He flopped the nuts, now what? 25PLO - Small Stakes Pot Limit Omaha

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He flopped the nuts, now what? 25PLO

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09-11-2009 , 03:30 PM

SeeThomasHowl

veteran

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 2,487

BB is 56/7 w/ a 3bet% of 2 over 201. Do we peel here and jam any non board pairing turn? Or peel and c/f any card that doesnt give us more outs?

BTN: $43.19
Hero (SB): $25.00
BB: $42.76
UTG: $28.12
MP: $23.35
CO: $36.39

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is SB with J

UTG raises to $0.85, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.75, BB raises to $3.40, UTG calls $2.55, Hero requests TIME, Hero calls $2.55

Flop: ($10.20) 8

(3 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $10.20, UTG folds, Hero requests TIME

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09-11-2009 , 03:52 PM

cobrastatus

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 2,319

Pot equity is 36%, you need 40% to shove for neutral EV, so I guess it is correct to fold, but I hate it. Honestly I don't think I'd fold.

I wish it was A89, not A78.

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09-11-2009 , 03:59 PM

elsterner

newbie

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 48

Seems like an easy fold to me. Best case scenario we're up against naked aces but the pf jam oop in a raised pot indicates otherwise. Seems like the c/f isn't even an option (either fold or push), especially oop.

Last edited by elsterner; 09-11-2009 at 04:09 PM.

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09-11-2009 , 04:11 PM

jwc529

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 5,112

peel and then fold a pairing turn if u think he has AA here always, which he probably does
9 gives us the nuts and any card higher gives us a str8 draw

I'd only consider folding if the ace was a club leaving us with a non-nut fd and him possibly having the nfd as well

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09-11-2009 , 05:02 PM

elsterner

newbie

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 48

Quote:

Originally Posted by jwc529

peel and then fold a pairing turn if u think he has AA here always, which he probably does
9 gives us the nuts and any card higher gives us a str8 draw

Using that line more often then not your giving your money away. Even when picking up the nuts with a 9 or club you can push for 45.6BB giving him better odds for a redraw than what we had on the flop.

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09-11-2009 , 05:14 PM

SeeThomasHowl

veteran

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 2,487

[QUOTE=elsterner;13067425]Using that line more often then not your giving your money away. Even when picking up the nuts with a 9 or club you can push for 45.6BB giving him better odds for a redraw than what we had on the flop.[/QUOTE]

So c/f the flop? I should have mentioned I was 99.99% that he had AA**.

Theres no way to continue in the hand and preserve any kind of FE, thats not really the concern. Im was just wondering what people think is the best way to continue equity wise.

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09-11-2009 , 05:17 PM

elsterner

newbie

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 48

Equity wise folding in the spot is the way to go. Bite the bullet re-up to $25 and pick a better spot.

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09-11-2009 , 05:29 PM

heh

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 10,270

Shove or fold. Calling to see one card is just such a massive -EV move for many reasons.

If villain has a tendency to tilt, I'm likely to shove in these spots just because it leads to more money if we win and if we lose, we can always win it back against people with those stats.

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09-11-2009 , 05:35 PM

SeeThomasHowl

veteran

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 2,487

Quote:

Originally Posted by heh

Shove or fold. Calling to see one card is just such a massive -EV move for many reasons.

If we knew villain had aces, what would be the difference between shoving the flop and calling the flop and getting the rest of our stack in on turns that dont pair up? Other than the fact that w/ the latter we save 44bbs when we're drawing dead?

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09-11-2009 , 06:06 PM

#10

jwc529

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 5,112

Quote:

Originally Posted by heh

Shove or fold. Calling to see one card is just such a massive -EV move for many reasons.

we're not calling to see one, we're calling any turn except for the board pairing
so we're calling twice most of time, and shoving if we hit

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09-11-2009 , 06:29 PM

#11

elsterner

newbie

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 48

Quote:

Originally Posted by jwc529

we're not calling to see one, we're calling any turn except for the board pairing
so we're calling twice most of time, and shoving if we hit

We pick up the nuts 37% of the time on the turn and it only holds up 75% to SD and given the line SD is inevitable due to stack sizes. I can't really see this ever being a profitable line. If there were someway to gain some FE (larger stacks) it might be profitable.

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09-11-2009 , 06:35 PM

#12

shpongled

centurion

Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 138

A shove is terrible. It's even more incorrect because of the 5% rake at these stakes.

A call is better because it gives you a chance to get your money in in a better situation or avoid getting it in in a worse situation. It gives you a distinctive mathematical edge over a shove.

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09-11-2009 , 06:40 PM

#13

cobrastatus

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 2,319

Quote:

Originally Posted by SeeThomasHowl

The difference to me would be stack sizes. If you call his flop bet here, you have about 40 BB in a 120BB pot, and if you do make this call and fold routinely when the board pairs, you will be spewing all over the place. If both you and your opponent are deep, I would definitely call, as I think you're sure to get paid off on a club or straightening card.

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09-11-2009 , 06:43 PM

#14

FrenchyLions

enthusiast

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 50

You got the equity to call and probably some fold equity if you hit on the turn.
Anyway, this is a "EV neutral" situation so it doesn't matter if you fold or call as it's a coin flip, either way your decision will be the good one.

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09-11-2009 , 06:46 PM

#15

elsterner

newbie

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 48

Quote:

Originally Posted by cobrastatus

Agreed

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09-11-2009 , 06:57 PM

#16

cobrastatus

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 2,319

Quote:

Originally Posted by FrenchyLions

with 40BB into a 120BB flop, I think OP has zero fold equity in this spot, at least at 25PLO. In fact, Villain would even have the right odds to call a shove on the turn if we shove on a straightening or club card:

40/200BB = 25%

Equity on say on a straightening card:

board: Ac8c7s9h
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
KcJcTcQs 75.67% 451,910 4,235
AA** 24.33% 143,855 4,235

Whereas, our flop call with 100BB stack sizes is very marginally minus EV. Shove here and embrace variance, I certainly wouldn't fault anyone if they did, I'm not even sure if I would fold.

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09-11-2009 , 07:02 PM

#17

jwc529

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 5,112

i guess if it's near neutral i like to gamble a little and hit, maybe send him over the moon in tilt

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09-11-2009 , 08:11 PM

#18

SeeThomasHowl

veteran

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 2,487

Quote:

Originally Posted by cobrastatus

Wasnt talking about doing this routinely. Given villain's PFR and 3bet stats + the way he played pf and flop its pretty clear he had aces here. And knowing the player a bit, when he potted flop, thats what he had.

Maybe Im dumb and just missing something here, but w/ the solid read, if shoving is EV neutral, how is calling and correctly saving 40bbs when drawing dead on the turn -EV? (preserving FE is obv impossible and was never a concern).

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09-11-2009 , 08:31 PM

#19

elsterner

newbie

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 48

Quote:

Originally Posted by SeeThomasHowl

The pot is 40BB and your putting 40BB into the Pot, but you're E=38%. Your knowingly committing money to the pot when you're a dog. If you're read is 99% why commit the extra money when you know your behind?

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09-11-2009 , 08:56 PM

#20

KiwiJuzzy

newbie

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 19

I really like calling the flop. Sure villain is gunna have odds to boat up but if a 5,6,T,J turns I think at these stakes there's a chance (albeit not a massive one) that he'll still check and we can see a free river, which is obviously awesome. Also, as mentioned already, we can get away when the turn pairs.

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09-11-2009 , 09:35 PM

#21

elsterner

newbie

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 48

Quote:

Originally Posted by KiwiJuzzy

There is -1000000% he is checking behind after a flat call on the flop.

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09-11-2009 , 10:55 PM

#22

KiwiJuzzy

newbie

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 19

There is a -1000000% chance any competent player checks behind after a flat call on the flop.

I guess the 56/7 opponents I see are different to the ones you see. The ones I see often need the nuts to bet, and get into check/call mode when they don't have it.

I play 25PLO btw.

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09-11-2009 , 11:28 PM

#23

Darkens1

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 301

Quote:

Originally Posted by elsterner

Because you can win more on the occasions when your hand is good than it will cost you if you loose. If we are 100% about the aces then the initially counter intuitive move of calling twice changes this play from a slight looser to a slight gain. Around 15% of the time we save 40 bb. Thats a 6 bb swing in equity which is pretty huge.

No way I could think this through in game while multi tabling though. Anyone really reckon they could?

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09-11-2009 , 11:53 PM

#24

SeeThomasHowl

veteran

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 2,487

Appearantly side cards matter. lol

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 Pot Limit Omaha Hi - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BTN: $43.19
Hero (SB): $25.00
BB: $42.76
UTG: $28.12
MP: $23.35
CO: $36.39

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is SB with J

UTG raises to $0.85, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.75, BB raises to $3.40, UTG calls $2.55, Hero requests TIME, Hero calls $2.55

Flop: ($10.20) 8

(3 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $10.20, UTG folds, Hero requests TIME, Hero calls $10.20

Turn: ($30.60) 4

(2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $15.30, Hero calls $11.40 all in

River: ($53.40) T

(2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $53.40
BB shows A