live 5/5 nlo 250bb spot - Small Stakes Pot Limit Omaha

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live 5/5 nlo 250bb spot

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02-11-2012 , 03:00 AM

timetowom

banned

Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 2,887

5/5 nl 500$ buyin 10 handed mostly crappy nl holdem players. 4 20 year olds and rest 40+

hero $1500
villain $1250

6 limpers, I raise button with AJ69ds, 4 callers, 300~ in the pot

Flop AA5 two diamonds, 3 checks, villain bets 250 with 1k behind.

hero??

I got into a discussion with someone better than me and we disagreed whats best. Id like to hear peoples thoughts on how to proceed. Villain in this hand is one of the 20 year olds and his brother is also at the table. Hes pretty TAG and he plays kind of snug and I believe this kind of money means alot to him.

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02-11-2012 , 03:47 AM

Your Mom

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2003 Posts: 13,495

u have diamond draw?

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02-11-2012 , 03:54 AM

timetowom

banned

Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 2,887

Quote:

Originally Posted by Your Mom

u have diamond draw?

no diamonds

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02-11-2012 , 03:59 AM

Your Mom

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2003 Posts: 13,495

i'd start with a call and play poker on the turn.

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02-11-2012 , 05:03 AM

bdsinc

enthusiast

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 75

New to PLO but are we supposed to raise pf here??

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02-11-2012 , 06:57 AM

urubu111

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 6,778

call. whats the turn?

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02-11-2012 , 08:26 AM

j.a.o.p.

old hand

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 1,529

you are 40/60 vs his range....you need
45% to get it in (0FE)...
or 20%FE
so....shoving is worse than folding.

supposing we always get it in when we hit turn...calling generates $45

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02-11-2012 , 07:21 PM

timetowom

banned

Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 2,887

Meh I raised the flop to 700 and he tank put the rest of his stack in with AK73 no diamonds. My reasoning was even the times he has A5 or 55 I have 9 or 10 outs and the flop is the only point I can have any fold equity and him folding AKxx and AQxx is pretty key. I discounted him having A5 here a little as id assume he'd check to let me cbet or bet smaller than 250.

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02-11-2012 , 07:42 PM

MauriceSch

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 1,660

rofl why would he ever fold AK that's insane. No offence, but I would have guessed a bigger part of your thoughts were like " I HAS TRIPS YAAAAAAY".

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02-11-2012 , 10:49 PM

#10

RolldUpTrips

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 1,349

I hate the pre raise...live very few players mess around on AAx boards. Call on flop has to be best

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02-12-2012 , 01:56 AM

#11

iggymcfly

runs good at HORSE

Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 26,044

The only time you have fold equity against AKxx or AQxx is when he misreads his hand. Raising flop is real bad.

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02-12-2012 , 12:30 PM

#12

timetowom

banned

Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 2,887

Sigh

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02-12-2012 , 03:04 PM

#13

phunkphish

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 2,902

I think you have really thin FE against idiots who bet, then panic when they realize they have AQQ3, or A346. But, really, just call. Odds are your J-kicker is behind.

PFR is not bad, considering you have position, a decent hand, and you're playing against a bunch of noobs.

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02-12-2012 , 11:27 PM

#14

guimz

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 1,285

Just flats this flop and wait for the turn.
Do not bet if you dont turn/river a FH...

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02-13-2012 , 01:59 AM

#15

JackWraith

adept

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 997

lol @ anyone folding trip aces in live poker?!
where are these games you guys play in?

concerning the hand: obv call & spike

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02-13-2012 , 08:06 AM

#16

guimz

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 1,285

You must flat flop but you may fold turn if vilain bets again on K,Q,T,8,7 Imo.
You can decide whether to call or fold on 2,3,4
Obv you jam 6,9,J
Do not bet if checked to if you don't hit. There is alot of K,Q in his hand and it would be wrong to try to make him fold a better trip now.

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02-13-2012 , 02:50 PM

#17

timetowom

banned

Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 2,887

Yea I mean like I said in op no one here is good and if they get raised the agonize always if they don't have the nuts like every hand is a cooler. He tanked like 3 minutes before putting it in. Hes folding AQxx a huge amount and im sure AKxx sometimes. I was justifying what little extra fold equity I could create to make up for the % im behind.

If I didn't have 3 live cards then id flat. If someone who's better at omaha equity calcs could show me how often he needs to fold for it to be profitable vs Axx5, 55xx, AKxx, and AQxx that'd be cool.

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02-13-2012 , 02:52 PM

#18

timetowom

banned

Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 2,887

Also if we have Axx5 here we have to raise the flop right?

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02-13-2012 , 03:11 PM

#19

bigoiltrader

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 466

1. Yes you have some fold equity v AK. 2. He never has a hd weaker than AK. 3. Your outs suck- you think you have 9 or 10 but if he has a hd like AKQ9 (and if he's snug-tag his range has a lot of shares/overs to your J and 9) then obv he has redraws so you're only ~32%. Just fold flop unless you think you can bluff a lot of turns. But with 800 in the pot and 950 left you prob can't bluff turns bc everyone in plo (even the "good" plyrs) is a fish and no one knows how to bet anything less than something close to the pot.

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02-13-2012 , 03:20 PM

#20

Scrudge

grinder

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 666

Quote:

Originally Posted by timetowom

Also if we have Axx5 here we have to raise the flop right?

In fact it doesn't matter what we do if we got A5xx, since:

1. He ALWAYS got AKxx or AQxx and,
2. He ships it on every turn.

In theory it even might be better to flat so we can evaluate if the turn is Q or K. But then you will have to be really sure in your reads, folding on a Q turn would be completely disastrous if he happens to have something like AK22.

But anyway, raising flop with A5xx=calling and getting it in on any turn, for obvious reasons.

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02-14-2012 , 01:06 PM

#21

iggymcfly

runs good at HORSE

Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 26,044

Quote:

Originally Posted by timetowom

Yea I mean like I said in op no one here is good and if they get raised the agonize always if they don't have the nuts like every hand is a cooler. He tanked like 3 minutes before putting it in. Hes folding AQxx a huge amount and im sure AKxx sometimes. I was justifying what little extra fold equity I could create to make up for the % im behind.

If I didn't have 3 live cards then id flat. If someone who's better at omaha equity calcs could show me how often he needs to fold for it to be profitable vs Axx5, 55xx, AKxx, and AQxx that'd be cool.

No he's not. You're completely wrong here. Sometimes live players like to look at their hand for a while before they get all their chips in just because they're nervous, but that doesn't mean he was actually close to folding. I mean, maybe once in a blue moon he has AQ with a pair in his hand and actually gets away from it, but if you think any live player ever under the age of 70 bet folds AQxx with three live overs and nine cards giving him the nuts, you're crazy mang. Just crazy. You get value from worse more than you get folds from better but that doesn't happen often at all either.

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02-16-2012 , 01:03 PM

#22

wull

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 216

Quote:

Originally Posted by timetowom

Meh I raised the flop to 700 he tank put the rest of his stack in

Quote:

Originally Posted by timetowom

If someone who's better at omaha equity calcs could show me how often he needs to fold for it to be profitable vs Axx5, 55xx, AKxx, and AQxx that'd be cool.

The following two analyses are for the decision on the flop when we have already put in $75 preflop.

As you can see here if villain folds 30% (blue) of the time it's not enough for our flop shove to be +EV (green),