How often sb has overpair
Join Date: Sep 2014
Posts: 41
We open from CO only SB calls flop comes 338r
How often SB has 3xxx or JJ+
Lets say sb 3bets top 4% of hands and calls next 6% of hands.
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 12,241
what are you opening?
Say you opened AK66ds
Omaha Hi Hand Count ?
dead cards: 3c8h3dAsKh6s6h
Hand Optimized Count Base Count
(JJ,QQ,KK, 3***) 37099 (13.70%) 93596 (34.57%)
Omaha Hi Hand Count ?
dead cards: 3c8h3dAsKh6s6h
Hand Optimized Count Base Count
(JJ,QQ,KK, 3***):10%!3% 4974 (1.84%) 9256 (3.42%)
I get these but don't know how ot figure it out tbh
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 48
If I entered the syntax right on oddsoracle, then he will have JJ+ or trips 55% of the time.
edit: this is not taking account cards in hero's hand aka dead cards, so if hero had J,Q,K,A,3 then that will reduce the number of combos of JJ+ in villain's hand.
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 1,634
Join Date: Dec 2014
Posts: 55
my opinion: if someone could count this correctly than he would be a ****ing genius and win at all limits. In omaha are too many variables and too many possible starting hands in general.
If you know for example that someone is only playing 10% of his hands this doesnt mean that his top 10% for a specific situation are same like your 10% of hands. I think espacially in omaha everybody has its own way when it comes to handselection. Call it bad habit or and "idea"... how knows. ;-)
the question in this spot is usually who has the bigger balls. if he would donkbet me i would think: nice try and reraise because i would put him on air. But when he knows that i maybe think this way, then his donkbet would be great if he really has the 3...
Is this spot really so important? Aren`t there a lot more hands that are much more interesting/important?
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 12,241
That is a good point but it is incredibly useful to know such reference points. Always will players be subjectively tilting the variables themselves, thats the art side of the game. Any and every reference point is incredibly useful and important, including this one. And I would love to know for sure the maths, I don't use things like poker juice, but there are so many stats from other games, stud games and holdem, which aid in my ploi because I understand more 'blocks'. FOr instance I use the information I know of a suited connector in holdem outflopping AA to be about 9% so when I see AA int heir range and 67 suited in my range I can imagine what the flop variables look like, these 9% reduces alot the thought power I need to work out the relationship between the other 2 cards and mine. Even when looking at 7s7s9d I am using so many different stats as reference points.
The key to a solid game and being able to put in mass volume and make fast decisions is having reference points to remove the cost of energy put into calculation. It will help your bluffs and sizing a tonne aswell.
Join Date: Dec 2014
Posts: 55
i trie to answer how many times sb has "one" 3 in his hand..
we have 211876 different possible starting hands when the flop cards are out.
When we calculate how many times he has hands with "one" 3 in it the formula should be: 46x45x44x2 / 24 = 7590 -> 7590/211876 = 3,6% about...
I don`t know if this is really correct but i think the direction is right. 3.6% is the possibilty if "all" hands are in his range. Now its a bit of work to think about which kind of startes which include a 3 you should deduct. But imo 3,6% is so low that it is enough to say that is quite unrealistic that sb has a 3.
Maybe someone can correct me.
The chances of SB having a hand with a pair of Jacks or better pair is about 10 % imo.
So: I think its fair to say that the chances of running into a situation where the SB has a 3 or JJ+ is about 15 % and you should fear more the hig pairs than the 3s. I hope this is correct (please correct me if i am wrong). Maybe that helps you.