So i was trying to analyse a hand i played and i cant figure out what is the best play on the flop, bet or check. The rest of the hand is not interesting in this discussion.

So the villain is just a random guy at 0,02/0,05 than i got 40 hands on. So i think that generally people play quite straight forward at this limit. They can often call pretty light, but only a small percentage call superlight. And often its gonne be pretty straight forward play.

If he has a king, two pair, overpair (AAxx) or trips im in bad shape. In best case scenario i have 4 jacks and 2 queens, which in the best case gives me 6 outs twice, but they are not clean: the jacks could be splitting and the queens could be loosing to a straight. Anyways, 6 outs is about 24% and if he has about 6 % chance of redraw to a boat i have like 18% approximately. He could also have FD along with these hands, and like i said, the outs doesnt have to be clean.So im in pretty bad shape vs hands that are better than mine at the moment.

So vs the hands im currently ahead, the 1pair hands, 7xxx or 9xxx has like 11 outs to two pair, which is like 44%, but of course i have some redraws then, so this has to be adjusted down some amount (anyone know mental rules here?). Also he could have a FD, OESD or some gutters to go with his pair, putting me in pretty damn bad shape percentagewise. If he has a lone OESD or FD he still got at least close to 10 outs twice. If he has no pair and no draw i guess he got like less than 10% or something.

The question is do we bet or not?

So if i check there is always a chance he will fire a random bluff at the turn that i cant call. If he has the hands i named that beat me, AA, a set, two pair im in very bad shape. And if he has the hands im ahead right now, i can still be in pretty bad shape vs two pair-draws combined with either OESD or FD.

But vs lone two-pair-draws i will just fold out his equity i guess. That is also true when he has nothing (<10 % equity hands).

So i find it a bit hard to conclude here. We want to fold out equity hands, and also we want to prevent him from sometimes throwing out a random bluff at the turn when we check the flop. But it seems the only hands we fold out with a bet are 1pair (2-pair-draws) and worse.

So we better just give up this flop and check because we will not fold out better (and have very bad equity), and when called by worse (two pair-draws, FD, OESD, and combos of these) they will ofte have decent equity, and sometimes heavy equity. But then again, the times we fold out the nothing-hands we may have prevented a turn bluff (which would have won the pot) as well as prevented their <10% equity from hitting runner-runner.

so do you agree or disagree to parts of my analysis?
thanks for comments

Bet 1 quarter + 1 dime + 2 pennies or 1 quarter + 1 dime + 1 nickel + 1 penny.

check, take a free card.

.36 is good+, worser the more station he is, better the less he random bluffs textu=re changhing cards, which is alot of the deck... be prepared to triple barrel.

most villains bettin is fine but turn river gets complex

you can't really anlayse this one street in such high spr scenario, you need villain reads, turn/river assumptions/ranges/meta so there is no black and white to check or bet... however raising wins money and if you check here they get reads on you.

I'm guessing we raised pre?

I like checking back as we have showdown value + 6 free outs to the nuts + blockers we can bluff off later sometimes.

We can call turn bets if we check the flop imo.