Live 1/2/5 game, hero has a tight image and people regularly comment that I always have Aces when I raise even though that's not the case. H has about $1500 to start the hand. V1 in this hand has been on a heater and has over 3k in front of him. He doesn't make a lot of mistakes calling on the river with second best hands. Saw him fold top set to a bet-call on the river on a board where a straight was possible.

6 limpers to H on the CO, including V UTG, and H pots to $45 with AsQsJcTc, 7 callers, both blinds folded.

Flop ~360

Ks8c8h

Checks around.

Turn ~360

Ac

Checks to hero who tank checks. Button checks.

River ~360

Qc

V1 bets $150. Folds to H who contemplates potting to $810. I don't think V will ever call here unless he has 88 or possibly A8. He almost never has AA given the action preflop as he likes to raise. I think he may call with A8 because he blocks AA but could potentially fold for such a large raise. He would also have to fear KK and QQ with that hand. I really think I'm only getting looked up by 88 here and button only has about $200 so it's not a high risk of him calling if he happens to wakes up with a boat. What do you guys think about this spot. We only need this to get through over 60% of the time to be profitable.

If you're so confident that villain doesn't have a boat, then why not take your 3.5:1 odds and call?

Unless you're saying that you expect villain to show up with boats more than 80% of the time here and you expect him to fold more than half of the boats in his range?

Or you think there's a good number of K high flushes in his range, but hardly any Kc bluffs in his range?

I think V is basically never bluffing. I think his range is K high flush and boats, but I think he almost never has AA and can only really call her with 88 and AA. My only concern is if I'm overestimating my fold equity in this spot but it seems like we should fold him out over 60%.

I think this is a fold. You represent so little here, basically QQxx exactly. KK would have found a bet on the flop or turn. AA probably would do the same. You'd have bet an 8 on flop or turn as well, so don't even represent Q8 very well.

There are so many better spots to bluff in PLO rather than try to bluff someone off a boat. I would not make this move.

Even if you have really nice blockers with the A & Q and can probably represent AA, KK & possibly QQ pretty well it's not recommended to pot size bluff into 7 players.

There are only 2 players left at this decision point.

Half the players I usually play with would check/call KK on the flop and turn and lead the river.

I'd rather bet the turn with the threat of following through in the riv, esp with your image.