Live 2/5/10

ES: V - 1K and I cover; he is the UTG1 and he is an aggro player - this is his 4-5th hand at the table and he has already Rx and whiffed on a couple of hands.

Hero - in Button - image is tight but capable - has shown a bluff or two but mostly has it;

Pre - he raises to 40 over a couple of callers, I pot it for 130 with AA94dd and straddle calls and he calls

(400) Flop 823r, I bet 210 (should I have potted here or bet more?), only V calls

(810) turn Tc bringing in FD, he checks, I check (should I have potted?)

river 4s, he bets 500 - Hero?

I have seen him bluff scare cards and he is knows I am capped when I check turn.

I think I pot the flop -- max pressure. Turn is OK. River is player-dependent: Obviously a lot of hands beat us, but it's a good board to bluff to get AA to fold.

Preflop I personally only call with ss AA unless TJ+ or shallower stacks. Or unless villain is huge aggrotard/maniac with 0 fold button.
Because my image reps AAxx when I 3bet so I rather have super nutted AA or play some more speculative 3bets range.

Flop fine as played. Or can go bigger and commit yourself.

Don't think I will ever check turn once it's played like this.
Ship turn. You only lose to 2pairs and sets. He has to have quite some 1 pair hands here.
We have gutshot+2outer set as back up.

River might look him up.
Villain is repping 22xx 33xx 88xx 8TTx 456x 345x, a5xx, type hands.

Only a5xx, 5678, 88xx and 8TTx makes some sense in utg open range.
Imho, he has alot of 8xxx.
At the end of the day it's a soul read situation.

I guess I don't like committing on turn after the smallish flop bet because it let's him shove w/ everything that beats us, but we do have lots of outs if he has two pair. Then again, why is he checking turn Does he expect us to bet

This is a 2 spr pot flop, Turn it's less than 1spr, AA is the nuts here on turn unless villain is slowplaying sets or has 8Txx/TTxx here.

I guess that's why I like a check and then a call on a blankish river. If we shove the turn, he can fold anything he'd bluff the river with. (I don't bet so small on the flop.)

He has a hand that still has alot of equity vs us.
Checking lets him get there for free. Then we'll be in this kind of guessing game.
I rather let him be on the guessing game side.

Imagine we had pure air or draws only here, he'd folding as well?
Alot of people live can't find the fold button live. They're massively overcalling with random hands that they think they have draws to.
Imagine you were villain with 89jQ, can you really find a fold after investing so much money in this hand??? Now it's only like 6-700ish to call off. Or 8xxx with the bdfd, can you really find a fold??? You have massive equity in the pot.
Even if you had naked 8xxx, you might be find it hard to fold, you'd be saying to yourself, omg what if we had a bluff, what if we get there on the river or whatever the nonsense logic is.

Everyone live thinks that even if you were behind, you can still get there. If you were ahead, we'd be good!!!

*edit* If he has naked 8xxx, if all his outs are live, he still has 11 outs which is like 22% equity on the turn.
But most of the time, he'll have it with at least a gutshot.
If we add a gutshot to then that's 15 outs = 30% equity.
If he has more than a gutshot+pair then he has massive equity. If he folds any equity hand vs us, I think I'm fine with it. If he calls jam with massive equity, I'm also fine with it since we are still ahead.

I wouldn't be here...

Pot flop, ship turn, e z game

Flop bet is fine, you want to make bluffs cheap! If you have no bluffs you can pot.

Turn is a very obvious pot for me, just get it in now, you have decent equity.

River as played is a call for me. That's why you checked the turn to catch the river.

Agree with the above that I should have potted turn and see how he responds.

For some reason, I thought he might have 2pr. (bottom 2) on flop and maybe bluffing on river even though I block the 4

He showed Q856 for top pair on flop, and nuts on the river.

Afterwards, he told me he would absolutely fold on turn pot bet as he didn't have any clubs (which the turn brought) and had put me on an overpair.

Ah well, on to the next!

Bottom 2 is a shove on flop.
A wrap is a shove as well.

Most of his range is 1 pair type hands(including overpairs) or drawing to a straight(oesd or gutshot) that calls the flop.

Tbh, I probably shove with his hand as well. He has a gutshot+2 pair draws, your range on this flop is overpairs at best normally, but his range is stronger than yours and has enough equity even if you call or fold.
Occasionally you cbet with random air(high cards) which still has alot of equity vs his specific hand.

So yea, it would've been a great result for you to get opponent to fold a 30% equity hand.

This is not a garbage flop at all. It’s great for both our hand and our range. Pot flop and ship every turn.

I like the 210 bet more so then potting it - potting it just allows him to play perfectly against you with an obvious AA. As played the turn is a blank - I would just jam it in to protect our equity. As played I would think he'd raise sets/two pair/456 OTF - he could have hands like A45/A58/A48ds I guess. Problem is a lot of hands got there by the river - I think I would lean towards folding.

Some good reasons not to pot flop where we give our opponent very easy decisions and fold out some hands that may want to chase. I like OPs bet size.

Shippity dipping this turn for sure

Isn't SPR <1 at turn ($660 stack vs 810 pot)? Why are people talking about potting, it's just a shove. I also think flop sizing was fine, leaving a sizable turn shove for max pressure.

Because it doesn't matter if there is 0,7 or 1,3 times the pot left. Just put money in and you'll do fine.