Hero is on ~1100 from 500 not long after the game opened. Got money in with relative short stacks on KQ2 with bottom set and they each had a wrap and bricked. Villain in this hand wasn't involved but was watching; I c/r potted the flop after defending the BB.

Villain is a MAWG. No reads aside from the fact that he bought in with a stack of green and a stack of red, which usually suggests to me someone who's planning to play a long and deep session.

Two limpers and V raises to 20. I call from the SB with KdQdJh7h. Both limpers call.

Flop: JsJcTd

Checks to V who bets 65. I call, others fold.

Turn: 4s

I check, V bets 175.

I...?

Felt a lot like his range was [JT, TT], especially since I block some of the straight draws. Maybe he double barrels with AA if he has spades?

Thoughts?

He can barrel AA with spades and gutters here, he can also just barrel straight draws and flush draws I'd assume, given there should be a tonne of fold equity on a dry board and there's a few hands that can take 1 off on the flop and have to discontinue turn.

His value betting range on the turn should be most Jx, TT, JT. Don't think we can count AAxx or KKxx as much of a value bet on the turn when the hands he'd want to get called by have a lot of trouble continuing after flop and turn barrel.

I prefer x/c in this spot. It keeps all of the potential bluffs and semi-bluffs in his range. Raising doesn't accomplish much as worse hands/ draws (or hands we otherwise have an equity advantage over) can't continue against a x/r anyway and there's potentially a tonne of rivers we can bluff-catch or value x/r on.


Not worth considering blockers here as the spot isn't even remotely close.

what
first you wrote a paragraph about semibluffs

I think it's a fold on the turn. I hardly expect him to take this line with AAYX. His range is weighted toward JT, TT and AT.

The fact that he raised pre takes out a lot of worse tens here. The only one that you could possibly beat is something like T987, but even that I don't think he plays like this. I think he'll play T987 much like he would play AAYX, meaning bet flop, check turn.

Did you misread? Flop is JJT and we have KQJ.

Yeah, sorry. Change the rundown hands to J987, QJ98 or the like that you would currently be ahead of.

My point is that ATXY is going to play it like he did.

Your argument is that AT is a bluff here, right?

Let me clear up the confusion. I think that the villian's value range is TT, JT, and AJ.

As for him potentially turning other made hands into bluffs - the AA or AT of the world - I don't think it's going to happen often.

My point about weaker value hands, as weak as KJ (or weaker) they are likely going to check the turn. Now that is not to say that other players will overvalue (in some cases drastically overvalue) their trips.

I've been two barreled into with trips that were as weak as 9 high (obviously bad) - what do you hope to get called with?

I don't think villian is likely turning a worse J into a bluff or a hand that has showdown value into a bluff because he bet into 3 opponents on the flop and when he gets called the worst hand that calls (only a fraction of the time) is a straight draw. Most of the time, however, it's a J calling. Therefore, without any read that this is a weak player - to which you have the opposite read, someone who is ready for a long session - I'd elect to fold this turn.

fold turn and pre

i'd 3 bet pre sometimes and fold pre if i died before the action got to me.