Hero is an Asian kid, showing down the nuts and near nuts all night. Has been seen flatting with the nuts and massive draws. AQ89, Suited AQ

V1 is a spot, gets it in pretty badly seen calling otr with middle 2 pair, and rejammed with a 3rd straight. $400 Older dude.
V2 is pretty good, aggressive pre. Straddling OTB. $2k Middle aged dude.

V1 calls
Hero is in CO and calls.
V2 checks.

Flop: k87

V1 bets out $50, hero calls, V2 raises to $250.

V1 folds, hero flats.

Turn $600, Q

What should hero do? I think V1 led out with a King and we hold the blocker to the 8. We have decent equity against J109 w/clubs or 6910 w/clubs. Additionally I think V2 will raise most KK OTB so KK is discounted, same with 88. 77 is still out there.

not such a clear post.
Missing stack sizes and villains description.

My bad, I added them. I actually thought I had written the descriptions but apparently did not.

fold flop

In position this is a call right? I realize in this hand I am OOP.

Ask yourself what villain pots flop with in position.
Consider you have NFD w/ A-Q, so the most villain could have is the Jc, which I don't see anybody raising the pot with into two people.
This narrows it down to KKxx, 88xx, 77xx, K8xx, and T9xx (2 clubs) or T96x (2 clubs).

I agree that villain likely would have raised his KKxx on the button preflop, so that is discounted. You do have an 8 blocker, so it is more likely he has 77xx, OESD, or a wrap + FD, but higher sets are still possible..

What was your plan on the flop, before you called his raise, if you missed on the turn, checked, and he potted it? If it was to call, you should probably just ship the flop.

As played, I'm checking turn, and folding to a pot bet. That would look too much like a set or top 3.

You don't post your stack size even with the update. If you're deeper than like $500 there's not a lot you can do except check and fold to a turn pot.

You mentioned that you've been flatting the nuts a couple of times, but it would be in absolutely no way credible to try to rep anything here as played, even if you were confident your opponent couldn't have weak KK. You've played it like exactly what you have and this board is too wet to reasonably expect that you would ever flat the $50 and then flat the $250 with a made hand OTF. The Q didn't complete anything, so you're just up a creek if your opponent has any brains at all.

No.

Well maybe I'm the spot in this game.

Did you get to river/ did villain show?

alexo should jump in and answer this question

Before the turn, V1 asks how much hero has, behind. Hero checks V then thinks five seconds and bets $600.

I still think K87, KQ8, 77, j109cc, 6910cc, 569cc, K8910, 456cc, comprises 90-95 percent of his range. Hero waits 45 seconds, and makes from what it sounds like, a bad decision by shoving $640 on top.

So my thought process was that if he folds >5-7% of the time its a profitable shove. I have anywhere between, 25-72% equity based off his range. I'm betting $1240 to win $1200. If he calls I'm betting $1240 to win $2040. I need ~40% to make this a profitable shove against his range of hands. I figure he's always calling with his wrap and fd combos which I have ~65-75% equity to win against. Against K87 and 77(I figure the 2 most likely hands, I have between 25-33% equity.

I also thought the hands most likely to have the 25-33% equity against me were most likely to fold in this spot since the shove over pot looks pretty strong and my value range is 88/kk/qq, potentially with clubs. I did not evaluate my line up to this spot though.

So I figured since I don't own odds oracle,

20% of the time, he has a wrap+clubs and calls with .7*.2
65% of the time, he has 77, K87, and calls. .65*.3
5% of the time he has KQ8/88, .05*.25

.14+.195+.0125= .35,

.35*$3040 =$1065

Assuming he folds 10% of the time, its worth $240.

$1305 in equity for a $1240 dollar bet.

Every percentage point he folds in this spot is valued at $24.40 and every percentage point he calls is valued at $10.65.

Hows my thought process here? I figure my line while its strong, wasn't as strong as I thought it would look in game, and I thought it was a profitable(yet high variance) push.

He's literally never folding.

What percentage of his range is wraps+cc/wraps and what percentage is 77, k87, 88, kq8, kk?

In my experience with middle aged dudes this is 80%+ a monster made hand, especially since you block the draw pretty hard.

Gii

Never folding the flop

Did you misread the hand?

shouldnt we repot flop?