Poker Stars $5/$10 Pot Limit Omaha Hi - 4 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked

BB: $145.00
CO: $1925.00
BTN: $813.50
Hero (SB): $990.00

Pre Flop: Hero is SB with Q 2 J J
CO raises to $35, BTN calls $35, Hero calls $30, 1 fold

Flop: ($115.00) 6 8 5 (3 players)
Hero bets $80, CO calls $80, BTN folds

Turn: ($275.00) T (2 players)
Hero bets $180, CO raises to $813


What do you think of this raise size? Suspicious enough to stack off or no? Only reads are his stack size and the fact that I play at Stars all the time and don't have any hands on him.

I think i don't want to stack off with 4th nuts without redraws (besides 9:spades) here.

How the eff is this worthy of posting, and how are you considered remotely decent at plo...by any standard?

i don't hate a call here, 695 to win 2025 and he either is on the lone ace bluff or he isn't. his range is prob skewed a bit toward suited aces since he raised PF, and it kind of sucks that there aren't really any lower flushes he could be raising for value (you have Js in your hand, Ts is on board, and the 9s is half a straight flush), but he might occasionally be reverse-semi-bluffing a straight or semi-bluffing a set or has air and just doesn't believe you. plus obv you'll suck out sometimes.

Unless he is a huge nit or something I think you have to call:

QsJcJs2h 47.09%
As***,Ks*s**,88** 52.91%

Well, I don't see 88 call/raising ever. I think if he's got a set, he either raises the flop or flats the turn. Also, I don't think it's a hand range question so much as it is a "how often does the naked ace call and then make a pot-sized raise on the turn compared to a made hand".

I am mildly curious what this guy thinks though:

Are you saying it's an easy call? An easy fold? What? It's not the most in-depth hand in the world, but I don't see why it's a bad post or anything. Also, I'd love to see a graph of your last 100K hands if you're really that much better than me that you find this to be a completely trivial spot.

I agree this is how people play, but I think call/raising 88 is very good.

Looks like a super-simple fold with the 5th nuts. Doesn't even seem like a great place for a naked Ace bluff when you could easily have a straight flush.

I prefer a fold pre-flop - it's a weak hand and you're OOP.

This is why it's an even better spot for a naked ace bluff than normal, b/c guys like you with Q-hi flush say "well, he could have the straight flush or should be afraid that i have the straight flush" and talk themselves into a fold when the straight flush possibilities on both sides are relatively negligible.

I think you're out-levelling yourself.

No I'm not. Yes, the call/raiser could have a straight flush, but the Axs and Asx combinations are an order of magnitude more important. And from his side, the frequency with which you fold a non-nut flush or a straight is greater than an order of magnitude more important than the possibility that you decided to fancy-play-donk a straight flush.

But what you're effectively saying is we should always stack off with non-nut flushes because we might be getting bluffed by the naked Ace (or maybe naked 7 here), and I don't think anyone would seriously advise that. The Q-high flush here is no stronger than the 3-high flush, or for that matter a straight, right?

Occasionally you'll be getting bluffed, but that's how Omaha is. I think you need a seriously good read to stack off here.

I did not say you should always stack off with non-nut flushes, and I can't imagine how you read that into what I said.

i think as played and data given i fold it and wait for better spot with unknown plr
but i think u should bet only 1 of the streets (flop or turn) for pot control and see how the action go
u bettin very strong on ur flush draw and u cant realy get value by worse hands in my opinion and can get bluffed by anaked A

He probably knows, but it won't help you. The games play much differently at .05/.10.

but he plays plo *pro*fessionally!!!

I think calling with 88 then shoving the turn is a very good line. Even if you take 88 out of the mix and assume he only bluffs As 1/2 the time, it's still a call IMO.

I'd fold this for the simple fact that we're basically bluff catching against an unkown in a weird line that doesn't add up. Is he really floating you on the flop with the naked As all that often? I mean he's an unkown, theres a player left to act behind him on the flop...thats a bit of a stretch imo to put him on a naked As bluff and kinda feels like you're talking yourself into a hero call.

OK, we've got a lot of discussion here, but we're still not commenting on what I'd think would be the key questions of the hand:

1) If villain does decide to run a naked ace bluff, how often does he raise the flop compared to waiting for the turn. By comparison, how often does a made hand raise the turn vs. raising the flop or waiting for the river.

2) If villain decides to bluff/raise the turn, how often does he pot it vs. making a smaller raise. How does this compare to his raise sizing with a made hand.

Edit: See Scoot finally commented on point #1. FWIW, I feel like point #1 is the main argument in favor of folding while point #2 is the main argument in favor of a call. Well, other than the fact that with a double-stack and the fact that I've never seen him before, I'm guessing he leans a little toward the laggy side.

I don't think folding is terrible, but I don't think this line is unusual with the naked ace at all. It's en vogue to go for the power-play delayed-raise bluff, while conversely, slowplaying your nut flush for exactly one street is falling out of style.

If you're basing your call on point 2 then I think you should fold.

Im not leading flop here vs unknowns... ever

u told us u dont got any information on the plr so i realy prefer fold most of plo that r not regulars and play in 1 or 2 tables r mostly live players that love to just call on flop with the nuts and than cr turn thats how i see it.

Actually, I don't think point 1's that strong either, BTW. I tend to generally treat turn raises as stronger than flop raises in this situation, but with the stack sizes, it does seem kinda awkward. Like it would make more sense to wait for the river with the nuts here.

Also, good point by noynoy on the thought that this could be a live player for whom this might be a totally standard line with the nuts.

sweet, i didn't know 2+2 let you text-message in your replies.