Are we getting odds to call? Who cks back this turn?


[converted_hand][hand_history]IPoker, $0.25/$0.50 Pot Limit Omaha Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #21509201

Hero (BTN): $56.76 (113.5 bb)
SB: $50 (100 bb)
BB: $50 (100 bb)
UTG: $53.87 (107.7 bb)
MP: $50 (100 bb)
CO: $72.70 (145.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with 8 8 A 5
2 folds, CO calls $0.50, Hero calls $0.50, SB completes, BB checks

Flop: ($2) Q 8 4 (4 players)
SB bets $1.40, 2 folds, Hero raises to $6.20, SB calls $4.80

Turn: ($14.40) T (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $9.50, SB raises to $42.90, Hero

Open this OTB against limper. Gross turn spot. J9 with clubs looks really likely. This is a PPT hand for me, but I am probably calling it off as I think we have the odds, but I am sure it is close. Will PPT it later if I get a chance. Interesting spot.

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation

476,000 trials (Exhaustive)

board: q84t

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
as5s8c8h	38.76%	184,496	0
j9cc,j9,ttjcc,QQj9	61.24%	291,504	0

Even against this somewhat ridiculous "cooler" range you are still getting odds to call. Need 33.8% I believe. Gonna lose a lot, but folding would be incorrect at 100 BB.

Or any stack size.

Raise pre.

Never ever folding turn. Fistpump get it in. There are a million two pair hands, one pair hands with flush or str8 draws out there, that we have crushed and only one str8.

LOL, that J 9 of clubs is likely. I think its a big leak to asume any scarecard always hits your opponent. With the K of hearts on the turn do you asume a set of KKK is very likely?

This is a snap dude...

J9 of clubs for sure. Lucky for us we hold the 8 blocking the straight flush vs quads river.

If the limper doesn't c/f a lot of flops and/or looseness of the blinds indicate a multiway pot post flop, I think limping BTN is fine.

OTF once villain calls I think he might have a top 2 pair/bottom set type of hand, waiting for a safe turn trying to get it in, or the JT9 wrap. It seems unlikely for villain to b/c a non-nut flushdraw OOP, besides maybe KKxx with spades or something.

OTT it seems unlikely for villain to consider the T of clubs as a blank enough card to get it in with his (flopped) top 2 pair kind of hands and will c/f most of those. I think it is unlikely we will get bluffed on this turn a lot, since we might easily have the nuts ourselves. We also have the most likely nut flush draw ourselves, so that leaves few semi-bluffing hands in his range. I think we only rate to get action by a straight on the turn and we don't really need to bet to protect vs. the hands in his range that aren't a straight (unless when he turned a flushdraw). All that being said, I think checking behind any 9, T or J turn is the clear best play. B/c any other turn imo.

If he is a fishy player who c/c flop AND turn, even on this run out, with non-nut flushdraws, sucker wraps and/or bad 2 pair hands, by all means bet the turn for value. Calculations from other posters already show it is a call if he does happen to jam, right?

LOL that there are a million two pair hands. Villain has a straight very often and when he doesn't his range is sets + FD's and stuff like pair/2 pair + 2 FD's.

But that doesn't matter since we have to call regardless of his range.

Why would we be doing this ? Think about your range here dude...If we are checking back here with this hand then our value range on this turn would only be a QQxx, 88J9, AJ9x w/nfd, or a wrap/fd type hand from the flop that completed a straight. But since we limped along pre we have SO few JT98/Q89J type hands (and our better QQxx will also be raising pre). So this is pretty high in terms of your range and you can easily handle a c/pot.

Fold or raise pre. Post flop is super standard to call it off.

Folding pre with a suited ace and a pair OTB is really bad.

agree i just dont like calling (although you can argue calling is still +ev, it's a bad habit to get into not to isolate limpers )

pre could go either way, depending on who's in the blinds and some more info on the limper. Bet more ott and never fold.

If villain exposes his hand and it's J9 and you fold , go down to the gas station and apply for a job.