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AKKJ5ds QT8r

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07-02-2023 , 01:41 AM

DumbosTrunk

Verified Coach PLO5

Join Date: Apr 2017 Posts: 8,164

Hi all,

5/5 with $15 utg straddle. This hand sb isos over a few limps to $120, he is an action player. Hero is in BB with AKKJ5ds a-high hearts k-high spades and 3! to $450, folds to him and he calls. We are $1750 eff.

Flop ($975): QT8hcd. He leads $600 with $700 behind. Before he called but after I 3! the KJ8 were exposed unfortunately. With spr under 1.5 we are really close to stack off equity required but it sucks to have the KJ out.

Thanks,
DT

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07-02-2023 , 05:09 AM

OmahaDonk

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 5,723

Weird spot, I haven’t run a sim but if he’s pretty wide I think it’s close. And when it’s close we are supposed to gambooool.

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07-02-2023 , 06:54 PM

frankyx

newbie

Join Date: Jun 2023 Posts: 26

53.7% vs 3-30% (so excluding top 3% of hands, up to top 30%)
51.1% vs 3-20% (so excluding top 3% of hands, up to top 20%)
46.3% vs 3-10% (so excluding top 3% of hands, up to top 10%)

Get the money in. You're doing pretty fine vs the range. Given they started with a SPR of 1.3, and 2 jacks are out just send it. Hopefully you're up vs 2 pair or like AQJ or something. Even so, you have 35.6% vs generic QQ, 36.8% vs generic J9 and you only need 36.3%.

Last edited by frankyx; 07-02-2023 at 07:01 PM.

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07-03-2023 , 06:49 PM

Round of 6

journeyman

Join Date: Oct 2022 Posts: 374

I dont think you have the equity to stack the flop.

Gut feel says call flop and play on improvements (e.g. straight, flush draw) with low spr on turn.

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07-04-2023 , 01:24 PM

frankyx

newbie

Join Date: Jun 2023 Posts: 26

Quote:

Originally Posted by Round of 6

I dont think you have the equity to stack the flop.

Gut feel says call flop and play on improvements (e.g. straight, flush draw) with low spr on turn.

I posted the equity - villain needs like 90% QQ or straight to make it unprofitable (assuming rake isn't disgustingly high). Given starting flop SPR is 1.2, seems like a trivial shove.

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07-09-2023 , 05:47 AM

Round of 6

journeyman

Join Date: Oct 2022 Posts: 374

Quote:

Originally Posted by frankyx

I posted the equity - villain needs like 90% QQ or straight to make it unprofitable (assuming rake isn't disgustingly high). Given starting flop SPR is 1.2, seems like a trivial shove.

You only ran equity vs preflop ranges and didn't make any adjustments to what hands he will do this with on the flop

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07-09-2023 , 01:18 PM

frankyx

newbie

Join Date: Jun 2023 Posts: 26

Quote:

Originally Posted by Round of 6

You only ran equity vs preflop ranges and didn't make any adjustments to what hands he will do this with on the flop

I posted equity vs QQ and J9. They need like 95% of holding to be sets or straights to make this unprofitable at normal rake. I find that unlikely with a starting flop SPR of <1.5

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07-10-2023 , 11:12 AM

MarkD

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2003 Posts: 4,650

I ran a sim and gave villain 20% hand range but then on the flop I said he is only leading out if he has (QQ, TT, 88, J9,KJ, QT). I've never played PLO5, but with this range you have 37.7% equity.

If you call, you should stack off on any turn card except a T or Q as you will have more than 24% equity on all cards except these ones (T drops wo 10-14% and Q drops to 11-13%).

Ship it or delay it, doesn't matter much, get that money in.

Having run the sim, I would now lean towards calling and folding on those 6 cards and shipping it on the rest.

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07-12-2023 , 06:08 AM

Round of 6

journeyman

Join Date: Oct 2022 Posts: 374

Quote:

Originally Posted by frankyx

I posted the equity - villain needs like 90% QQ or straight to make it unprofitable (assuming rake isn't disgustingly high). Given starting flop SPR is 1.2, seems like a trivial shove.

I'll grant you that shoving is not -EV. However I find shoving non-trivial.

I agree equity required to stack is 36.3%.

Mark's sim shows 37.7% equity (similar to what I get) so its a 1.4% edge on a $1,300 investment. Pushing a edge, yes, but miniscule.

But if you call and fold (Q,T,8) turns you generate a bit more EV. This is obv a simplified model where he auto shoves his flop range on turn, which is not how its actually going to go. But maybe the turn is a Q and he checks, you check behind, he then shoves river and you fold.

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07-12-2023 , 11:06 AM

#10

wazz

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 15,293

Quote:

Originally Posted by Round of 6

But maybe the turn is a Q and he checks, you check behind, he then shoves river and you fold.

Pretty disastrous for us if with any reasonable frequency he does so with a worse hand than ours

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07-12-2023 , 06:03 PM

#11

monikrazy

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 28,281

Quote:

Originally Posted by MarkD

This sim is way too tight. You need to add a lot more straight draws and 1p, hands that benefit the most from folds. Plus villain is probably wider than 20% and you have also not excluded or discounted aa.

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07-12-2023 , 11:00 PM

#12

MarkD

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2003 Posts: 4,650

Quote:

Originally Posted by monikrazy

It was never meant to be a perfect sim, but simply a fast one that, if it showed we had the right equity vs a tight range, would clearly show that we would have the right equity vs an expanded more precise range.

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