shiip it holla, especially against a fish who can definetely c/r worse than a flush

Yes I know, but there are slices like this i.e

0% ------->>>>>>>>>
PPT 10%= ¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦
PPT 15%= ¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦¦

But the villains ten percent = ¦¦¦ ¦¦¦¦¦ ¦ or even ¦¦¦ ¦ ¦ ¦¦¦ ¦¦

Speaking generally in vacuum, Much of 10% is 'expected' to fold preflop but 25% isn't, and that folding range is the part where the AA has the big edge against villain on the flop, which folds, which gives the illusion of b/f being good.

May have worse equity vs the 25% but that means it is getting in at higher frequency and the equity is still ok, and it's about frequancy of +ev to -ev rather than avg equity at the flop without action.


The 'just' ('only' or 'alone' or 'justified') part in your original post means that you do not consider an alternative. I cannot find a fold vs a CR here at any size. Yes but even so the CR range is still weak enough to shove against. The CC range is way stronger. I am happy to see a CR here, happier with the fold of course but who gives a **** if they got lucky and had the 65.

How often you reckon villain hits flush here by the way? Maybe I am totally undervaluing it and the monotonous board is actually horrific, I jsut ignore them ont his SPR but if the honest ratio is very high then meh but I'm thinking of c/f opposed to b/f. Maybe we should be checking whole non blocker range on this flop

sale chien means?

Yeah basicly everyone is shipping it because of the math behind it but the question if b/f or even c/f is good here is a good one.

The biggest problem will be our assumptions because we cant/have no proof for them.

If we assume villian is tricky, agg., passive - different approaches will bring better results.
Generally we can +Ev jam and in this case even b small/c vs shove.

The problem was bad pot control IMO. Villain isn't 5 betting so you are left with bad SPR' s that let him play his entire range vs your broadcast AA perfect and he only needs 1 pair to not be in that bad of shape. I wouldn't let it get to the flop like that where a short stack gets to play you perfectly while you are completely lost.

Why are we assuming a 44% range for villain? He made a 3bet here, which should narrow down his range quite a bit. I'm going to assume a 10% 3bet range at this spot since this stat was not provided. Our equity vs a 10% range is 39%, which is far worse than our equity vs a 44% range (45% equity).

If he's stacking off on the flop with (2pair+, pair+oesd, wraps), we get a fold 39% of the time. When we get called our equity is 24%. Total EV of the play is 5.60$.

If we tighten his range to J6+, he's stacking off 45% of his range and our EV goes up a little to 6.10$. No matter what he's stacking off with, we are always profiting from jamming. For comparison, our EV with a much worse AA hand, AsAd6d4h, which has no GS and no club blocker (which is significant, even if it's a low club), is only 1.50$ vs a light stackoff range, and 4.32$ vs the tight stackoff range.

We do see that our equity vs his stackoff range is pretty low, and it's pretty high vs his folding range. That does mean that if villain plays his range honestly to a small bet and always plays jam/fold, we can gain EV by bet/folding. However, at this SPR, what we gain from bet/folding is a quite marginal improvement unless his stacking off range is super tight (J6+). If he's sometimes flatting the small bet with hands that would have folded to the jam (one pair hands, pair+gs), then this play becomes quite sub-optimal pretty quickly imo.

It would have a lot more merit IMO if SPR was 1.3/1.4 and not 1.1 like here.

Good post, I think I'm convinced jamming is optimal w/o any more reads on villain

Shoving is EV+ and without read is the only decent play agreed.
What bothers me is that against his range we have about 44% equity i.e. EV=$13.
By shoving our EV drops to $7.

http://hh.pokerjuice.com/hh/EGqicsocic
Range for villain is PJ 15% 3b oop minus AA**.

You are ****ing terrible at this game if you think like this. EVen if he plays perfect against AA he still goes busto with preflop action provided hero is not folding too much.

=======================

Already said this but with regards to his 3b range, 10% is not a good range to use in this spot, he is not selecting within PPT rankings preflop.

=======================

That poker juice thing, just put in T*** or 6***, it will be more reliable than T6+, that is far too narrow, unless the T6 is measured vs a blind hand opposed to these aces.

so do we jam or bet small if we had flopped the nut flush here?

FishNoob, by 10% 3bet range I didn't mean top 10% of hands according to PPT, this is obviously unrealistic. I meant a 10% 3bet range as defined by PokerJuice, which has a lot of stuff like 5678ds or 8844ds, which are obviously not in PPT 10% and resemble a real 3betting range much better. I went over this range and it is quite diverse and has a lot of playbility balanced with highcard power.

guimz, I understand your concern that we realize less than our 44% equity in the pot if we look at the EV of jamming, however, I think it's a very unrealistic comparison. Our position is basically meaningless at SPR1, so the only thing that decides who realizes more equity is the range distribution. As we've seen villain's range is quite polarized, where about 40% of his range has really bad equity vs us, and 60% of his range has crushingly good equity. It's obvious why he would always realize more than his fare share of equity while we will always realize less. Our hand strength is very close to the average strength we'll have on that board, and he's going to play his range pretty much perfectly against it if he has a decent understanding of the game. Those are the mechanics of the game and there's no real way around this, unless he's playing very bad (and then we can bet/fold).

You would fold on spr 1 with AAxx vs reasonable players?! ..
Seems to be a huge leak.

If you think jamming a pot sized bet when your hand is face up while the opponent gets to play perfect is +EV good luck with that. All he needs is a pair to call for the right odds because he's getting 2:1 and only needs ~33%. But go ahead, be a dbag about it

Oh ok, well I don't get this poker juice ranges then. I think good players will adhere to ppt ranges pretty closely in their own %'s, what hands are int he PPT 10% but not in the pokerjuice 10%?

AsQdQh4c is barely int he 10% vs a random hand, Nothing wrong with 3bing this AQQ4r if you are 3bing 8844ds (your postflop play changes of course but why would one be more profitable than another)

I have to be brutally hoenst because of all your bbv delusional ramblings ect. YOu are terrible at this game and there is proof in your poker cognition. Instead arguing further and defnding yourself why dont' you jsut trust me and the math represented in the thread and admit you are fish. Then you can grow. Preflop is super standard perfect optimal line and postflop is really insignificant. BB did not allow space for any kind of postflop edge to be attained, he can only reduce his overall losses at this point with selective folds.

take a look at their website Fishnoob, all their ranges are described. They seem quite cool to me...
Also they created IP ranges and OOP ranges as so IP ranges are for value and OOP a mix of value and playability.

Vektor is just thinking about postflop, he clearly doesn't see that 4bet preflop creates unexploitable +EV line that is just completed with flop shove. Yes, villain can make +EV decisions postflop. That doesn't mean hero has to make -EV decision. On the flop, both players will often make +EV decision in the long run.

If Vektor really thinks that it would be better to just call pre with aces instead of creating SPR 1 with 4bet, I agree that it's a bad PLO thinking.

zzzzzzzzzzzzzz

The 5b statement clarifies any doubt that he is talking about post flop.

The first and best victory is to conquer self. To be conquered by self is, of all things, the most shameful and vile. - Plato

The guy really does think he is good at PLO and attributes losses to runbad over small samples. Then he reveals such bad poker thought and cannot accept that he is objectively wrong. The more subject thoughts that I see in his strategy I also think are terrible mostly. I am doing a service by highlighting such things but 98% of poker players are actually delusional, I was one. There are axioms in PLO that are not open to discussion. Full potting preflop here as default line is one of them.