villain 31/19 over 32 hands



Is this a good spot to throw in a c/r bluff and follow through on most rivers? I mean, we have a bunch of equity with our FD and pair, an 8 blocker, I think we can rep a lot of hands and should get to fold a bunch of better pairs and naked FDs, if not now certainly OTR.
The only problem I have is choosing a raise size because with the nuts I probably just wanna put in as much as possible to charge his combodraws. With this hand however I'd like to leave me the option of r/f vs a shove whereas potting probably commits me.
Is that something I have to be willing to accept or does that mean I should also make it smaller with my value hands here?

Yeah not bad i think. But you should bluff on blanks obviously.

on a board like this where there are many blanks we should be happier to c/r a smaller size with the nuts and our bluffs.

This seems like a good spot. What sizing would you use if you weren't potting?

Donk turn

Maybe I am a nit OOP but, preflop is not a fold?

On turn, it just depends on how your overall strategy is. If you check/raise the nuts here then yeah, but if you donk it instead you should donk bluff too.

Defend pre - ainec. Lead turn

If you choose to defend your BB with hands that seldom hit the flop hard, you have to be ready to make moves on that type of boards (hitting your range OK, while missing your opponent's often). Otherwise you will rarely realize your equity and you're probably better off folding pre.

I think donking the turn represents 87xx better than a c/r : Would you risk giving away a free card with so many rivers that could out-draw you (clubs, a paired board, an 8 or 7)?

I don't think a c/x on the turn to represent the nuts is a good idea on this board texture. There aren't too many hands your opponent is bluffing with on this flop and I would be concerned by him continuing on this turn.

As played I believe your opponent normally has a set if not the nuts themselves 78xx(AA78)(J978). I feel calling and seeing your flush draw as cheaply as possible will yield you better results in the long run.

For if your opponent currently has the nut straight and you river a flush you will likely be able to get another bet off them if not stack a dominated flush they may have.

Either way this is a fold pre and a hand you don't want to go broke with.

Fold pre is horrible bad

this is just bad thinking, flawed, fundamentally wrong and not gonna cut it nowadays vs at least semidecent opposition.

I don't think c/r turn, lead river is good vs a PLO25 rando. You need a read that villain is at least capable of making big folds.

id appreciate it if you could elaborate

well, it´s imo just having the mindset of only playing hands with nut potential and selecting your handrange by filtering them into groups to play and groups "you don´t want to go broke with" is just not enough reason not to defend and general the wrong approach to think about the game when in actuality you can very easy show with quantifyable math that not defending in this spot vs a 2.3x or whatever open is a pretty big mistake.
there´s nothing more to it imo

Do you mean a mistake in the sense that by folding hands like this we'd be allowing villain to open any four cards and profit because we don't defend enough? Or do you mean that we'd show a profit by playing this hand and thus we're lowering our win rate by folding?

isnt that the same in a way

Would you defend this if villain 2.5x with a 15% range?

No, it's not the same.

If villain stands to pick up 1.5 bb if we fold, but due to positional advantage makes, say, 3 bb if we call and play the hand versus his range, we should fold. It doesn't matter if that means he can open any four cards and take the blinds if us defending the necessary percentage to prevent this means his win rate increases and ours decreases.

As far as I can see, the only question when deciding to play the hand should be that if we call, do we stand to have a positive expectation? If it's profitable for us to play the hand versus villain's range, then we play; if it's not profitable, we fold.

I'm ignoring any meta-game effects of playing hands that lose in isolation but increase our overall win rate.