on the flop and vs a super tight range of just 6xxx you have only 31% but when you start adding in even just the nut flush draw your equity bounces right up above 40%.

I assumed his range is top 50% of hands without top 5%. It doesn't change a whole lot if you make it top 40%.

All in all it's a pretty close spot and one that can go either way and would usually come down to your general feel of how he was playing at the time (aggro? spewy? nitty?), whatever inclination of his play I had is what i'd go with.

Regarding preflop I don't like limping. I think if you want to have a limping range it should be at least hands that invite multiway action (nut flush draws, high pairs) - with JJ87ds you want to clean up your outs so your flush/straight draws are better. You also want to try and buy the button.

I did consider that option. But decided to be a bit more cautious. Say I bet 52 here and button calls, then SB shoves. Then I am probably up against either trips and a better flush draw, or a full house. The preflop 3-bettor (BB) has AA here like 99% of the time and if he decides to find out if his AA is good, my overpair is useless. Then I will have invested ~$70 and will either fold (because I think I am totally crushed) or call off my stack with horrible equity.

I'm not saying that betting the flop isn't a valid option, picking up this pot would be a great result and with two people already having checked there should be some fold equity. But in a way there are TWO players left to act since if SB has hit this flop, he's probably checking it to the raiser.

If it gets checked around that's not exactly a disaster either.


Hey Godlike Roy, good to see you. I remember you fondly (in a mostly heterosexual way) from BTP*.

My reasoning was similar to yours. First off that he wouldn't pot it with a full house in this situation, his bet looks like he doesn't want to get called. So no 96xx or 99xx.

Any 6 is definetely in his range and I do think he might pot it on this drawy board. I'm not good enough to know the exact equities against a range here but my process was something like:

- Full houses are not in his range, so if I am behind I am drawing live.
- He could have a six, this will taint some of my straight/flush outs. But only if he has a bigger flush draw to go with it am I in real trouble.
- If he's pushing the NFD my overpair is probably good because he would probably re-raise AKKx or AQQx preflop if it was suited (he 3-bets 11%)
- He could also have a worse hand in both directions, like a wrap with a lower flush draw or no flush draw.

In hindsight I guess he could also have an overpair, a janky KKxx or QQxx hand, but that did not occur to me at the time.



* What did you end up doing with BTP? I've looked for it a few times because I recall there being some great stuff on it, from people like you, Monk and WM. Did you scrap it or is it still around somewhere?

The content is backed up and saved somewhere, it just needs to be put back online.

I think janky KKxx and QQxx are only a small part of his range and probably doesn't change your equity much anyway.

Results?

I shove for $73.36 and he snapcalls with his magnificent 7 2 2 8

My equity: 84%

I hit the flush on the turn, dodge the ducks and scoop.

But the price for todays worst played hand may have to go to UTG and CO in this hand:

CO: $82.10
Hero (BTN): $210.35
SB: $136.05
BB: $116.62
UTG: $85.40
MP: $100.00

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BTN with A 9 A 4
UTG raises to $3.50, MP raises to $12, CO calls $12, Hero raises to $53, 2 folds, UTG calls $49.50, MP calls $41, CO raises to $82.10, Hero calls $29.10, UTG calls $29.10, MP calls $29.10

Flop: ($329.90) 3 5 8 (4 players)
UTG bets $3.30, MP raises to $17.90, Hero calls $17.90

Turn: ($369.00) 8 (4 players)

River: ($369.00) 6 (4 players)

Final Pot: $369.00
CO shows A 6 7 J
UTG shows 9 3 T J
MP shows T J Q K
Hero wins $366.00
(Rake: $3.00)

Despite those two hands, it was a breakeven session. Go figure.