Hi all,

10/10 plo5, $50 bomb pot, 7-handed, we have J9632 962sss. V is action and has shown his share of bluffs. Doesn’t always have it and read is he overbluffs.

Flop ($350): T87ss. We are second to act. We bet $350 $1600 eff. Only v calls in the cutoff.

Turn: Qs. We check and he bets $850. Hero? We unblock sets and two pair and block many flushes but he is repping a good flush which we lose to.

Thanks,
DT

Work out the probability any player has J9 on the flop.

List the combos you are targeting for value on the flop and their relative probability and equity.

Post this and we’ll talk what strat is appropriate.

I think it's a fold.. sometimes i feel like on these type hands if a player makes a good move you have to let him have it. Keeps your sanity.

I only play 4 card, but from my experience, I only get involved with the nuts or close to it during bomb pots. Flush-wise K high flush at minimum.

I did the math with somebody for 4 card bomb pots. Not 100% sure if it checks out though but it looks right.

This is the chance in an 8 handed 4 card PLO bomb pot, that someone else has AXss.

28/45 = ~62.2% Ac is in play
(28 unknown cards that other players could have. 45 unknown cards in general. The last 7 are the 4 in your hand and 3 on the flop)

7/44 = 7 clubs left of 44 cards if they have Ac (since Ac can't be "drawn" with their 3 chances to have a club as one of their 3 unseen cards)

So 7/44 = ~15.9%

15.9% * 3 = ~47.7%
(A players 3 chances to "draw" another club with Ac)

Then 0.622 * 0.477 = ~29.6%

Almost 1/3rd of the time someone will flop the nut flush/have a nfd.