I mean, BTN ever having AA it would have to be AAQx/AATx or something and I do think that's very unlikely. I didn't have much of a read on him at the time but I assume even the worst of fish aren't bad enough to call twice with naked AA on that turn.

I'm not really sure what to make of variations in UTG's turn range given his sizing but I suppose it should make his range somewhat more QT-with-redraw heavy than had he potted it ("protect my hand!"). Again, I don't see him raising like this with a set.

i think u want 2 get more money in the pot ASAP and banking on a c-bet by an overpair is really not gonna happen on a board that crushes both EPs ranges unless he's a complete moron. you are flipping with a set and crushing everything else even without a pair. granted u have nothing at this point but plo is a game of upward mobility and realized equity. realized equity is very hard to come by without seeing villians cards but in this case u know exacty where u stand, your hand is essentially the same as top set. equity vs every thing here is at worst like 45% vs a set and upwards 2 like 65%. your ahead. you take the initiative. donking cleans up all your 2nd and 3rd nut backdoor fds which letting a free card come off could seriously hurt u and is a disaster. your hand is crippled if they pick u a better fd than you. how do u expect 2 get paid when u make your st8 if u dont bloat the pot and create a little deception. u can 1/2 pot value bluff if the board pairs and rep it. u have 2 backdoor flush draws that u can fire on the turn. u can pretty much fire every turn. granted firing the 1 backdoor flush d u dont have is prob not the best idea, but still not the worst.

All that sounds fine. Regarding representing things later on, I'm pretty sure donking doesn't allow me to represent anything that checking wouldn't allow me to, though? Would your take on the situation change if villain wasn't a fish? Because I expect most fish to simply pot/call any AA here, as it's still a "safe" board for him.

i'm really bad at this. i'm always the one in the live game who asks the dealer what is a PSB before i act. i think u can make it $230 when it comes back 2 u on turn. so SPR is actually like .5 - .7 with the effective stack sizes. honestly with the SPR like this i dont even care what draws they have. they have 2 have something unless they're complete droolers and shipping is really the only option.... when u invite the player behind u in who is not repping QT. what chops can u really blow anyone off especially with him 2 act after u.

UTGs reraise sizing on turn is borderline ******ed so what he could have is actually beyond me, but i think assuming QT is fine. If he has some sort of redraw with the st8 he should be betting bigger on turn which is all the more reason u should be shoving turn. With his sizing I kinds think a JJQQ hand might be in his range or like a AKKQ thats making some sort of suicidal play with a set/gutter 2 price himself in since the SPR is so small u cant really price any set out. That's all a stretch. QT is a fine assumption, but with his awful sizing what can u really assume.

I just think shoving is super risky. If 3 player get 2 the river after all that turn action and the 2nd card pairs and somehow no ones full i would be completely shocked. The turns makes it a rainbow board as well. i think it may be a profitable shove if there was a flush draw out there, but i also think that's 2 risky in a 3 player pot,

Please post or PM results so i can see what these idiots had.

when the flop checks through, you are in steal spot number 1 on the turn. none of yer bets carry nearly as much credibility since if it checks through to u again u should prob be betting yer entire range. this can be good or bad. but repping the board pairing just ain't gonna happen vs the fish if he has the over pair. when i think about how the hand actually went down now and that ep is a tag reg. his min reraising range becomes way wider since you are in the steal seat and sets/gutters, sets/blockers, or blockers/2pr could very well be in his range and he's just setting up 4 a river bluff. still prob just an idiotic way of playin QT tho.

if fish in lp has AA/KK hes not folding when u lead. he's not folding when u reraise his c-bet. i think it's much much better 2 clean up all those backdoors right now, take the initiative, bloat the pot a bit when u have the best equity. checking to the raiser with this much equity is a disaster in plo in 3 bet pots multi-way and causes way 2 many problems when everyone in hand is 100+ bbs deep. if this is a reg i like this line 2. this is a hand u wanna play 4 stacks with and have all the back doors nice and clean, get the money in now so u can play for it all on the turn.

So you flat the turn and hope to see a river that allows you to take the UTG off his QT? So your plan worked and you hit a J on the river right? Now you can bluff UTG off his Q10 right? You're still getting called 90% of the time by BTN with a full house. I feel that the only reason to flat turn is to try to get value from UTG on the river if he has a set, which you ruled out! What exactly do you want to happen when you bet 135 on the river? UTG fold and BTN to call with aqk9? That's the only situation that I can think of where you make money with the river bet.

What I would like to happen on the river is me betting $85.7 (which is what UTG has left) - which is essentially betting $22 given that UTG is always folding (not that it necessarily looks stronger, I just think that betting BTN's stack might get a crying call from UTG's QT) and that they both fold. As long as BTN doesn't have a boat more than 85% of the time it's the best play. I'm not at all sure that's the case.

You not only need him to have a boat less than 85% of the time, you need UTG to fold 100% as well... It's a crazy river bet IMO.

I did some simulations with propokertools and I have 49.75% against J***, 53.2% against AA** and 45.6% against KK. As his range is presumably weighted towards AA** and KK** I don't see how I'm ever ahead, though. Even against a hand like 7755 I "only" have 57.4%.

I'm pretty sure UTG is folding close to always as I think his turn range is QT**, and I don't think that if he did end up having a boat with JJQT or JJQQ or whatever that he would check the river.

So what do you do if UTG bets river?

When in the hand are these calculations?

I get confused and fold, putting him on a boat. He's most certainly not shoving naked QT into two players when the board pairs.

Flop.

u do realize that if u bet flop and they both call, yer probably like 40-45% 3 way unless another player has same wrap. that seems profitable 2 me.

Sure, but why should I feel the need to force money into the pot when I don't even have a pair? If you switch the 2 to the J or 9 I could see why you'd feel a need to donk bet simply to prevent him from checking back AA or KK (as we're now 58% against AA** rather than flipping, for example). But I don't see why you think it's a clear cut case where donking is by far the best option? Is that what you think?

u have a monster. all outs are nuts. u can play 4 stacks. yer bet can stand a raise and not lose a penny in EV and then u can define yer opponents hand. u can play all turns properly. can AA? thats a clear advantage. there's actually fold equity. by taking the initiative u can barrel a blank turn knowing that if u get raised there u still have in the neighborhood of like 33% maybe even 45% if u have a flush draw. u can barrel if the 3 pairs, knowing full well they can't rep a set but u can. if u make it to the river and have faced alot of opposition you make very few mistakes because u have nothing or u have the goods..... if yer not betting on the come in spots like this in plo yer not playing right.... u can actually get it in vs JJ35 here and not lose a $1 in ev if u include the fact that the pot was bloated by 3 bet pre.

please tell me u we're check raising pot if he c-bet so i don't lose all hope.

Granted, I'm following your logic. Yes, I can get stacks in here against top set and not lose money doing so. But just because one play is profitable or not unprofitable, doesn't make it the most profitable one. What exactly makes you think that donk betting here is clearly more profitable than checking? What factors would you consider in determining this? It's obviously very hard to quantify exactly how profitable a play is compared to another one with three players of varying stack sizes on the flop in the game of PLO, but you have to be reasonably sure of your case since you seem to advocate it so strongly. And just to be clear, I'm genuinely interested in why you think donking is clearly MORE profitable than checking, because that's the only reason why you should think donking is best (obviously). I'm not arguing for the sake of it.

there is no definitive way 2 play 1 hand obv

1. sucks if flop gets checked through. your ev could drastically go down. this flop checking thru is a disaster for your hand.

2. this is not a flop that gets c-bet without the goods meaning top 2 pair or better. way 2 easy 2 get jammed on. J9, 9T flops crush cold callers of 3 bets range. 2 pairs, sets, wraps

3. taking the initiative allows u to credibly lead turns and get folds on the come. fold equity is profitable

4. u have 2 backdoor flushes. clean up those outs with 1 player folding

5. lets bloat the pot when we got the goods. define ranges. people do stupid **** when the pot gets big.

6. u stand 2 make alot more donking than c/r pot on the flop with less risk. hey they could actually all fold on the flop is that bad u don't even have a pair like u said.

i feel like i've said these things like ten times now

you do realize why u check raise full pot vs a c-bet tho right? u get folds in a bloated pot which is really profitable or u flip.

maybe i'm wrong don't think i've played more than 100 hand of fifty cent -1 lifetime. maybe this level things plays different. i have the flu can't sleep grouchy. just trolling the forums. i never post strat ever. bored.